Well, it’s the final Round of Pool matches, and in some cases, it almost feels like a round of 16 weekend, given the do or die nature of some of the matches. Italy need to somehow dig deep and find the inspiration to make life difficult for France as they have on occasion in the Six Nations, even though the likelihood of them progressing to the knockout stages at either New Zealand or France’s expense is rather remote to say the least. Samoa are in a similar situation against England and have to hope that either Japan or Argentina do them a favor, assuming the Islanders do the unthinkable and knock off an already qualified English outfit on Saturday.
Then, there’s the epic encounter between Ireland and Scotland with more mathematical permutations than most hedge fund managers have to deal with on a daily basis. It is essentially a must win for Scotland. Ireland also need a victory, but were the Irish to lose, they would have to carefully manage the scoreline till the final whistle to retain their Pool domination and route to a quarter final with New Zealand.
Then, on Sunday, it’s do or die for Argentina and Japan, with Samoa looking on anxiously from the sidelines if they pull off the upset of the tournament the day before and beat England. Last but not least Australia who for all intents and purposes will be making their seat selections on Sunday for the long flight home, will still be watching Fiji and Portugal’s encounter clutching every rabbit’s foot they can collectively find. If Portugal as one of the tournament’s favourite teams for all the neutrals upset Fiji, then Australia could suddenly find themselves having to put those flights on hold for a week as they find themselves with a quarter final spot against all odds.
That’s what got us talking this week, but also the fate of three teams that after this tournament, we want to see a LOT more, namely Portugal, Georgia, and Uruguay. We’re frustrated by how they are getting locked out of top-level competition by World Rugby for the next 4 years, despite the governing body’s adamant claim that they want to grow the game globally. This topic, in particular, kept our pints frothier than normal as we sought to look at the options for making continued exposure for these three countries a reality.
So without any further ado and before our resident scribe and his family head off to France for the Quarter-Finals, let’s get into it.
Can we please see more of the these three in the next four years – a LOT more!
Uruguay, in their opening game against France, had us spellbound and have done so ever since. They have an absolutely committed and powerful forward pack, a talented halfback partnership and some genuinely silky backs all of whom have provided us with some glorious entertainment, especially when they gave the tournament hosts France some serious food for thought. Georgia’s never say die attitude is always inspirational, and their traditional forward power is now allied to some genuinely exciting and dynamic back play. Then there’s Portugal, who have become solid fan favorites here at the Lineout. We shamefully have to confess to knowing little about them prior to the tournament, but they are now firmly on our radar for the future. With each game, they have gotten better and better, and even against big teams like Wales and Australia, there have been no outright thrashings. They have been competitive and a joy to watch, as have their exuberant and passionate fans.
There have been strong cases made by all the Tier 2 nations during this World Cup both on and off the pitch for more exposure to Tier 1 nations. However, sadly, it seems to be falling on deaf ears as World Rugby seeks to consolidate the power of the major Rugby Nations in the next four year cycle. Tier 2 nations will be all but excluded from access to Tier 1 Tests in 2025 and 2026 as a result of World Rugby’s new competition starting in 2026 between the Six Nations and Rugby Championship countries. They may have some access to France, Italy, Argentina, New Zealand and South Africa in 2025 when the British and Irish Lions Tour Australia, but apart from that it’s slim pickings to the point where some could end up like Samoa having only faced one Tier 1 nation in an entire World Cup cycle.
A plate competition has been proposed by many, and we certainly think it’s a good idea during the World Cup, but World Rugby looks set to firmly quash that idea, while at the same time determined to expand the tournament to 24 teams for the 2027 edition in Australia. Unless something drastic is done during this next World Cup cycle, all we can see is this expansion providing the big teams with even more cannon fodder training games during the Pool stages. A plate competition would give teams like Portugal, Georgia and Uruguay something to play for after the Pool stages with these teams having caught the imagination of millions this tournament, while at the same time giving them more exposure to knockout international rugby. While we understand the cost implications of such a move, surely the long-term benefits in terms of ticket sales and TV rights would offset this in the long run.
So, if that’s not on the table, then ensuring that these countries get as much exposure as possible in the next four years will be vital. 2026 looks set to be a lost cause, but in 2024 and 2025, priority must be given to getting these countries access to their Tier 1 colleagues. Outside the Six Nations and Rugby Championship windows in 2024, the July and November Test windows should feature Tier Two nations as much as possible. In 2025, those players not selected for the British and Irish Lions Tour to Australia should be playing Tier Two countries during the July Test window. Also, Italy, France, South Africa, New Zealand, and Argentina, who will not be involved with the Lions, should also make themselves available. In November, the same should apply as from 2026 Tier 2 countries look set to be cut off from their Tier 1 counterparts for both the July and November Test windows. As for 2027, it’s hard to judge as outside the Six Nations and Rugby Championship, there will be the inevitable warm-ups come August, which should see Tier 2 nations getting some exposure.
In short, it’s not all gloom and doom but in this critical next four year cycle, in order to build on the momentum made by sides like Portugal, Georgia and Uruguay, a genuine commitment and effort really needs to be made by World Rugby. Also let’s face it we haven’t even mentioned the USA and Canada who failed to qualify for this year’s tournament and remain in the wilderness of International Test Rugby, with the Americans set to host the tournament in 2031. We hope the SOS call will be heard, but given the actions so far of World Rugby we are feeling slightly less than optimistic as a golden opportunity to grow the game globally looks set to go missing once more.
Pool A remains the school of hard knocks and remarkable comebacks
We’ve learned three things from Pool A’s encounters. Firstly France clearly have some rather extraordinary medical facilities at their disposal, as Antoine Dupont has made a remarkable recovery from his injury against Namibia to the point where it now looks certain that he will participate in France’s campaign in the knockout stages. Secondly, after their thrashing at the hands of the All Blacks, Italy’s much vaunted improvement during this World Cup cycle looks in danger of being nothing more than a smoke and mirrors exercise. Lastly, everyone is only just starting to wake up to the increasing threat that New Zealand pose in this tournament, despite everyone essentially writing them off at the start of the tournament.
For France, all the talk of the last two weeks has been the bedside blow by blow account of Captain and scrum half Antoine Dupont’s recovery from a broken jaw picked up in the game against Namibia Such is the apparent level of skill in the French medical profession that “le petit general” looks set to return to steering his country through the knockout stages. While we and the rest of the world are delighted at the thought of seeing one of the world’s best players back in action, there are two questions that nag us.
Firstly, isn’t this all a bit rushed, especially as his first game is likely to see him have to face up to the bruising physicality that South Africa brings? How confident does he feel in himself and his body’s ability to withstand the pain and punishment of such an encounter? Is it even fair, especially given the growing emphasis on player welfare, to expect him to do so – regardless of how much he may want to? Secondly, has all the emphasis put on rushing Dupont back into service come at the expense of the team’s confidence as a whole? Sure, he’s an important player, but so important that a very talented French team with considerable depth can’t cope and progress further into the tournament without him after the Pool stages? There’s a danger, in our view, that all this hype and focus on Dupont may have been a negative and confidence sapping sideshow for the rest of the team. The first indication of that will be what kind of performance they put in against Italy on Friday night.
As for Italy, it’s really hard to judge where they’re at mentally after that complete and utter capitulation to the All Blacks last weekend. This is a good Italian team in our view, who somehow went completely and utterly AWOL for 70 minutes last weekend in Lyon. We were more than a little shocked at how dramatically Italy imploded psychologically in that match. Their body language oozed a sense of hopelessness and defeat. They managed to find a spark of their old selves on the 47th minute, but once the All Black try machine kicked back into gear three minutes later, the heads and shoulders drooped once more and Italy only seemed to snap out of it again in the final five minutes. Although they did start to look like the espresso had finally kicked in in that final five minutes, in reality, they only played 10 minutes of rugby in an eighty minute match. In short, to say Italy were awful is putting it mildly, and as their Coach Kieran Crowley said after the match there was nothing to do with that game than simply toss it in the bin when it comes to analysis.
Can they bounce back to the point where on Friday night they once more make France feel distinctly uncomfortable, as they have at times in Six Nations gone by? It’s a hard ask, and their demeanor after that All Blacks game was so abject that it would seem they now have a mountain to climb. However, we’d argue that once they’ve picked themselves up off the floor, pride against a foe they are considerably more familiar with than New Zealand will kick in. Furthermore, they will be painfully aware that back to back thrashings will once again raise the debate about their legitimacy in tournaments like the Six Nations, and this should be enough to spur them into showing us more of the kind of Italy we’ve come to expect in this World Cup cycle. They surely can’t be any worse than what we saw last weekend – can they?
New Zealand, however, will roll into their final Pool game against Uruguay this afternoon, confident that their quarter-final birth is secure, barring Italy pulling off the upset of the tournament. Furthermore, they’ll be rather comfortable that they have managed to stay on the fringes of the World Cup hype train, and it’s only now that people are suddenly talking about the genuine threat they pose. Well, not everybody. Despite the Twickenham horror show back in August and their opening loss to France, we haven’t for a second written off New Zealand. They may not be quite the vintage they were from 2011-2019, but this is a very dangerous team that, on their day, can still blow anybody off a rugby pitch with ease. Consistency may still dog them, and some questions about their defense and comfort in prolonged physical exchanges remain, but give this team room to play and allow them to take charge early on and all of sudden their opponents are having to play a significant amount of catch up rugby, putting all the pressure and risk of errors on the opposition.
Pool B as the Pool of Death remains just that!!!
As the French love to say, “en principe” Ireland and South Africa are through to the quarter finals, and Scotland sadly are on the way out. However, despite one needing a spreadsheet and a fully charged calculator to work out all the mathematical possibilities that could determine how this Pool plays out, Scotland are still very much in this to the point where a win for them on Saturday night in Paris could send either Ireland or South Africa packing. It would have to be a 21 clear points haul for them over Ireland while at the same time denying the Men in Green a bonus point, but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
Scotland remain the Fiji of the Northern Hemisphere, and if they and the truly remarkable Finn Russell fire, then who knows? Our problem lies in the fact that their ability to outmuscle Ireland in the set piece battles is questionable, putting even more pressure on Russell to create magic, which can cause him to appear almost reckless at times. Scotland are capable of some remarkable performances, and we have a hunch that this will be one of them. However, probably not remarkable enough for them to rewrite Pool B’s form book. Either way, there is no denying that this is one of the most eagerly anticipated and potentially nailbiting encounters of the entire Pool stages.
Ireland, rested after their physically sapping encounter against South Africa, will want to continue their remarkable winning streak of 16 games. We, like most supporters of both sides, have found the ideas being put forward that both teams may manufacture a result to see South Africa make an early exit preposterous and a tad offensive. These are two sides with a proud rivalry, who will both want to make a statement on Saturday night in Paris. No quarter will be given, and if Scotland do end up exiting the tournament they will want to do so in a manner that leaves few people in doubt about the lopsided nature of the draw that sees the first, third and fifth sides lumped together in one Pool. Form and favor appear to tip their hat towards Ireland in this one, but it should still end up being one of the most enthralling contests of the Pool stages. The only negative caveat to this looming spectacle is that the likelihood of us not being able to watch one of the tournament’s best sides Scotland after the Pool stages looks set to be depressingly high.
As for South Africa, they will no doubt all be watching this one with a stiff drink in their hands to calm the nerves. They will take comfort in the fact that they dispatched Scotland with relative ease at the start of the tournament, and it’s hard to really judge the Scots against the likes of Tonga and Romania despite the impressive scorelines. They will know that there are no givens in this one, but that form and fate favors them to be the ones accompanying Ireland to the Quarter Finals in Paris next weekend.
Is there still a sliver of hope for Australia in Pool C?
To be honest, no. We appreciate that’s a rather harsh and brutal statement from us, especially as we are given to excessive bouts of optimism when we look at the possible outcomes of games. We would love nothing better than for our underdog favourites of this tournament, Portugal to chuck the World Rugby form book out the window and pull one over on Fiji by more than eight points while at the same time denying the Islanders any bonus points. This would secure Australia, against all the odds, a place in the quarter finals. However, reality dictates that this is the kind of fantasy stuff that Eddie Jones dreams up in his selection decisions. Australia have only themselves to blame for their early exit, and while much of it can probably be pinned on the shoulders of Eddie Jones, the players will also know that sadly they just haven’t been good enough at this World Cup. There is talent aplenty there to work with for the future, but it was all too much too soon.
The other problem we have with the above wild card scenario, which would see Australia cheating death, is that we just aren’t ready to see Fiji go home yet. We’re firmly seated and strapped in on Fiji’s roller coaster ride to the knockouts, and we definitely don’t want it to end just yet. The thought of a Fiji and England rematch in Marseille next weekend after the Twickenham slip up in August is truly mouthwatering and with it the possibility of Fiji going as far as the Semi-Finals. Fiji were clearly rattled by Georgia at times last weekend and looked as if all the hype surrounding them had gone to their heads. A revved up Portuguese side will bring all the threats Georgia posed, and their backs will expose many of the defensive frailties which saw Fiji miss 28 tackles and emerge with only a 74% tackle success rate in that match. Shades of the Uruguayan banana skin, which cost Fiji at the last World Cup, could come back to haunt them. Georgia was a very useful wake up call and we doubt that Fiji will make many of the same mistakes again, but this still should be a fascinating and at times nail-biting encounter, especially if you’re a Wallaby supporter.
Argentina struggle to come to terms with how their fate lies in the balance of their final Pool D game, while Japan look like they remember what the Brighton miracle was all about 8 years ago.
While Argentina’s thumping of their South American counterparts Chile looked very impressive last weekend, their tournament to date has looked anything but. We were certain that they were destined to waltz through Pool D, but so far, they have done anything but. They failed to show up against England, and their win over Samoa looked distinctly labored. Furthermore, with all due respect to Chile, given Argentina’s rather lackluster performances so far, how easy is it to judge them in victory against a team experiencing their first ever World Cup. Have they really fixed all the issues that cost them against England, and which made living with Samoa distinctly uncomfortable at times?
Argentina need one big performance against a quality side to spark them into life and allow them to show the form that they have graced World Cups with since 2007. Unfortunately, they’ve left it a little bit late this time around, and Japan will surely be feeling more than a little optimistic. We have a hunch they’ll turn a corner this Sunday in Nantes, but there is also the distinct possibility they could exit this tournament with a whimper.
As for Japan, opportunity knocks in Nantes on Sunday. However, much like Argentina, they have really failed to fire this tournament. As a result, one could argue that of all the contests this weekend, this one is the most evenly balanced. Both sides know that if they do get through to the knockout stages they will have to ramp up their game by at least 50% from what they’ve put on display so far, as they will have to face a Welsh unit that is brimming with confidence. There have been glimmers of the kind of brilliance we saw from Japan at the last World Cup, but it’s been fleeting and without any degree of consistency or genuine sense of cohesion within the team.
However, in their celebrations after a hard fought and at times scrappy win over Samoa last weekend, the belief that served them so well at the last global showdown seemed to emerge once more. We think that ultimately Argentina’s powerhouse brand of rugby, particularly if it clicks, will be too much for this slightly out of sorts Japanese side, but write them off at your peril. Just like the Pumas, there is one big performance somewhere out there. We just wonder if it may not come too late.
Well, that’s it for the Pool Stages folks as we get ready to get down to the business end of the tournament. We’ll try and get something out next week ahead of the Quarters, but I and the family are off to France for two weeks for the Quarter Finals, so I can’t promise anything. Will definitely try and keep up the Podcast on the road, but the written word may have to wait until we get back.
In the meantime enjoy what should be a thrilling final weekend of the Pool stages and then on to the serious business of the World Cup!!!!!
The Lineout 