The last weekend of European Champions Cup playoffs is the perfect appetizer for the Six Nations in just over two weeks’ time. While a few of the teams have already qualified for the knockout stages, for the majority of teams, places and pecking orders are still up for grabs. Even for those lucky few who have qualified, there’s the small matter of a strong finish to ensure that they get a home game in the Round of 16. In short, there is EVERYTHING to play for this weekend. The rugby up to now despite the rather clunky format of the Pool stages has been spectacular, and if any of the skills on display make it into the forthcoming Six Nations are we ever in for a treat!
On that note, with the start of the Six Nations only two weeks away, the Coaches have named their squads, and we delve into who looks the business and who looks set to upset the apple carts. As everyone else seems to be talking about it we offer our take on Welsh superstar Louis Rees-Zammit’s shock move to the NFL, and last but definitely not least we raise a toast to the exciting announcement of the first ever British and Irish Lions Women’s tour to New Zealand, as yet another affirmation of the rapid upwards trajectory of the Women’s game.
In short, there was plenty to keep our pints frothy this week, so let’s dive into it!
Champions Cup Knockout Race – it doesn’t get much more nerve-racking than this!
First of all, if you’re like us, you will have been amazed at some of the rugby that has been played out over the first three rounds of the Pool stages in the Champions Cup. In short, it’s been high octane extraordinary entertainment. While a few teams head into this weekend knowing they have secured a berth already in the knockout round of sixteen, there is still plenty to play for across the board, especially to determine who gets home fixtures in the Knockout stages. There is only one team so far that is completely out of the running and that is Stade Francais (surprising given their form in the TOP14) but for a host of other teams there is everything to play for this weekend.
In Pool 1, Bordeaux and Lyon have already qualified, but Bordeaux will want a strong finish on the road to guarantee them a home game in the first of the knockout stages. No easy task when you consider they have to make the long trek to the cauldron of Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria and the added challenge of playing at altitude after the long journey. The Bulls look the best placed team out of Pool 1 to take one of the remaining knockout spots still up for grabs, especially given the fact they are likely to field a full strength side on their hallowed home ground backed by their fanatical supporters. For Lyon, it’s a trip to Saracens, but the English outfit will be rattled after the schooling they received at the hands of Bordeaux last weekend. Meanwhile, Bristol Bears will fancy their chances despite the trip to Galway to take on Connacht. Unlike Saracens and Bristol, Connacht’s chances of making it to the knockouts have become slim at best and require both Bristol and Saracens to slip up massively this weekend.
Pool 2 has been dominated by Bath and Toulouse, who are both through to the knockouts, making this weekend’s fixture between the two a genuine treat. Despite the genius of Bath and Scottish maestro Finn Russell you’d have to put your money on the Frenchmen who are keen to put a record sixth European star on their jersey, especially given the fact that it’s being played in front of the Toulouse faithful at home. However, English outfit Harlequins look the best placed out of the Pool to claim one of the last spots up for grabs as they host a promising Ulster side who have just fallen short of the mark this year. Racing 92 and Cardiff may have something to say about that, but sadly, especially for the Welshmen, it would look increasingly unlikely.
Pool 3 has seen Northampton back to their very best. Northampton have been a traditionally strong force in both the English Premiership and Europe. However, this year, they have been sensational. Qualifying already with seeming ease, all that remains is a tough trip to Munster, where despite a slow start, all the lights seem to have come on just when they are needed most for the Irishmen. However, if Northampton can bring their phenomenal form with them on the road, a home fixture in the Round of 16 is guaranteed. Pool 3 has been dominated so far by English teams with Exeter also showing some of the pedigree that won them the title in 2020. Exeter, despite a road trip this weekend, will be feeling more than a little optimistic about a strong finish to their Pool campaign. They face a Bayonne side for whom Europe has clearly been a bridge too far this season after their promotion to France’s TOP 14. Munster, however, may well have something to say in regards to how the knockout rounds will look, as they have looked particularly strong and midway through both their URC and European seasons have suddenly come alive. Northampton will be a hard side to knock over this weekend, but if anyone can do it, especially on the almost holy ground of Thomond Park, then it’s Munster. Glasgow and Toulon are for all intents and purposes out of the mix though the Scotsmen must surely feel a tad unlucky but there is a chance they could make it as they have had a strong campaign for the most part.
Pool 4 remains relatively wide open, with only Leinster having already secured a spot in the knockout stages. They face a challenging trip to knockout hopefuls Leicester, but a home Round of 16 fixture would appear to be nothing more than a formality for the Irish juggernaut. However, for everyone else, it’s open season. The Stormers have been playing some extraordinary rugby this season and will definitely fancy their chances on the long road trip from Cape Town to Paris to face a Stade Francais side playing for nothing more than pride. However, Leicester Tigers and Sale Sharks are still VERY much in the mix for a strong finish. Leicester’s date with Leinster is a potentially serious fly in the ointment for the English outfit, even if it is a home game at Welford Road. Meanwhile, Sale have the unenviable task of hosting a La Rochelle side that may be coming to the party slightly late but who now look in genuinely ominous form. If we were to place our bets on how the Pool will finish we’d argue La Rochelle second, Leicester 3rd and Sale 4th, however we’re definitely holding onto the receipt for our crystal ball fearing it could end up being a tad defective.
Either way, we’re all in for a genuine festival of high octane rugby this weekend, and you won’t want to miss a second of it!
Six Nations Squads – on paper, these are the three to beat!
Like we said last week, we are really looking forward to the start of this year’s tournament, unlike in past tournaments that have come straight off the back of a World Cup. There are a lot of new faces in the squads, coaching shuffles, and if form in the Champions Cup is anything to go by, we are in for a treat. We hold that France, Ireland, and England are the three taking the first three spots on the grid, but as always, we’ve had massive difficulty placing Scotland in terms of their chances. However, for the purposes of this piece, we’ll go with our gut and stick to the order we’ve settled on after much debate as to who the three front runners may end up being.
France must surely be the side looking most likely to win it. Sure there won’t be Antoine Dupont in the mix or Romain Ntamack, but then just watch a highlights reel of some of the French teams in Europe and all of a sudden that point seems null and void. Perhaps our only concern would be in the prop department, but at Hooker France is stacked with Peato Mauvaka and Julien Marchand set to make life a misery for the other teams. Meanwhile, they have depth in their second and back rows that most Coaches can only dream about. No Antoine Dupont, we hear you say well what about Maxime Lucu and Nolann le Garrec, and it almost seems like a bit of a moot point. The same can be said about the absence of Romain Ntamack with Matthieu Jalibert showing some career defining form at the moment. Their backs set a blistering pace, and the center channels are both sound defensively and lethal in attack. In short, we are struggling to find any deficiencies in this French squad. However, that’s what we said about France’s World Cup ambitions, and look how that turned out.
France this year will be without their traditional home of Stade de France as the venue is off limits due to preparations for Paris hosting the Olympic Games this summer. With both of their games against the other two title contenders, England and Ireland, being at home, the draw has certainly favored France this year. The only potential flies in the ointment are a very difficult trip to Scotland and the visit from Italy which for some reason often tends to catch France napping, though usually only at the start of the competition and this year’s fixture against the Azzurri is mid tournament. Wales should be nothing more than a formality even in the Principality Stadium, leaving le Crunch against England and a possible Grand Slam in the mix in Lyon on the final weekend of the tournament.
Ireland, though, may well have a great deal to say about France’s title ambitions, and the opening game of the tournament between the two may well set the tone for the entire Championship. The big question for Ireland will be what does life without Johnny Sexton look like. It’s going to be a three way race for who gets to wear the ten jersey going forward between Munster’s Jack Crawley and the two Leinster representatives of Ciaran Frawley and Harry Byrne, with the Munsterman clearly taking pole position. There’s a new Captain in the shape of 34 year old Shamrock warrior Peter O’Mahony, and we’re expecting second rower Joe McCarthy to cement his place in Ireland’s future over the coming weeks. In the meantime, expect to see two Ulstermen also make a name for themselves going forward, Number 8 Nick Timoney and Hooker Tom Stewart. There are all the usual suspects in the backs but a player we are really excited to see is Munster winger Calvin Nash, and can Ulster’s Jacob Stockdale return to the form that took the world by storm a few years ago?
Ireland face a challenging schedule, however, and it remains to be seen how this newer looking Ireland fare with the majority of their fixtures being on the road. They start off with a daunting trip to Marseille against France, and their only home fixtures are against the two weakest teams in the competition Italy and Wales. They also have the unenviable task of ending their campaign with two exceptionally tough road trips to Twickenham to face England and then end their tournament at Murrayfield against a Scotland side that will either be the revelation of the Championship at that stage or ending on their traditional damp fizzle. As good as Ireland are, given their schedule, we can’t help feeling that they’ll end up finishing a strong second with a Triple Crown in the bag.
If England’s surprising run through the World Cup finishing as bronze medallists is anything to go by, then they could be the side that everyone writes off at their peril. Furthermore, add into the equation the stunning form of sides like Northampton in the European Champions Cup, and all of a sudden, England look like they pose a genuine threat this year. Coach Steve Borthwick has settled into his role and seems to have the buy-in of his players. In short, this could be a genuinely fun year to be an English supporter after the misery of the last few. If England’s forward pack can gel and keep its discipline then there is the nucleus of a very potent unit there, especially with Borthwick cleaning out his cupboard of players that can no longer make the cut giving room for a younger generation to shine. The same can be said of the backs, and with no Owen Farrell in the mix, is this the year for Marcus Smith to really make the 10 jersey his own?
England start their campaign with a potential banana skin before they have had time to gel, by heading off to face a new look, Italy, under new management in the shape of Gonzalo Quesada. The visit from Wales to Twickenham should consolidate whatever good work gets done in Italy, preparing them for one of their most difficult assignments of recent years, a daunting trip to Murrayfield and their nemesis Scotland. If they emerge smiling from that encounter, then they will fancy their chances against a Johnny Sextonless Ireland at Twickenham before heading off to end their campaign against France in Lyon. Le Crunch match may not be being played at the Stade de France, but the noise generated by the 60,000 crammed into the Stade OL will be intimidating to say the least on the final game of the Championship especially if France are chasing the Grand Slam at that point.
Six Nations Squads looking to ruffle some feathers at the top
The trio of Scotland, Wales, and Italy may not be silverware contenders this year, but their potential to derail the best laid plans of the other three is a genuine possibility. Having said that, though, we genuinely feel that Scotland could well end up surprising us all and end up being in with a shot at the title this year. That may sound like a broken record, but bear in mind that the Scots made an early exit from the World Cup, and their seasoned veterans may well be the freshest of the top flight stars heading into the tournament.
We had a genuine tussle over where to put Scotland in terms of their chances heading into this Six Nations. Some could say they are definitely in it to win it. However, the issue of a lack of tournament consistency and staying power remains for us Scotland’s genuine Achilles Heel despite some of its seriously world class talent. In short, will this year be any different? Make no mistake, Scotland head into this tournament with some genuine depth across all positions and, for once, are not nursing a casualty list from hell. The talent, skill, and genuine grunt where it is needed is all there this year in Coach Gregor Townsend’s selections. The question simply remains as to whether or not they can go the distance for five rounds. We would like to say that this is the year, but sadly, history has proven us wrong every time. In the interim, however, we can guarantee that Scotland will provide us some of the most memorable games of the tournament as well as throwing the form book out the window. In short, be prepared to be entertained by the Men in Blue.
The tone for how Scotland will do will be set by that trip to Wales on the opening weekend. Put Wales to the sword and follow it up with throwing France off their game at Murrayfield a week later and all of a sudden Scotland could be in it to win it, especially if they manage their now customary win over England in Round 3 also to be held at Murrayfield. It then becomes that classic question of whether or not Scotland can find the formula to finally go the distance for a change. Traditionally, they run out of gas in the final rounds of the Championship, and this year will also not be kind to them in that regard. There is the awkward matter of a trip to Rome, which has often caused them to blow a tire in the past followed up by a final game against Ireland at the Aviva who by that stage could be chasing a Grand Slam in front of a delirious Dublin crowd. We’ll learn a lot about Scotland this Six Nations and what it means for the future and this next World Cup cycle.
Wales may surprise us all, and despite the ongoing crisis of confidence going on in the game at a domestic level, Coach Warren Gatland’s ability to turn the Men in Red into a formidable force that defies domestic form is legendary. He’s gone for one of the youngest squads ever seen in a Welsh Six Nations tournament, and there is no doubt about where his priorities lie – you guessed it Australia and the World Cup in 2027. While he will want to see his side competitive, his and perhaps even many Welsh supporters’ expectations of this tournament will be all about performance and building for the future rather than results. It’s a genuinely exciting Welsh squad that, while it may lack experience, is not short on talent, and the building blocks for the future are there for all to see. If this crop of Welsh youth thrives at Test level, then by the time the 2026 edition of the Six Nations rolls around expect Wales to be very much in the hunt for the silverware regardless of the woes of the domestic game.
The Welsh fixture list is not overly kind to the Men in Red this year, although they do have the advantage of getting their campaign underway at home to a Scottish side that is already causing a stir. However, if their opener doesn’t go well, then a confidence of crisis could set in for Gatland and his young charges as they spend the next two rounds on the road against Ireland and England. They end their campaign in the noisy yet comforting cauldron of the Principality Stadium against France and finish against Italy. However, this final fixture against the Azurri even in Cardiff has often proved to be a giant banana skin for them in recent years and it will be fascinating to see how well this young squad has coped with the pressure by this point.
Last but not least, traditional Wooden Spoon holders Italy look to show that the progress made under former Coach Kieran Crowley in the last two years was no flash in the pan. Under the new management of Argentinian Gonzalo Quesada, Italy look to hopefully turn a corner at long last. We admit that we like everyone else sound like a broken record when it comes to describing Italy at the start of every Six Nations, in our hopes that this year is the year that Italy finally silence their critics. Will Italy finally transition from feisty competitors who still manage to clutch the Wooden Spoon after yet another seemingly false dawn into a side that can genuinely compete for a spot in the top three finishers? It’s still a relatively young side, but boasting enough experience to make life difficult for some of the bigger teams. Add into the mix Benetton’s stellar form in the URC where they currently sit second as well as being serious contenders for Challenge Cup silverware this year in Europe, and there is room for cautious optimism if you’ll be sporting an Italian jersey over the coming months.
Nevertheless, they only have two home games this Six Nations, albeit their opener is against England in the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. Catch England napping, and all of a sudden, Italy could build some momentum for an almost impossible trip to Ireland a week later. However, there’s that two week lull in between before a trip to Lille, a venue which may suit Italy against France as the north of the country is not a traditional rugby heartland for Les Bleus – not exactly a neutral venue but also not the deafening cauldron of the Stade de France. They then return home to face a Scottish side who at that stage will either be a) waiting to unravel in the most spectacular yet depressingly familiar Scottish fashion or b) dismantling everyone who had the cheek to cast doubt on their Six Nations aspirations. Finally it’s off to Cardiff for a fixture that Italy often seem to relish at the end of the Six Nations – a surprise attack on Wales to salvage their campaign, especially as both these sides could at that stage be debating who will end up clutching this year’s Wooden Spoon.
Louis Rees Zammit – the Welsh speedster aims to seek his fame and fortune across the Pond
To quote Monty Python – “nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition”, and to be honest that rather sums up our initial reaction to the announcement that all star Welsh winger Louis Ress-Zammit was to turn his back on a stellar International Rugby career and seek his fame and fortune in American Football in the NFL. Put aside our own distaste for the American version of playing with an oval ball – a game that despite its lavish budget (more likely because of it) is interrupted constantly by ad breaks and has about as much momentum as us doing our annual tax returns. Sure we appreciate there are complexities to it, not that we’ve invested the time or energy to try and understand them and that for millions of fans it’s a passion bordering on religion just as rugby is to us. Nevertheless it’s just not our cup of tea or pint of ale as we prefer our sporting pursuits served up in 80 minute bursts of frenetic action as opposed to 3+ hour marathons where the the ball can often only be in play for a mere 11 minutes.
However, clearly, for the young Louis Rees-Zammit and especially his father, the American game has been a fascination since childhood. His father, against all the odds, played the game in the UK, where it must have been a minority sport akin to playing ice hockey in the Maldives. His father was passionate about the game and instilled such passions in his son, who clearly has hankered a dream to give it a go. In that regard, you have to respect Rees-Zammit. The dreams that shape our childhood should as much as possible never be compromised. The Welsh winger also harbored a dream to don the red of his native Wales and also that of the British and Irish Lions. To his credit and through sheer determination and hard work, he has managed to do both and excelled in the process, and been a credit to both jerseys, all by the tender age of 22.
This next adventure of his should be celebrated as an example of someone living out their hopes and dreams. Admittedly, there have been very few successful transitions from rugby to American football, and despite his extraordinary talents, there are absolutely no guarantees that Rees-Zammit will break that mold. He will certainly give it his best shot despite the odds seeming to be against him. Some have said that it’s the lure of money that is driving his ambition, but we find that hard to believe. He was already on the radar for extremely lucrative contracts with several French TOP 14 clubs who would have paid him considerably more than the wages he’ll earn for at least the next two years as part of an NFL team’s practice squad. The vast majority of rugby players who have gone to the NFL have sadly not made it beyond the practice squads and ultimately returned to rugby.
While it may be a huge loss to Welsh rugby in the short term, there is a very strong chance that given the fact that Rees-Zammit is only 22, he’ll be back by the age of 25 if his NFL adventure does not live up to his expectations as it hasn’t for so many who have gone before him. All we say is give the lad a chance to try something he has always wanted to do, and if it doesn’t work out then he knows he still has a home in rugby for at least another five years when he will be at the height of his considerable prowess. Variety is the spice of life, and while it may not be our preferred pathway, we should always salute someone following their dreams. In short best of luck to Louis and we hope that he can rest assured that if it doesn’t work for him, he’ll more than likely be welcomed back by all of us with open arms to the game that has put him on the international sporting radar in the first place.
British and Irish Lions – Women’s Team to make historic first ever tour to New Zealand
We can not begin to describe how excited we are about this. As anyone who has read this blog for a while now knows, Women’s Rugby here at the Lineout is a big deal, and we aim to shout its successes from the rooftops as much as we can. We have found the growth of the Women’s game the most exciting thing that has happened to our beloved game in the last 20 years, and perhaps more than anything is bringing it to a wider global audience. British and Irish Lions Tours have a special place in the pantheon of International Rugby, even though some people now argue that their relevance is an anachronism of the past. A bit like the Six Nations, they are just as much a celebration of the color, camaraderie, and spirit of our game all set against a background of an outstanding spectator and fan atmosphere. In short, they are special occasions for fans and players alike, and given the success of the Women’s game, it is only fair that they become part of the party as well.
The tour kicks off in September 2027 and will see the Lions play against New Zealand’s Black Ferns in three Test matches in addition to a series of warmup games against New Zealand club sides. Given that the next World Cup in England in 2025 is going to boost the popularity of the Women’s game even further, there should be a corresponding positive spin off for interest in the Women’s game in the Lions Home Countries and New Zealand. If the series is a success and the final Test ends up being a decider expect numbers in attendance at Auckland’s famous Eden Park to be akin to those seen at Twickenham for last year’s Six Nations match between France and England. All this means greater Television and viewing revenues and a bigger pot available to help continue growing the Women’s game. While Lions Tours traditionally involve little input from World Rugby, this initial tour may require some support from the sport’s governing body to help alleviate some of the costs that will need to be shouldered by New Zealand Rugby to make it happen and kickstart the process for the future.
While the mechanics of it all, including finance still need some finessing, at the end of the day this is a glorious opportunity not just for New Zealand and the four British Isles Women’s sides the Lions represent, but for World Rugby as a whole as our sport continues to become more inclusive and increases its appeal to ever larger audiences.
Well, that’s it for this week, folks. Here’s a clip of the upcoming Netflix documentary series on the Six Nations to whet our appetites before the tournament begins. It airs on January 26th in a similar vein to the “Drive to Survive” series that they do for Formula 1. Take care everyone and enjoy what should be a thriller of a weekend Champions Cup wise.
The Lineout 