As Super Saturday approaches and with it the final reckonings of this year’s Six Nations, we whip around a tournament that for all intents and purposes is now done and dusted after four rounds with just the formalities to sort out.
It’s highly unlikely that anyone is going to derail the French juggernaut on its way to clinching this year’s title, least of all the brave but wildly inconsistent Scots in Paris. England look to be humming along nicely now and seem to have found as much of what could possibly be described as a groove. Although a trip to face Wales at the Principality Stadium is never a prospect any side should treat with complacency, it’s unlikely that a Welsh side in the throes of transition are going to unseat England as the team with the best points spreadsheet after France. Ireland tipped to go for an unprecedented three back to back Championships need a miracle now to not only win the Championship, but to finish ahead of England in second, as they now have to contend themselves with simply sniffing runaway Championship favourites France’s exhaust fumes. For Ireland to win it or even finish second they need a massive points haul against Italy, and France to trip up in front of 80,000 of their faithful at the Stade de France and Wales to get one over the English in Cardiff. It’s wildly unlikely in the case of the former and a slim hope in the case of the latter.
As for the race to the bottom of the table, whatever happens in Paris as the final game, Scotland should feel relatively secure in fourth place without having to try too hard. If miracle of miracles they beat France and Ireland lose to Italy and they score a bucketload of points at the Stade they could put themselves in with the wildest outside chance of winning the whole thing . Inspirational but sadly unlikely stuff, as their points difference is unlikely to be enough to give them more than a best possible third place finish. Lastly, there’s that toss up for the Wooden Spoon between Italy and Wales. Both sides will be fired up for their final home games, but we just can’t see Ireland dropping the ball that much despite their increasingly waning form, and England losing to a pumped up Wales in front of their adoring fans with a point to prove. That means that Wales emerge winless and Italy with one win, and therefore, the dreaded culinary instrument stays with the Welsh for another year.
So here’s the Lineout’s look at this Six Nations ahead of Super Saturday, in terms of who we think is going to finish where – take from it what you will!
Twickenham was simply a blip on France’s way to lifting the trophy – say no more!
France have been incredible to watch this Six Nations, even in that error strewn display at Twickenham, which scuppered their plans for a seemingly inevitable Grand Slam. At Twickenham, they were breathtakingly ambitious, but the execution simply didn’t measure up in conditions for which such a bold game plan were simply inappropriate. They learnt their lessons quickly and put them into practice against an Irish side clearly in decline. Now all they face is a Scottish side who will be spirited make no mistake, but much like French sides of old, we are left wondering as to which Scotland side will turn up in Paris on Saturday evening.
France, are destined to become the rugby powerhouse they have been threatening to be since the last World Cup. They would appear to have bought lock, stock, and barrel into South Africa’s power game with a monstrous forward pack, allied to some of the silkiest and quickest backs in the modern game. As a result, the matchup between these two giants in November in Paris will be one of the year’s most eagerly awaited contests. Even France’s B side trip to New Zealand this summer for a three Test series should be causing the All Blacks Coach Scott Robertson some increasingly sleepless nights.
Although France have lost the services of their unique talisman and arguably the best rugby player on the planet, scrum half Antoine Dupont for probably the rest of the season, there is a silver lining in his unfortunate injury in Dublin last weekend. We are not for a moment suggesting that his injury was something to be desired, but what it did highlight is that France are still absolutely lethal even without him on the pitch. There is always a danger that when a team has someone like Dupont the Messi syndrome takes over, as in the case of Argentinian football, and a team’s is game is built around someone like Dupont creating the magic. The minute that linchpin is removed, the whole structure comes apart at the seams. What France demonstrated so clearly last weekend in Dublin is that removing Dupont made no impact whatsoever on their dismantling of what was at least on paper one of the standout teams of the tournament. France’s ability to play as a collective of brilliant rugby minds rather than talented players led by an exceptional conductor was there for all to see. The rest of the world has now been warned as we look towards Australia and 2027.
In short, we can’t see anyone now usurping France’s right to lift the trophy on Saturday evening in Paris, especially not a Scottish side that simply lacks the killer instinct needed for such big games, especially when there really isn’t much left to play for. It’s France’s tournament to lose now, and we just can’t see anyone who can come close to spoiling the party in St. Denis on Saturday night!
England will wish they had started better against an Irish side they could have beat had they started the tournament in the form they are ending it in!
Well, well, look who’s back! England very clearly mean business and by the time their Six Nations campaign draws to a close this Saturday in Cardiff, there is no doubt that they will be billed as the side that has shown the most improvement this tournament. They are still far from being the finished product and won’t be pleased that until their date with Italy, they were not exactly killing it on the pitch. Since coming unstuck against Ireland in Round 1, they continued to be the one point kings, the essential difference being though that unlike last year they were now on the right side of those one point margins, ie the winning side. Make no mistake, that’s a huge turnaround in a team’s performance. Winning doesn’t come easily at this level, but England are finally figuring out how to close out big games, even if until Italy they leave us with no fingernails left in the process.
The ability to hang on and clinch the win is a quality that served them well at the last World Cup. That allied to a killer instinct which they’ve always had but which lacked execution and the decision making needed at times, is starting to finally bring the results needed to make them a genuine contender for the two Six Nations leading up to the next World Cup and the actual global showdown itself.
The only real question left nagging at England is what do they do with a remarkable talent like Marcus Smith? It was easy to perhaps feel that they extraordinary man’s star was rapidly falling in England’s stock as Coach Steve Borthwick has clearly preferred his namesake from Northampton Finn in the number 10 jersey. As a result, Marcus has found himself either occupying the bench for spectacular cameos in the dying moments of games or, more commonly, wearing the number 15 jersey at fullback. He has clearly stated that he prefers to play at number 10, but it would appear that Finn Smith increasingly has first call on the 10 shirt and is a playmaker more in Steve Borthwick’s style.
What is clearly evident is that Borthwick realizes the value and skill set Marcus Smith brings but simply seems at a loss as to where best use them in England’s game plan. It would seem that if the Harlequins star can get his head around playing as England’s last line of defense and playmaker from deep, then his future is assured. It will require him to adapt his game, and it’s also plain to see that at times, that adaptation certainly at Test level is proving problematic. Furthermore, once Northamption fullback George Furbank returns from injury, will Marcus Smith then once again have to compete with his Northampton rival for time on the pitch in the 10 jersey? If England are serious about competing for top honors, then Marcus Smith will need time at fly half to cover for the number one seeded England driver Finn Smith. The real test in the coming months for Marcus Smith will be for him to develop his ability to slot seamlessly between the 10 and 15 jersey as per England’s requirements on the day. Master that and his future is secure.
As for England this Six Nations we have a feeling that a big points haul against Wales this Saturday will see them through to a strong second place finish and plenty to look forward to in terms of spots on Andy Farrell’s Lions Tour to Australia this summer and an exciting November Test schedule.
Ireland need to hit the RESET button after this Six Nations and hit it hard!
For Irish supporters now that the potential euphoria of an historic Six Nations three-peat is now not much more than a pipe dream, is there perhaps a sense of relief that dwelling on past glories can now be a thing of the past and the task of rebuilding the team from the ground up for the next World Cup can really begin in earnest? If you ask us, we think there’s a strong grain of truth in that assumption. If Ireland had swept all before them once more this Six Nations, we strongly believe it would have left the team with a false sense of security and an almost inevitable slide to yet another World Cup quarter final exit in Australia in two years time.
Ireland simply have not been that good in our and probably their own honest opinion in the last year. We can’t help feeling that ever since that loss to England in last year’s Six Nations, the shine has started to fade on Ireland’s chariot at a rate of knots. Much was made of getting one over the Springboks in South Africa in their two Test series last year, but we honestly believe, as we have a hunch they do, that had it been a three Test series Ireland would not have emerged the winners. In November, they looked decidedly unconvincing, and this Six Nations, they’ve looked good at times but ultimately not where they need to be.
There simply has not been nearly enough young blood coming through the ranks, leading one to the conclusion that ultimately Ireland’s long-term depth is superficial forcing them to rely on a group of players starting to contemplate the end of their careers, while in a few cases some players have had their inevitable retirement simply postponed. This is not to dismiss these players as irrelevant to Ireland’s cause, but Ireland know that the likes of Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, and Cian Healy will not be taking them to the next World Cup. Furthermore it’s debatable whether or not players like Tadgh Furlong, Tadgh Beirne, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe, Jamison Gibson-Park, Jack Conan, Bundee Aki and James Lowe will still all be at their prime come Australia in two and half years time. That’s half of Ireland’s squad with the other half still relatively unproven at Test level, and let’s not talk about injury cover.
In short, Ireland need to radically retool how they play the game and who they staff the changing rooms with in terms of personnel. Sadly we have a horrible feeling that they’ve left it too late and as a result Ireland could be in for a rough few years between now and the end of the next World Cup, let alone yet another World Cup Quarter-Final exit which may ultimately be too psychologically scarring for Irish rugby to recover from in the long-term.
Half the problem in our view still lies with the fact that selection draws too heavily from one provincial side, Leinster. Look at last weekend’s selection against France. Only 8 non Leinster players made the matchday 23, while against Italy this weekend, only 6 players don’t wear the Leinster blue at provincial level. While there is something to be said for having a player base that knows each other week in week out at club level, we fear it can also breed complacency. Furthermore, there seems to be an almost blind desperation to create Johnny Sexton 2.0, at the detriment of other players who have their own talents and can bring a different legacy to the Irish jersey. We’ve already pointed out, as in the case of France, how valuable it is for a team to be able to play without a genius such as Dupont on the pitch and still produce phenomenal performances.
Ireland sadly still remain in a post Sexton hangover too much of the time, and the desperation to recreate another in his mold has led to the obsession in promoting young Sam Prendergast beyond his current abilities. While all this is happening Ireland are guilty of ignoring the talents of a player like Munster’s Jack Crowley who was progressing very nicely indeed thank you very much even if he didn’t quite show the Gandalf like qualities that Prendergast has displayed at times. One thing Crowley has shown is a calm head under pressure and a defensive skill set that his rival simply can’t match at the moment. For fear of sounding like a broken record, any team that is genuinely serious about lifting the World Cup in two years’ time needs two world-class fly halves. Ireland have one who is almost there in the shape of Crowley, provided he doesn’t get sidelined with no time on the pitch over the next two years and another in the making in the shape of Prendergast. There is also the danger of pushing an up and coming player like Prendergast into the limelight too quickly and irreparably wrecking his confidence and thus his career before it’s even started. In short, the experiments have been made and now Ireland need to find the balance between the two players and how they use them going forward.
We dared to say in the podcast and at the beginning of this tournament that Ireland winning a third consecutive Six Nations would have done them a disservice and ultimately postponed the inevitable in terms of looking to the future instead of relying on past glories. Well, sadly, it’s come as a rude slap in the face to a team who are still formidable but creaking badly at the seams. Whether or not there is still enough time between now and the World Cup to right a listing ship remains to be seen, but we hold that Ireland have had the wake up call they were long overdue and there are still plenty of reasons to be cheerful when pulling on a green jersey provided the much needed lessons of this tournament are heeded.
Oh, Scotland – the side we all cherish but one which brings so much sadness come the end of every Six Nations about what could have been
There is not much really to say about Scotland other than once again as the tournament draws to a close we are left with that familiar sinking feeling as yet another Six Nations campaign fizzles out. Sure, there was the relief of putting a vastly improved Welsh side in their place at Murrayfield last weekend and lifting the Doddie Weir Cup, but even that looked in danger of going horribly sideways at one point. Fair enough, they only lost the Calcutta Cup at Twickenham to England by one point. They even made Ireland scramble at times. However, none of it has been overly convincing despite some stellar individual performances at times, but as a team Scotland are once more guilty of lacking the killer instinct to really go deep in this tournament, or in reality any tournament. As a result so much promise ultimately delivers very little for yet another year, and long suffering Scottish fans are left scratching their heads and staring into the suds of their empty pints to try and fathom what might have been and where it all went so horribly wrong.
We’d argue and will continue to do so, that there is enough flair and talent in this Scottish team to equal that of a side like France. The problem is there is neither the concentration span for the full eighty minutes nor the single-minded sense of common purpose and strength that makes a side like France so overpowering. Scotland’s set piece work is still erratic, especially at scrum time, and they rarely dominate the collisions and contact areas week in and week out. While their backs have demonstrated some truly God-given talent, none of it is consistent in its execution. Scotland invariably get three quarters of a game plan right but miss that final set of ingredients to blend it all together for the full eighty minutes, and if in the unlikely event they do, it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to repeat the process a week later.
After dominating Wales last week for the first hour, they simply decided to go to sleep in the final quarter and found themselves suddenly having to defend a rapidly diminishing lead. Such lapses of concentration or dedication to purpose are simply inexcusable at this level. Look at Glasgow in the Champions Cup and the URC there is focus and intensity by the bucket load which saw them travel to South Africa last year and clinch the URC title at one of the hardest grounds to play rugby, the sacred turf of the Bulls home ground of Loftus Verfeld. Scotland may not have the player depth of other nations but are not short on talent by any means and should be punching way above their weight as they often do on the International stage.
Nevertheless looking at the fate of Scotland’s U20s in this year’s junior Six Nations Championship, it would appear that they like Ireland are lacking the players coming through the ranks that will be needed to maintain their promise in the long run, although Ireland has fared much more positively in the World U20s in recent years.
In short, this is a great team on paper and at times on the pitch, but one whose future continues to remain blurry. If they can translate some of their club form into success on the International stage then surely Scotland can give their fans something to cheer about in the long term, but there are still no givens just yet and more question marks than answers.
Italy cut down to size once more, but the promise still beckons
We hear you saying but yes Italy always looks promising but never really deliver on it, and agreed it looks like once again the best they can hope for is a lowly fifth place and that’s only because Wales have once again been so poor. Still for another year running, it looks like they won’t be brandishing the Wooden Spoon, and the last two games aside against England and Ireland, they have played some very entertaining rugby. We’d even go so far as to say there is even the outside chance that brimming with passion and pride, they might even be able to pull one over against an increasingly misfiring Ireland this Saturday in Rome. However, that does appear to be a bit of a stretch of the imagination, even if it would be the shot in the arm that both sides desperately need at the moment.
We still argue that Italy have shown an improvement since last year. They have scored some exquisite tries, have shown patience in their execution and their discipline, which has traditionally been their Achilles Heel, has been dramatically improved this year. However, none of it adds up to Italy ultimately challenging the big boys as their set piece work still remains weak and defensively they remain a conundrum. They’ve made more tackles than any other team, but then they’ve had to as their tackles are tending not to stick as they’ve also missed more tackles than any other team.
Nevertheless, some of their attacking rugby has been outstanding, and in Tommaso Menoncello and Ignacio Brex, they have one of the best center pairings in not only the Six Nations but we’d argue Test Rugby as a whole. Whether he is played on the wing or at fullback, Ange Capuozzo is one of the best attacking players in the game and has some of the fastest thinking and most elusive feet in the sport. Their forward pack is respectable, and their halfback partnerships are convincing and at times innovative. Their final clash of the tournament against Ireland in Rome this Saturday should be heady stuff, despite the odds being against them on paper. However, it’s the Stadio Olimpico and provided they don’t let emotions get the better of them, the Azurri will be desperate to claim a big scalp this tournament in front of their delirious and adoring fans. Of the tournament’s big three, Ireland, given their recent troubles, are perhaps the biggest shot at an upset Italy have.
It’s unlikely that Italy will finish higher than fifth this year despite some accomplished rugby on display at times. Still, there is plenty to build on for this young squad ahead of a challenging trip to South Africa in the summer. In Quesada, they have an accomplished Coach who understands the complex mental and emotional dynamics of this team and is more than likely at some point going to turn it into a structure that produces results. In short, from Saturday onwards, no matter where Italy finish – watch this space!
Wales’ seemingly inevitable march towards their second consecutive Six Nations Wooden Spoon, belies the fact that there is the nucleus of a young team here that could restore the Red Jersey to its former greatness in years to come
We’ve really liked what we’ve seen in Coach Matt Sheratt’s new look Wales in Rounds 3 and 4. They rattled Ireland in no small measure and put Scotland under the pump in the final quarter at Murrayfield. In short there is a LOT now to like about Wales and much like Italy their fellow cohorts at the bottom of the Six Nations table, this is a very young squad with plenty of potential ahead of them. While the Wooden Spoon looks set to reside with them for another year, we can’t help feeling that in the process, they have turned a corner.
In Jac Morgan they have a Captain who will serve them well in Australia in 2027 and beyond, and who is more than likely destined for a trip to the Land Down Under as preparation with the Lions this summer, as the talismanic back rower makes the Duracell bunny look like an amateur, such is his stamina and seemingly tireless work rate for the full eighty minutes. Teddy Williams already looks to the manor born in the second row, while Ben Thomas seemed much happier in the center channels than he did making decisions at fly half. Blair Murray caused all kinds of havoc from deep against Scotland, and had he not jumped a tackle the result at Murrayfield would have been even closer, and Ellis Mee on the wing looks to be a prodigy in waiting.
This is a proud team who actually look like they’re enjoying playing rugby again in the fabled red shirt. It’s early days, but we feel they will do the faithful proud at the Principality this Saturday, even though England are likely to overpower them for much of the match. If they can just figure out who takes the reins from temporary Coach Matt Sherratt after Saturday’s final whistle, and his replacement can build on the promise shown in these final three rounds, Welsh fans should finally get a chance to start smiling once more and actually look forward to a challenging Autumn Nations campaign.
The Lineout’s final Six Nations Standings after Super Saturday
- France (no brainer really unless Scotland produce a miracle)
- England (have quickened their pace throughout the campaign to the point where they’re clearly ahead of Ireland in both cohesion and execution)
- Ireland (their season is fading fast, and despite a probable win over Italy, it won’t paper over the obvious shortcomings)
- Scotland (barring a miracle at the Stade de France, the stutter is likely to continue despite the talent)
- Italy (still hoping for the upset of the tournament at the Stadio Olimpico despite our loyalties to the Men in Green, as a dream come true for the hosts and a kick up the proverbial to get on with the rebuilding/restructuring that Ireland so desperately need)
- Wales (Is there one last twist in the tail left at the Principality as the game that matters most to the Welsh against England shows the promise of Wales next gen in the making in front of the Cymru faithful?)
The Lineout 