We have four very big games this weekend to look forward to. In Super Rugby, the Qualifying Round for the Semis takes place, and its importance in terms of Australian rugby can not be overemphasized. Were the two Australian sides, the Reds and the Brumbies, lose this weekend and not make the Semi-Finals, it would not paint a good picture as the Wallabies prepare for the arrival of the British and Irish Lions on their shores later this month.
Meanwhile, the URC is in Semi-Final mode, with a fascinating rematch of Leinster and Glasgow’s Champions Cup Quarter-Final contest, which saw the Irish outfit hammer their Scottish guests 52-0. We very much doubt that Saturday’s encounter will be so one-sided. Meanwhile in South Africa, a classic rivalry gets played out at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria as the Bulls and the Sharks slug it out to see which side will represent South African interests in the URC final next weekend.
So let’s have a look at what we might expect.
With all eyes increasingly looking towards the Lions Tour to Australia, the Reds performance in this week’s knockout clash with the Crusaders is a vital insight into the Wallabies’ prospects!
There is a certain sense of deja vu as we look ahead to this weekend’s Super Rugby qualifiers for the semis. The three games are the equivalent of quarter finals, but as they only feature six teams as opposed to the eight you normally have in a quarter-final round, we are referring to them as qualifying rounds. Last year, there were three Australian teams in the quarters, but only one progressed to the Semi-Finals, at which point their campaign ended. There is a definite pattern here. Firstly, only one Australian team has made it to the semis since the new look Super Rugby Pacific campaign came into being after COVID in 2022. It’s always the Brumbies, and they sadly peter out in the semis. So with a Lions Tour to Australia only weeks away, will recent history repeat itself once more, or will the Reds manage to defeat the most successful team in Super Rugby’s colorful 29 year history, New Zealand’s Crusaders?
Let’s face it it’s a pretty tall order made more difficult by the fact that the boys from Brisbane have to travel to the Crusaders home ground of Christchurch, one which has a similar aura to the All Blacks famous fortress of Eden Park in Auckland. When the Reds paid their New Zealand hosts a visit during the regular season this year, things didn’t exactly go well for them as they left with their tails between their legs and a 43-19 defeat. As the most successful side in Super Rugby history, the Crusaders know a lot about what it takes to be a Champion, and so they should considering they’ve hoisted the trophy 14 times in the Tournament’s 29 year history. Of those 14 trophy lifts, 7 seven of them were done in consecutive years. In short, when it comes to winning Championships, the Crusaders’ pedigree is rather special, to say the least.
The Reds on the other hand, have come close on several occassions but have only managed to get the job done once (we’re not counting their win in Super Rugby AU 2021 which was a strictly domestic affair due to COVID restrictions). However, the one time they did win it back in 2011, guess who they beat to lift the trophy? Their opponents they face this Friday the Crusaders. In short, there will be more than just a hint of self-belief for the Reds as they walk down the tunnel and out onto the pitch in Christchurch.
If you’re looking at the form books, it doesn’t quite tell the story that needs to be told. Yes, the Crusaders have won 11 of their games this season, but rarely have they annihilated their opponents, and their last two games have seen them eke out very narrow winning margins. Of their three losses, two of those were on their sacred home turf in Christchurch. If anything, you’d argue they have better form away from the expectations of their fans who demand the highest standards. As for the Reds, they have had a mixed season, with results good enough to get them to this stage, but question marks hover around how much is left in the tank for the knockout stages.
On paper, both teams are surprisingly evenly matched. Their set piece work is solid, and the Reds unlike in seasons past have looked much more robust defensively, a traditional weak link in Australian Super Rugby sides. However, the Reds’ main Achilles Heel has been their discipline, which has been the second worst in the Competition this year. The Crusaders will be keenly aware of this and are experts in getting inside their opponents’ heads and making them hot and bothered under the collar, especially in front of a very vocal home crowd.
If, however, the Reds can keep their cool, they have some genuine wrecking balls in their ranks. Openside flanker Fraser McReight, in our opinion, is one of the Southern Hemisphere’s most exciting loose forwards. When his back row partner Henry Wilson is having a good day at number eight this pair can cause absolute chaos at the breakdowns and in the loose, with McReight having a turn of pace for a forward that sometimes has to be seen to be believed.
Tom Lynagh, son of the Wallaby legend Michael, looks set to follow in the footsteps of his famous father in the fly half berth for Australia, especially given that he is the tournament’s second leading points scorer this season. For us, the player that has lit up many of the Reds performances this year is winger Lachie Anderson, and we have a hunch he’ll have a role to play for the Wallabies against the Lions. Watch any open space on the right side of the pitch and expect to see Anderson tearing it up.
For the Crusaders, there are a host of All Blacks in their ranks and most notably their fortunes for this match received a boost when outstanding fullback and try scoring machine Will Jordan was made available for this match after recovering from injury. Therein lies the problem however, in that this exceptional player has been plagued by injury niggles all year, and will he be able to go the distance in a match of this intensity. Alongside him in the backs is Sevu Reece who increasingly demonstrates that he is a jack of all trades, with the electric winger nailing a speculative drop goal last weekend to seal his side’s win over the Highlanders. This is an experienced team with a capable and punishing set of forwards and a superby mix of both Championship winning experience and youthful talent.
Ironically though look at the head to heads and the Reds actually come out on top, by the smallest of margins, and we’d argue that defensively the Australians look the slightly more adept side, something we rarely say about sides from the land down under. The Reds scrummaging has been better, and if the Men from Brisbane can eke out penalties from set piece infringements, then Lynagh’s boot will punish the Crusaders.
In short, it’s a tough one to call, but in Christchurch, it’s hard to see the Crusaders coming unstuck. Pressure is something both sides have battled with all season, but the Crusaders have been the more effective at blotting out the noise, rolling up their sleeves and getting the job done even if it hasn’t always been pretty or overly convincing at times. The Reds, though, will show up riding the wave of a much improved effort all round by Australian sides in the tournament this year. There is belief and ability aplenty, and if they can keep both their nerve and discipline, this match should be one well worth your time. Should the Reds pull off the unthinkable, the upcoming Lions Tour will get another shot in the arm, and Wallaby Coach Joe Schmidt will feel more than a little optimistic about the three Test series.
If you’re genuinely excited about the upcoming Lions series in Australia, then you won’t want to miss this as a precursor!
The Brumbies retain their reputation as Australia’s strongest Super Rugby finishers, but like the Reds can not afford to fade away at this stage if a positive Lions Tour is the ultimate objective!
The Brumbies are the one Australian side with a serious Super Rugby pedigree. They’ve won the thing twice and reached the Final six times. They also boast some of Australia’s most effective and dangerous Wallabies, and on home soil in Canberra, they have been difficult to beat this season. But beaten they have been at GIO stadium, and you guessed it one of the teams claiming that honor has been the Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes track record in Super Rugby is not quite as stellar as the Brumbies with only one title to their name, but this is a team that packs plenty of punch throughout the season and in reality should have more titles to their name than they do. They currently sit on an unbeaten streak of six games, and despite the road trip, they will be confident of getting the job done.
Both teams have finished the regular season strongly, unlike the Reds and Crusaders, who have stumbled at times as the run to the knockout stages gathered momentum. One area that will concern the Brumbies is their defensive skills, especially when the Hurricanes lead the competition in numbers of defenders beaten. The Brumbies tackle completion rate is the second lowest in the tournament, a statistic the Hurricanes will be keen to exploit as they have more offloads than any other team this season.
Where the Brumbies will feel comfortable, however, is in the physical battles. Their setpiece work has been exceptional this season, along with being devastatingly effective at ruck time and having the best lineout in the competition. If the Brumbies can keep the ball close and starve the Hurricanes of posession, they can release their three danger men in the backs, in the shape of fullback Tom Wright, centre magician Len Ikitau and winger Corey Toole.
For the Hurricanes, scrum half Cameron Roigard will want to hone his skills ahead of the All Blacks three Test series with France next month. Les Bleus arguably produce the best scrum halves on the planet, and Roigard knows he will have to be at his best to match them, and what better way than a winner takes all Super Rugby knockout game. Peter Umaga-Jensen the Hurricanes lethal battering ram in the centre channels will be keen to make his mark especially against the exceptional skills of his opposite number in the Brumbies Len Ikitau, while openside flanker Du’Plessis Kirifi is a complete handful in the loose.
Just like the clash in Christchurch, there is very little between two exciting sides who both love to run the ball. However, on home soil and given their pedigree it’s hard to see the Brumbies not advancing to a Semi-Final berth especially if they can shore up their defensive skills and use their physicality to force the Hurricanes into costly lapses of discipline.
The permutations of these knockouts, given they are not classic quarter finals, are slightly complex, to say the least. However, if the Brumbies win, they most likely will play the Crusaders. However, if the Reds beat the Crusaders then the Brumbies opponents would most likely be the Crusaders a week later in Canberra, while the Reds would have the unenviable task of travelling to New Zealand to take on the Tournament’s red hot favourites the Chiefs. In short, it’s complicated but two wins by Australian sides would be a massive morale booster ahead of what promises to be a highly demanding three Test series against the British and Irish Lions next month for the Wallabies. If their players can taste success at this level, then all of a sudden, we really do have a series on our hands!
Is Leinster’s star fading and have Glasgow regrouped after their Champions Cup debacle?
Sure, we hear you say, whatever Leinster’s current problems, the last time these two met at the Aviva in Dublin, Glasgow were nowhere to be seen in a humiliating 52-0 loss. However, it’s Leinster’s ability to trip over their own shoelaces come high stakes matches, even though everyone is labeling them as nailed on winners, which is starting to become the stuff of legends. It’s a malaise that is affecting Irish rugby in general all too often these days. Leinster’s performances of late since that Champions Cup Quarter Final have looked less than convincing, to say the least.
Glasgow, on the other hand have clearly picked themselves up off the floor after that humiliation in Dublin a month ago. They appear to be hitting all their straps at just the right time. Attempting to beat Leinster in their own backyard, especially given the all-star player roster of seasoned internationals that the Irish side is able to boast, is no easy feat. However, we’d argue that if anyone can do it, Glasgow have the best shot at it in the URC. Watching their Quarter-Final demolition of the Stormers last weekend highlighted a team that is exceptionally well organised and one where everyone knows each other’s respective roles.
Leinster, when they’re on song, look spectacular. The problem is it would appear to be a lottery as to whether or not they remember to bring their sheet music with them to any given game day. Their set piece work has been hit and miss to say the least, their execution when given space often leaves a lot to be desired and once their composure starts to crack they simply can’t seem to get it back. Don’t get us wrong, this is still a very good team with some exceptionally talented players, it’s just that the overriding impression is one of a team with many very clever moving parts that is just not in sync. Glasgow, by comparison seem to be very focused, even if, especially at scrum time, they struggle to dominate their opponents.
Former Springboks Coach Jacques Nienaber’s legendary defensive structures simply don’t appear to be working at Leinster, and it could be argued that the Irishmen would appear to have one of the most porous defenses in the competition, while Glasgow have the highest tackle success rate of any team in the Tournament, with the Scotsmen also leading the table in defenders beaten. All of this is no doubt causing Leinster Coach Leo Cullen and his team a lot of sleepless nights heading into this match.
Much has been made of Leinster fly half prodigy Sam Prendergast’s struggles to assert himself in the 10 jersey. Considered by many to be a defensive nightmare, the promising youngster has clearly struggled with the pressure of top flight rugby at times. Brilliant one minute and then a liability the next, we share the concern that the young man has been put in the spotlight too much and too quickly, which has dented his confidence. The problem remains, however, that despite all their talent, Leinster still lack a dead ringer for the 10 jersey. Prendergast will get there, especially if he can address his defensive frailities, but there is no denying that despite his genuine and often spectacular talents, he is still a long way off from being the finished product – something Glasgow will be keen to exploit.
Neither side boasts particularly effective set pieces, although Glasgow has a more reliable lineout, but Leinster by throwing some of their big men up in the lineout contests leads the competition in lineout steals, it’s just unfortunate they can’t seem to win their own. Scrum wise, Glasgow seems more comfortable, with Leinster tending to leak penalties at the setpiece get togethers.
Logic says that a team like Leinster who have dominated the standings in the URC for several years now, even if they are a bit thin on the penultimate silverware to back it up, should get the job done. However, the Aviva looked far from full last weekend, and you can’t help wondering if Leinster supporters are staying away in protest until their team can get their house in order. Glasgow as defending Champions look just like they did last year, more than happy to take their bag of tricks on the road, almost relieved at being out of the spotlight of their expectant fans. Their clinching of the title last year at altitude in the hostile cauldron of Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria showed some real character and grit. All qualities that seem to be starting to elude Leinster at just the wrong time, but which seem to be ramping up in intensity for Glasgow.
This is a fascinating contest of two teams who would appear to find themselves in very different head spaces at the moment – you won’t want to miss seeing who gets it right on the day!
High Octane/High Altitude – Who can master the mix as a classic South African rivarly provides the backdrop to the second URC Semi-Final?
Bulls vs. Sharks – a rivalry steeped in South African rugby history sets the tone for Saturday’s second URC Quarter Final. The Bulls have been consistent all round performers throughout the entire season and it’s very hard to find any chinks in their armor. The Sharks on the other hand are a bit like Leinster. They’ve got the wins to justify their 3rd place spot on the log, but none of it has looked overly convincing, and just like Leinster and their Ireland “A squad”, the Sharks raft of Springbok internationals haven’t really caught the eye nearly as much as they were expected to.
We head into this fixture with the Bulls coming off a strong showing against a determined Edinburgh side, whereas the Sharks had to huff and puff their way past a determined and gritty Munster outfit that simply refused to go away. In the end, the Sharks and Munster were drawn into a tournament first for the URC – a penalty kick shootout to settle their Quarter-Final, with the Sharks edging the fractious contest.
We won’t get dragged into the “kickgate” saga, other than saying although we didn’t like it, we feel what’s been made out of it is a storm in a teacup and time for all parties to move on. As for the respect aspect while we have genuine admiration for the silence afforded to kickers from both sides at matches in Ireland whenever we’ve attended matches in the Emerald Isle, sadly it’s something unique to the country and not replicated anywhere else to any great degree. Consequently, players simply have to get their heads around the fact that they will be taking pressure kicks in often loud and good-natured but ultimately hostile crowd enviroments. Occupational hasard, sadly, and as highly paid professional athletes, it’s their job to learn how to cope with and manage it, none of which was done particularly well by both sides last Saturday in Durban.
Anyway, to our point, all that’s ancient history now and two sides with a passionate sense of rivalry will once more engage in gladiatorial combat on the high ground of Loftus Versfeld’s fabled arena. The question on everybody’s lips is will the Sharks, with their boatload of Springbok superstars, finally produce the kind of performance that they had been billed to produce week in week out of the regular season but sadly somehow didn’t. Or is it going to be a case of the Bulls up and coming young guns blinding us all with the promise of the future, and cause Springbok Coach Rassie Erasmus to rub his hands with glee in the stands.
To be honest, we think it’s going to be the latter scenario. The Bulls have simply looked too clinical and focused all season long, something that can not be said of the Sharks. That Bulls forward pack is a sublime mix of youth and experience, and their big rangy number 8, Cameron Hanekom is clearly destined for great things in the fabled green and gold jersey this year and beyond towards the next World Cup.
The Bulls scrum has been the dominant set piece force this year in the URC allied to a lineout that is consistently reliable. They won’t be happy with some aspects of their defensive work, but overall, this is a dependable outfit that clicks overall as a unit. Willie Le Roux, in the twilight of his career, is clearly loving being back on the high veld and is playing some of the best rugby we’ve seen from him in years in the fullback jersey. Winger Canan Moodie continues to leave defenders snatching at his bootlaces whenever he’s in space, and Le Roux has an uncanny ability to put him there. In short, while they may not be as flash as their Sharks opponents, in terms of rolling up your sleeves and quietly and efficiently going to work, there are few teams that have been better this season.
When the Sharks turn on the razzle dazzle, they are fantastic to watch. The problem is they can’t seem to do it consistently, and some of their performances this season have been a comedy show of errors. The team sheet for that uncomfortable Quarter Final read like a who’s who of Springbok rugby, and yet they still struggled to take Munster out of contention for a full 100+ minutes, even though they had the lion’s share of territory and possession. But forget all the big names, one man has caught our attention all season long and is now surely firmly on Rassie Erasmus’ radar for Springbok selection. Winger Ethan Hooker has been a revelation this year. A big powerful unit that possesses an incredible burst of speed, yet nimble enough to sidestep and weave like a turbocharged gazelle, we have loved watching him wreak havoc on opposition defences this season. In short, this guy is only going to get better, and just like the Bulls’ Hanekom is likely to be one of the Springboks’ breakout stars this year.
There’s nothing per se in the Sharks’ statistics this season that has us running for the hills in alarm, they just have to turn up and play like they mean it for once. Do that and these are two very evenly matched sides, but we’d argue that the Bulls are a bit more efficient and can do more with less coupled to a sense of composure that is hard to rattle. It’s this quality and the fact that the Bulls are more used to the lack of oxygen on the high veld, which means that although there will be plenty of high octane action from both sides the Bulls are more likely to be able to manage their precious reserves of oxygen that much better.
Either way, you won’t want to miss what should be plenty of high-paced action that the fast hard track at Loftus is able to provide. Expect no prisoners taken on both sides as a sometimes antagonostic, but always good humored rivalry notches up a few gears on Saturday afternoon!
Take care everyone and enjoy what should be a very entertaining weekend of oval ball action, giving us a fascinating insight into the International season just around the corner!
The Lineout 