Anyone else enjoying these November Tests as much as we are, despite having to sandwich them in between a ridiculous work schedule? We did manage to catch three cracking games of rugby as Scotland came tantalisingly close once again to almost upsetting New Zealand’s apple cart in a genuine thriller. Then France and South Africa went at it hammer and tongs. Still, ultimately, the inability of literally any team right now to go the full eighty minutes with the Springbok juggernaut saw Les Bleus run out of both puff and ideas. Finally, on Sunday, Argentina produced an extraordinary display of attacking rugby against a brave but ultimately outclassed Welsh outfit, and not exactly the dawn of a new era that so many beleaguered Welsh fans were hoping for under recently appointed Head Coach Steve Tandy.
While much has been said in the press this week about the ramifications of these November Tests on the World Cup draw next month to decide the composition of the Pools in Australia, the top six who look set to occupy Band 1 and therefore a much easier route to the knockouts needn’t stress too much. South Africa really doesn’t need to worry at all, as their remaining opponents—Italy, Ireland, and Wales — are sadly unlikely to cause them too much grief, with only Ireland a potential banana skin. Nevertheless, we take a look at how it all may shape up come the final whistle in Cardiff on the 29th of November.
As always, we pick our three big games of the weekend as our focus, work permitting, will be firmly on the action set to unfold in Twickenham, Dublin, and Murrayfield. Can England lay down a genuine marker that they intend to lift the Webb Ellis Cup for only the second time on the same soil they did it the first time around in the 2003 World Cup in Australia? Can Ireland finally realize that some long-overdue personnel changes and a reworking of their toolbox must now be addressed with the utmost urgency, as they seek to sink another nail into Australia’s listing ship despite its promise at the start of the season? Finally, if you want thrills and spills, then look no further than Murrayfield on Sunday, as two glorious attacking and free-flowing sides have at it in the shape of Scotland and Argentina.
So, as we’ve had a bit of a breather this week work-wise, let’s look ahead to an important and potentially fascinating weekend.
Also, please share with us the sad news regarding Mark from Two Cents Rugby’s father as a postscript to this week’s missive, and offer him your support if you can. The legendary Gazza will be sorely missed.
While there is lots of talk around seedings permutations for the World Cup draw next month, the reality is that, for the most part there really aren’t any, as the top six, barring any surprises, look set to remain the top six
While much has been said about the permutations of these November Tests on the draw, which takes place next month for the Pools at the next World Cup in Australia, we’d argue that perhaps it’s a bit of a storm in a teacup, especially after the first of two rounds of the November Series. The fuss all seems to stem from the fact that at the end of the Autumn Test window, the top six teams in the World Rankings will occupy the fabled Band 1 of the draw. Essentially, that means at least in the Pool stages none of the top six teams will have to face each other, making what should be an easier route to the knockout stages. In theory, however, if you look at the state of things and those six teams who will occupy Band 2, there will still be some decidedly uncomfortable games in the Pool stages for the likes of France and Ireland. Even Argentina, who arguably are playing some of the best rugby we’ve ever seen them play, need to be concerned if they can’t fix their lack of consistency from one game to the next, despite a veritable conveyor belt of talent now coming out of this South American powerhouse. Australia, Fiji, Italy and Scotland could seriously jeopardise the hopes of the bottom three of Band 1 should they meet in the Pools.
Hang on, we hear you say, we thought you just said there was no jeopardy. In the sense of the current top six staying there, that’s not really a concern. It’s simply more to do with the order after November concludes as well as worrying trends in sliding form. Argentina perhaps looks the most vulnerable as thumping losses to both Scotland and England, and Australia pulling off resounding wins over Ireland and France could see them swap that sixth place with the Wallabies. However, even if Argentina loses to both Scotland and England, we can’t see the margins of defeat being all that severe. We fear slightly for Australia at the hands of a French side looking to make a point in a fortnight in Paris, as well as an uncomfortable trip to Dublin this weekend, even if Ireland are definitely not at their best at the moment.
South Africa and New Zealand should remain top of the pile in first and second as we simply can’t see South Africa losing to Italy, Ireland, or Wales in their current imperious form. Ireland remains the wild card if they pull off one of their performances for the ages when they meet the Springboks in a fortnight. As for that third place, we could see England getting some serious traction in the next few weeks. An Irish win over a wounded but competent Australian side this weekend, despite the Wallabies’ dip in form on tour, is by no means a certainty, while England getting one over an All Black side that seems unsure of itself is a distinct possibility. If England were to follow that up with a win over Argentina, while Ireland gets pummeled by South Africa, then there would definitely be a shift in that third-place ranking in England’s favor.
So yes, technically, there is little to no jeopardy in the next two weekends, but statements of intent will need to be made, particularly by Ireland, France, and Argentina. Australia and Scotland may be hoping that the tables turn in their favor, but for us, it’s all a bit too much in the realms of a fantasy league that simply doesn’t exist right now. New Zealand will want to survive Twickenham and then put the Welsh to the sword so they can return home and really start to develop a World Cup strategy based on all the lessons learnt in this turbulent transition period. South Africa will also want to reflect on lessons learnt, even if it’s unlikely anyone will knock them off their perch, and ensure that the body of new talent currently being fast-tracked is fully embedded into their World Cup plans. England will simply want to notch their already impressive World Cup preparation up a few gears. Jeopardy, no, but deadlines to meet over the coming weeks for all concerned, and a target to be hit? – Absolutely!
England must clearly fancy their chances this weekend as the All Blacks look far from their invincible selves of years gone by.
England are clearly looking forward to this weekend’s tussle with New Zealand at Twickenham. To be honest, so they should. We’d argue that based on current form, we’re tipping our hats in their direction as favourites. New Zealand are keen to complete their “Grand Slam” of the Home Nations this Autumn. In reality, it’s only England standing in the way of that ambition, as courageous as Wales are likely to be in New Zealand’s last game of 2025, it’s hard to get our heads around the idea of the Welsh pulling off what is essentially an unthinkable upset.
Of all the Six Nations countries, you could argue that England looks in the rudest health and at a perfect point in this halfway marker in their preparations for the next World Cup. There is established talent in the squad, all at the right age, and a raft of new talent that is now firmly embedded in England’s operational mentality, with an incredibly bright future ahead of them. There is enough depth to cover for injury in all the key playmaking positions. It’s simply a question of fine-tuning it.
One could argue that New Zealand has much the same in terms of depth, but the changing of the old guard and the bedding in of the new, all allied to a new Coaching philosophy, are not nearly as advanced as England’s developments in the same areas. Make no mistake, this is an excellent New Zealand side in the making. The Coaching box just needs to determine the kind of game it wants the All Blacks to play, then develop the right players accordingly. New Zealand’s biggest Achilles Heel at the moment would appear to be consistency in direction, not a lack of talent or ability. This very good side is just not the well-oiled machine that saw New Zealand win two back-to-back World Cups in 2011 and 2015—for now.
Saturday’s lineups are fascinating and should provide some riveting contests on the pitch. That English front row looks feisty and dangerous, even if in Heyes and Fin Baxter, it may be a tad inexperienced. However, Jamie George, despite his advancing years, still seems to manage to huff and puff his way through a good 60 minutes and ensure that England’s lineouts hit their mark. However, New Zealand has a unit that can more than match it, but the benches on both sides will need to make no apologies when they come on with England’s Ellis Genge bringing his usual edge. The enormous Dutchman, now bona fide New Zealander Fabian Holland, will give Maro Itoje some serious competition in the lineouts.
It’s the back-row battle royale between the two sides that is likely to be one of the most critical contests on Saturday. We said that after England’s summer Tour of Argentina, where their young guns not selected for Lions duty were so impressive, Bath’s Guy Pepper had to be seen as a starter. So far, he simply hasn’t disappointed and has been outstanding, but his duel with arguably one of the best back rowers of the modern game, New Zealand’s Ardie Savea, will be a genuine coming of age. England number eight Ben Earl is probably peaking at just the right time in readiness for the next World Cup, and New Zealand’s outstanding newcomer Peter Lakai will have to be at his best to keep the rampaging Englishman in check.
England seems comfortable with the playmaking axis of Alex Mitchell and George Ford at 9 and 10, and Ford’s always impressive tactical game has started to finally develop some real attacking nous. They’ll need to be good to negate the threat of Cameron Roigard, who is clearly New Zealand’s plan for the World Cup in the nine jersey, while Beauden Barrett provides the calm and spark that the All Blacks have relied on for so long now.
England, if they can’t maintain dominance through their forward pack, may feel less assured in the backs, though, as we think that England’s centre pairings are still a work in progress, as is their back three. Freddie Steward seems to be getting back to his best at fullback, and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso is absolutely electric out wide on the wing if England can create space for him. However, even if their combinations don’t always click New Zealand’s offering in the backs packs massive danger. From the always headline-grabbing exploits of fullback Will Jordan to Leicester Fainga’anuku and speedster Leroy Carter out wide, England’s defensive set will be tested to the limit, along with a powerful and quick All Black centre pairing. Carter, in particular, has an unnerving habit of popping up where you least expect him and causing all kinds of havoc, in much the same vein as the Springboks’ diminutive wingers. In short, excuse the pun, but highly mobile and dangerous small men with an eye for space and how to use it.
Much has been made of England’s “Pom Squad” as a variation on the Springboks’ infamous “Bomb Squad”. We have to admit it certainly looks dangerous, with peroxide blonde back row sensation Henry Pollock grabbing plenty of headline space. Some feel the exuberant young man needs to learn some humility, but to be honest, we enjoy his unabashed showmanship at times, as his skill set justifies it. Rugby has always had its brash entertainers; they are part of the landscape, whether you like them or not, and they help to make the game as colorful and emotional as it can be at times. You could never accuse Pollock of not getting fans invested and involved in the game through his unbridled enthusiasm. However, Pollock aside, that’s a competent English bench with the old warhorse Tom Curry always a clear and present danger.
If England has a potential weakness, it could be those last two spots on the bench taken up by Marcus Smith and Ben Spencer. We’d argue New Zealand’s offering is much stronger when you throw in the kind of heroic sacrifices Damian McKenzie made against Scotland last weekend. McKenzie is the kind of player that can bring you back from the brink, and the images of McKenzie at the end of the Murrayfield clash, where he looked like one of the few bloodied survivors of the first rush over the top of the trenches at the Somme, said it all. We’re just not sure that Marcus Smith is of the same calibre when all the chips are down. Don’t get us wrong, Smith is a remarkable player, but McKenzie’s all-court skills put him in a different league, at least for the moment.
Either way, this should be a classic and without a doubt the biggest game of the weekend. So strap yourselves in and brace for impact!
England vs New Zealand – Saturday, November 15th – 10:10 AM (Eastern) – DAZN, Premier Sports Asia and Stan Sports Australia (live and on demand)
Ireland and Australia need a big game on Saturday, plain and simple – something which seems to be eluding them both lately
These two teams are decidedly unsure of themselves and trying to understand why, given their talent, the stars aren’t aligning for them all of a sudden. Does that sound about right in summing up how Ireland and Australia must be feeling heading into their meeting at the Aviva this Saturday? Australia’s season started so positively this year, running the Lions close and ultimately losing the Series, but still denying the tourists a whitewash. Then, who can forget that epic upset of the Springboks at their hallowed ground of Johannesburg’s Ellis Park at the start of the Rugby Championship? Since then, the euphoria has started to wane, culminating in that humiliating defeat to Italy last weekend. Things don’t really get any easier in the shape of admittedly a misfiring Ireland and France, but still two teams who are at home and have an urgent need to silence their critics, especially Ireland.
In relation to Ireland, 2025 has not been a year they will want to remember. A difficult Six Nations campaign, a mixed bag in terms of Irish performances on the Lions Tour with some awkward injuries thrown in, an utterly flat second half against New Zealand in the Chicago rematch, and an at times clumsy win over Japan. Ireland may sit third in the World Rankings, but they sure as hell don’t look like it at the moment. We’ve always said that if Ireland are to finally get their World Cup Quarter Final demon off their backs, they needed to embrace pain and change early on in this current World Cup cycle. We feel that in order to continue pursuing results at the expense of development, they have lost two valuable years in the process of rebuilding and are now trying to play catch-up and reinvent the wheel against the backdrop of a ticking and increasingly unforgiving clock.
It was interesting that when we were down in Chicago a fortnight ago, many of the Irish fans seemed almost resigned to Ireland’s current fate, and many felt that the only real positive would be learning valuable lessons from painful defeats to New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa. The general consensus was that Ireland and their Coaching staff had rested on the laurels of Ireland’s previous success, built around the core of a now rapidly ageing squad. While other teams were embracing their new talent and making sure they got plenty of game time, Ireland seemed reluctant to take similar leaps of faith, despite some clearly defined talent. Furthermore, Coach Andy Farrell’s seeming predisposition to build the core of his squad around the blue of Leinster, with all the other provinces as fringe additions, didn’t seem to be helping develop Ireland’s depth.
This weekend’s lineup for Ireland does little to dispel such concerns. Of the starting fifteen, 12 wear the blue of Leinster in the URC. It’s only the bench where there is a glimmer of the four proud provinces of Ireland, as despite the front row being an all-Leinster affair, Connacht, Ulster, and Munster all get a look in. Meanwhile, the Prendergast/Crowley fly-half debate continues at fever pitch, with Crowley now on the bench after starting Ireland’s first two November Tests. Despite a wobbly showing at times against Japan and a poor second half in Chicago, we’d still argue the Munster man is the preferred choice. Prendergast has some magic, and some of his offloads when he came off the bench against Japan had to be seen to be believed. However, are they what’s needed for a punishing and bruising encounter with South Africa a week from now, and are his defensive liabilities enough to keep a rampaging Wallaby backline in check?
As for Australia, we are really struggling to understand how the wheels have fallen off so dramatically after such a bright start to 2025. With the departure of Coach Joe Schmidt at the end of the month, these are indeed worrying signs. We could understand it if Australia were a poor team, which, let’s be brutally honest, they were until the end of last year. However, that is not the case now, but suddenly the results are eluding them. Their set-piece work is solid if not spectacular; they have an outstanding set of highly physical, very mobile second- and back-row forwards, and their backs and centres are world-class. The weak links in the chain would appear to be their halfback pairings and the age-old problem of a lack of discipline that has plagued Wallaby sides for much of the last decade. They gave away twice as many penalties as Italy last weekend. The porous defences that are often the downfall of Australian sides in Super Rugby are also creeping back into the Wallabies’ performances in their last 6 games. Their average tackle success rate in their previous six matches has been a paltry 82%, which is nowhere near where it needs to be at this level. They’ll take some comfort in the fact that, at present, Ireland’s is also pretty poor, but it’s not much to cheer about.
Consequently, this weekend’s game between the two sides is a high-stakes affair. Were Australia to pick up a win, it would be a massive shot in the arm ahead of a tough final hurrah of the year against a French side who will be looking to make a statement after a disappointing performance against South Africa last weekend. For Ireland, it’s time to start looking at what the youngsters in the team can do. It’s time for Paddy McCarthy, Dan Sheehan, Sam Prendergast, Tommy O’Brien, Thomas Clarkson, Cian Prendergast, Craig Casey, and Jack Crowley to really start to take ownership of their jerseys with an eye to Ireland’s future, and Saturday must be a marker for it.
Ireland vs Australia – Saturday, November 15th – 3:10 PM (Eastern) – DAZN, Premier Sports Asia and Stan Sports Australia (live and on demand)
If you want spice and fast, free flowing rugby then look no further than Murrayfield this weekend
We are so looking forward to this one, and in terms of pure rugby entertainment, it’s the game we’re most excited about. New Zealand and England may be the titanic struggle of this weekend, but this game should be a fitting end to a weekend complete with plenty of fireworks and pyrotechnics. Both these teams love to play fast, free-flowing, and at times borderline chaotic attacking rugby. It’s just so much fun to watch. Throw in Argentina’s monster forward pack crashing through defences like Australian land trains with brake failures, and you’ll be hard pressed to find a better way to spend two hours of your morning on Sunday.
As of this going online, we are still without the team sheets, but it does look like Scotland maestro Finn Russell will be available at fly-half. Scotland produced some magical rugby at times last weekend against the All Blacks, but that ongoing inability to close out big games in the final quarter tripped them up yet again. However, when you have the likes of centre Sione Tuipolutu, Darcy Graham, and Kyle Steyn out wide with Blair Kinghorn at the back and Finn Russell pulling the strings, literally ANYTHING can happen, and it did last weekend.
However, Argentina are more than capable of pulling off similar heroics, as evidenced by their performance against a courageous but ultimately poor Welsh side last weekend. Although it’s a side note, we feel we have to give honorable mention to Welsh Captain and back rower Jac Morgan, who picked up a nasty arm injury, which sees him out of the rest of the November Tests. Morgan is one of our favourite players here at the Lineout, and his never-say-die workaholic attitude continues to garner our utmost respect, even though it’s saddled to a seemingly lost cause at the moment. As a result, we are absolutely gutted that he will play no further part in November’s action, and wish him a speedy recovery.
Still back to Argentina, whose kicking and offloading game had to be seen to be believed last weekend in their utterly emphatic win over Wales. Argentina seems to be producing a veritable conveyor belt of world-class tens at the moment. Their latest project, Geronimo Prisciantelli, was outstanding last weekend, alongside the excellent Santiago Carreras at fullback, who is also more than handy in the ten jersey. Add in Tomas Albornoz, who will sadly miss this November’s campaign due to injury. Still, Argentina are veritably locked and loaded in the fly-half berth ahead of the World Cup, and we’re pretty sure they will unearth yet another star in the making between now and then.
Argentina thoroughly deserve their ranking as the sixth-best team in the world, and imagine what they could do if they mastered the art of consistency from one game to the next, something that continues to plague them and deny them their true potential. Wales made them look perhaps slightly better than they really are, and Scotland should be a much sterner Test, especially if the Scots play the way they did against New Zealand. It’s predicted to be a dry track, which should favor running rugby on Sunday in Edinburgh, so these two exciting sides should be able to operate at full throttle. Even if your fan loyalties lie elsewhere this weekend, this is one game that every rugby-loving neutral will not want to miss this month. If you fancy a spin on the roller coasters this weekend, this will be your game!
Scotland vs Argentina – Sunday, November 16th – 10:10 AM (Eastern) – DAZN, Premier Sports Asia and Stan Sports Australia (live and on demand)
Well, folks, that’s it for this week. We have to apologise in advance that next week’s missive is much more likely to be the condensed version we used last week, as work looks set to eat up much of our time, but we’ll do our best. Enjoy the rugby; there should be lots to get excited about.
On a sad note, one of our favourite YouTubers, Mark from Two Cents Rugby, shared some tragic news with us this week, which you may have noticed if you regularly watch his excellent content. His father, the legendary Gazza, whose frank and honest commentary has given us so much over the last few years when he has joined Mark on his videos, is not well and, sadly, may not be with us for much longer. We at the Lineout were absolutely devastated to learn this, but let’s all fulfill Gazza’s wishes and help get Mark’s subscriber count over the 100,000 mark if you’re not a subscriber already. From all of us here at the Lineout, take care, Gazza, wherever your journey takes you. You will be sorely missed.
The Lineout 