The Lineout

With the dust settled on Round 3, the Rugby Championship seems to be entering an all too familiar pattern once we get to the halfway point in the tournament. New Zealand start to pull away dramatically on the table leaving their opponents in the dust, while the other three engage in a frantic scramble for position, with Australia and South Africa usually having the better odds leaving Argentina to pick up the crumbs. While this year seems to be no different there are still clearly some major differences from years gone by, which consequently make this year’s edition of the tournament such a fascinating contest.

New Zealand are clearly going through a major phase of experimentation which has led to mixed fortunes in terms of performances on the pitch. Sure they’ve won all their games, and with the possible exception of the Round 2 fixture against Australia, by a comfortable margin. However, at times they have looked less than their usual clinical selves. Just as we saw on the Lions Tour and on the road last November, there are some missing links in the All Blacks supposed invincibility. Nevertheless, before their opposition gets too excited there is still some mind-boggling depth and talent available to Coach Steve Hansen and the New Zealand selectors which means that although they may be vulnerable at times right now, by the time the World Cup rolls around in two years time the arsenal at their disposal will be alarming to say the least. Last weekend’s rumble with Argentina, left us once more with egg all over our faces in predicting the scoreline when it came to New Zealand matches, as we had predicted a 32 point whitewash of Argentina by the Men in Black. However, we were delighted to have our crystal ball gazing turned on its head, as Argentina put in a fantastic 55 minutes of rugby but then failed to back themselves and consequently New Zealand, as they always seem to do, spotted the weaknesses and put in a ruthless final quarter. In doing so, they once more put on show some truly dazzling new talent in the shape of flanker Vaea Fifita. There was clearly a sense of deja vu watching the 25-year-old brushing a stunned Argentinian defense aside, akin to the great Jonah Lomu tossing English defenders aside like rag dolls at ninety miles an hour in the 1999 World Cup. Meanwhile winger Nehe Milner-Skudder, who for us was the find of 2015 for New Zealand, returned to the Test fold with a vengeance. And while debates rage in New Zealand around the readiness of fullback Damian McKenzie to make it at Test Level, we sit firmly in the camp that feels he needs the opportunities he is getting now. While he made some significant errors last Saturday, when he got it right there is no question that this player possesses some sublime ability. The question in our opinion is more about where to play McKenzie and how to use his considerable talents, than whether or not he is Test calibre yet.

In short, we have found some of the gloom and doom in the New Zealand media around the All Blacks performances so far this year rather bemusing. They are still for the most part mopping the floor with the opposition they face, albeit with difficulty at times, and boasting some talent both old and new that would make most Coaches and selectors feeling that they had died and gone to rugby heaven. In our opinion this year is all about experimentation with players and combinations for New Zealand. Expect next year to be all about consolidation and putting the finishing touches to a team that is likely once more to have everyone else quaking in their boots come the opening whistle of the Rugby World Cup in Japan. In the process New Zealand may occasionally trip up and, dare we say it lose the odd big Test, but are they still likely to remain the benchmark team going into the World Cup? Whoever you support we would be willing to bet you would probably have to answer yes to that question.

South Africa, as we feared they would, started to lose some of the momentum of their excellent start to the Test calendar this year. Life on the road has rarely been kind to the Springboks in recent years and the cracks once more started to show in Perth. This was the contest we were looking forward to the most last weekend, but instead found the Pumas/All Blacks clash to be the more enthralling of the two. Perhaps because both teams had so much to prove, a cautious game of rugby from both sides unfolded which consequently saw neither side able to play to their respective strengths, resulting in a less than satisfying draw. Don’t get us wrong, there were some great moments, Wallaby centre Kurtley Beale’s try was pure magic and it was great to see Springbok flanker Siya Kolisi cross the whitewash in his typical barnstorming manner. However, too many key players on both sides remained strangely quiet for much of the match and were rarely able to assert themselves. South Africa’s second half resurgence in our opinion was led by their incomparable flanker Jaco Kriel, who provides so much quiet leadership to this Springbok side and as a result his absence due to injury for this weekend’s crucial fixture against New Zealand, could well be a death-blow for the Springboks. Australia are still clearly emerging from the wreckage of the last few months and the turmoil created by the country’s Super Rugby crisis, but once more some exceptional players were strangely quiet and reluctant to really make a statement in a critical Test last weekend.

Lastly, we take our hats off to the men from Argentina, who last weekend managed to make our crystal ball gazing look rather amateurish. As regular readers of this blog know, as neutrals we are some of Argentina’s biggest supporters and consequently frustrated by the lack of results from what we consider is a potentially lethal Test entity. Argentina, despite their critics, came to the party and then some last weekend in New Plymouth and we thoroughly enjoyed the spectacle. Playing with poise, discipline and intent for the first fifty minutes they looked fantastic and there was even the hint of an upset to end all upsets. Sadly it wasn’t to be, and even though it was unlikely that they would ultimately have beaten New Zealand in their own backyard, the scoreline could have been so much closer had they just had the confidence to back themselves a bit more. For us the turning point in the match was on the 50th minute, when with New Zealand a man down, Argentina failed to believe in themselves and chose an easy kick at goal rather than kick for touch and go for the seven pointer. They had New Zealand under enormous pressure, and as everyone knows you don’t beat the All Blacks or even run them close with three pointers. Against New Zealand it’s all about getting across the whitewash, and Argentina will hopefully take this lesson to heart on the return fixture in Argentina as well as applying it to the Wallabies this weekend in Perth. All that aside however, one has to make special mention of the other find of the weekend alongside New Zealand’s Vaea Fifita – Pumas winger Emiliano Boffelli. In short – spectacular and given his astounding kicking abilities by the time of the World Cup expect to see this guy slotting drop goals from his own 22!

So given there is so much food for thought from last weekend, let’s have a look at this weekend’s fascinating matchups for two eagerly anticipated contests!

New Zealand vs South Africa
Saturday, September 16th
Albany

As we mentioned above, the loss for South Africa of their outstanding flanker Jaco Kriel has sadly put a whole different complexion on this match for us, but we still anticipate an epic match with no quarters given, as one of Test Rugby’s greatest rivalries is once again put on display. However, New Zealand at home and given the squad they have assembled for this fixture will be extremely difficult to beat. South Africa will have to dig deep and with the absence of Kriel and Whiteley, the Springboks biggest Test of the year may see them lacking much of the polish that has rightly given us so much to cheer about this year. We hope to be proven wrong, but the Springbok supporters amongst us are feeling more than just a little anxious about this one, with the term damage limitation, perhaps being foremost in our minds.

Two great forward packs will go head to head on Saturday, with an intriguing battle in the front rows. South Africa and New Zealand as a result of injuries have been forced to make major changes here. For the Springboks, Coenie Oosthuizen is replaced by Ruan Dreyer, while the All Black front row sees Kane Hames and Nepo Laulala start alongside experienced Hooker Dane Coles. Although Dreyer has had a good season with the Lions, we sadly feel that technically and discipline wise he is somewhat lacking especially in relation to Oosthuizen. Despite the lack of Test experience of the two New Zealand props we like the look of Laulala. However, we can’t help feeling that the contest between exceptional Springbok Hooker Malcolm Marx and New Zealand’s Dane Coles will be one of the highlights of the weekend. Meanwhile Springbok prop Tendai Mtawarira is having an epic year, and consequently with Coles only just back from injury and the relative inexperience of his two props, we feel that South Africa should just have the edge here, provided Dreyer can put in the game of his career to date and keep his discipline and composure under pressure. However, if South Africa are struggling here come the final quarter, New Zealand’s bench should secure the killer punch in the shape of Wyatt Crockett and Codie Taylor, with the latter clearly having the ability to fill Coles’ enormous boots. The Springboks Steven Kitshoff can be a real game changer, but if significant damage has been done by the time he comes on, it will be difficult for him to stem the tide.

The second row contest should be the stuff of legends, and definitely in tune with the character of the traditional rivalry between these two teams. New Zealand’s Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick are without a shadow of a doubt the best in the business right now, requiring an enormous effort from South Africa’s Eben Etzebeth and Franco Mostert to keep them in check. The South African pair are more than up to the challenge and we are huge fans of Mostert, but he really needs to put in a massive performance on Saturday, while the intensity of the contest will seriously test Etzebeth’s cool and discipline under pressure, something which he has struggled with in the past and which we saw flashes of last weekend in Perth. If the South Africans can hold their own here for sixty minutes, then there is a chance that their bench could swing this contest in their favor in the shape of the exceptional Pieter-Steph du Toit and Lood de Jager. Du Toit has provided some spectacular impact for South Africa in the last two years, and the Springboks will be expecting a signficant contribution from the young lock in the final quarter. Nevertheless we expect New Zealand’s starting pair to get the better of an exceptionally tight contest, with some of the niggles involved ultimately causing Etzebeth to lose his calm and discipline as a result.

In the back rows, as we have already said the loss of Jaco Kriel is likely to be a huge hole to fill. Nevertheless South Africa will be packing some serious firepower in the shape of the incomparable Siya Kolisi and Jean-Luc Du Preez. Du Preez really made us sit up and take notice during the series against France, and despite being saddened by the loss of Kriel we are delighted to see the youngster get a well deserved starting spot, despite the magnitude of the challenge he faces. If he and Kolisi really click then New Zealand’s Sam Cane and Liam Squire are going to have their hands full. However, despite the raw talent of the two South Africans we feel the calm head and experience of New Zealand’s Sam Cane and explosive power of Squire should give New Zealand a slight edge in this contest. However, with the arrival of Ardie Savea as a replacement for New Zealand, whatever parity South Africa may achieve here is likely to be sorely tested. Savea is a bit of a conundrum for us, and as result we side with the view that he is more of an impact player at the moment than a starter. If you watch the game last week against Argentina where he was in the starting lineup, it was clear at times that his live wire, almost frantic style of play, is hard to fit into an overall strategy for a team from the outset. Once dominance has been established and secured Savea’s destructive unpredictability as a loose cannon can then prove devastatingly effective in the final quarter, but perhaps a potential liability in the opening three-quarters of a match. As a result we feel his place on the bench as opposed to the starting fifteen is the right call from Coach Steve Hansen.

At number 8, sadly it’s going to be all about New Zealand, plain and simple in the shape of Keiran Read. An exceptional Captain and player, Read is simply streets ahead of South African newcomer Uzair Cassiem, despite us being pleasantly surprised by some of his performances so far. There’s simply too much experience and outright rugby knowledge on Read’s shoulders, for Cassiem to do much more than try to keep him in sight for the course of the match, as opposed to asserting any kind of dominance.

In the halfbacks, once again we hand the battle to New Zealand. Injury has once more plagued South Africa here, with Ross Cronje out at scrum half and the mercurial Francois Hougaard in instead. While Cronje may not be the most exciting player on the planet we still prefer his sense of calm over Hougaard’s sometimes careless exuberance. Under pressure Hougaard can often implode and his decision-making and execution start to suffer. It’s a tough call as in his own right he can be an amazing player at times, but consistency does seem to be a concern. Elton Jantjies needs no introduction at fly half, and has consistently performed so far this year for the Springboks despite a rather invisible second half in Perth last weekend. What also concerned us in the second half from Jantjies against Australia was the tendency to revert to the aimless kicking and giving away of possession that has plagued South African sides over the last few years. If South Africa do that on Saturday, then New Zealand will end up running riot against them and exposing their suspect defences out wide. We don’t see anything on the South African bench to really address this should things start to go awry. New Zealand on the other hand have it all going on in this area of the game, both in the starting fifteen and on the bench. Aaron Smith is clearly in a league of his own at the moment, with perhaps only Ireland’s Conor Murray able to give him a run for his money. There has been much talk about All Black fly half Beauden Barrett of late, much of it negative. For us we see only two concerns. Firstly his lack of consistency in the goal kicking department. Like we say he is not a bad goal kicker and on his day can be outstanding, the problem of late is just a complete lack of consistency in this area of his game. Brilliant one match, and then unable to hit a barn door the next, this is clearly an issue for New Zealand. Like many we agree that this is surely the time to give Damian McKenzie the goal kicking duties, and allow Barrett to focus on his exceptional play making and game management abilities. Our second concern with Barrett would be an increasing lack of discipline when under pressure, making the case for removing some of this pressure by giving the goal kicking duties to McKenzie. However, even if Barrett is off the boil again, his replacement Lima Sopoaga has shown that he is more than capable of making amends. Add to this TJ Perenara off the bench for Smith and this contest is clearly in New Zealand’s favor.

It’s the centre pairings, that are perhaps causing the most vocal debates in this match. We are going to stick our necks out and say that South Africa actually have the edge here at least for the first sixty minutes, an advantage that will rapidly go out the window if they have not held their own and made it count, once the bench comes into play. A controversial call we know, but we just feel that New Zealand’s centre partnerships are just not firing at the moment. New Zealand will be delighted with the return of Ryan Crotty, as are we, as in our opinion he is clearly one of the best in the business. However, Crotty sadly seems prone to more than his fair share of injury this year, and we doubt that he will last the match. His partner Sonny Bill Williams, just hasn’t made us sit up and take notice this year, and as a result feel that South Africa’s Jan Serfontein and Jesse Kriel’s seeming indestructibility, speed and power are more than a match for the All Black pair. The Springbok duo can really light up a pitch, as well as being exceptionally difficult to bring down once they’ve built up a head of steam. Given the injury doubts around Crotty, we consequently hand this battle by the slimmest of margins to South Africa. However, if the Springbok pair have not established dominance by the time the bench comes into play then with the arrival of New Zealand’s Anton Liennert-Brown then it could turn into a very long afternoon for South Africa. Sadly in our opinion South Africa’s offering of Damian de Allende is no match for the elusive New Zealander.

In the backs, it’s once again all about New Zealand. We hate to admit it, but despite some question marks around All Black fullback Damian McKenzie, South Africa’s back three are likely to be found sorely lacking by comparison on Saturday. New Zealand’s offering on the wings has excitement and danger written all over it in the shape of Nehe Milner-Skudder and newcomer Rieko Ioane. The two All Blacks have gas, panache and flair in a league of their own and are simply leagues ahead of their South African counterparts Courtnall Skosan and Raymond Rhule. We, despite a lot of views to the contrary in the South African press, have actually been pleasantly surprised by Raymond Rhule’s defensive abilities and give the guy some open space he is clearly a threat. However, the comparison between the All Black wing contingent and that of the Springboks is a bit like having a Lamborghini and Ferrari on one side and a Golf GTI and Audi TT on the other. Both are fun to drive, but one set is clearly more likely to be in the rear view mirrors for much of the time. At fullback, despite some of the controversy surrounding Damian McKenzie, we still feel the decision to have him in the All Black line up is the right call by Coach Steve Hansen. Sure he still has a lot to learn, but as witnessed in his own try and the one he set up for winger Nehe Milner-Skudder last weekend, he is an exceptionally dangerous and difficult player to contain. While we agree there are issues with his tactical kicking game, and some concerns about his abilities under the high ball, we feel these are all things he will master with continued exposure at this level. The big question mark is whether or not he will take over some of the goal kicking from Beauden Barrett, which in our opinion could be key on Saturday. While many in New Zealand rightly see the injured Jordi Barrett as New Zealand’s long-term solution to the fullback position there is no question that McKenzie has a role in this All Black team, it just remains to be determined in what capacity. South Africa’s Andries Coetzee is developing nicely into the role of fullback for the Springboks but will need to really capitalise on any mistakes McKenzie makes, and make the resulting pressure count if South Africa are to be even remotely competitive in the back line battles.

This is going to be a tough, physical contest with emotions on both sides running close to the boiling point in the best tradition of match ups between these legendary rivals. However, for us South Africa still look far too much like a work in progress, especially in the backs, for it to be anything other than a convincing All Black victory by the final whistle. South Africa will give it their all, and likely be competitive well into the final quarter. However, it’s the question marks around South Africa’s game management and back line ability which should dictate that New Zealand will be able to close the game out with some clinical flair in the last fifteen minutes. Should still be the game of the weekend, with New Zealand ultimately pulling away by 13 points at the end!

Australia vs Argentina
Saturday, September 16th
Canberra

Let’s face it, this is a great weekend for Test Rugby and this contest only looks set to round out some epic entertainment. Both sides have EVERYTHING to prove. Argentina were, against all odds, exceptionally competitive last weekend against New Zealand, and caused the All Blacks no end of headaches at times. Add to that the revelation that winger Emiliano Boffelli seems to be able to slot the ball between the posts from his backyard in Argentina and Australia will be well aware of the challenge the South Americans will present them with on Saturday in Canberra. Australia produced the Test of the Tournament so far in Dunedin last month, and as a result when this team fires it is going to be very hard to contain. In short, this should be a great match and one which we are eagerly looking forward to.

In the front rows, despite some significant progress made by Australia in the last few weeks, we still hand the battle to Argentina and a return to their characteristic scrum dominance of old. Pumas Hooker Agustin Creevy, put on one of his Captain Fantastic performances last weekend and expect more of the same this weekend. As he so often does he led his troops with his body and soul and provided the inspiration that is so key to whether or not his charges come to the party, something they did in no uncertain terms last weekend against New Zealand. We still think the front row partnership of Creevy, and props Lucas Paz and Nahuel Tetaz is a more effective unit than Australia’s Scott Sio and Sekope Kepu. However, we think Australia has solved many of their problems at Hooker with Tatafu Polota-Nau. The contest should be even with the Australians potentially being the more powerful of the two, but we just feel that under Creevy’s leadership Argentina should have the edge here.

In the second rows, we also just give the nod to Argentina in the shape of Guido Petti and Matias Alemanno, both of whom we rate highly. By the same token we have enormous faith in Australia’s Adam Coleman, and as regular readers know we rate him as one of Australia’s brightest prospects for the future in the mold of the great John Eales. However, his second row partner Rob Simmons selection has left us scratching our heads, especially as Coleman and Rory Arnold seem to work so effectively together. To add insult to injury Arnold doesn’t even make the bench and we are completely baffled as to why, and feel that Australia and Coach Michael Cheika are going to rue this decision on Saturday.

In the back rows, we also feel that Argentina can get the better of Australia. Much has been said of newcomer Ned Hanigan at flanker for Australia. Many have called him invisible but if you actually look at the statistics for last weekend’s match against South Africa it would appear he had a pretty busy afternoon. Consequently we reserve judgement, but by the same token he hasn’t really done anything to get our attention, even though his partner Michael Hooper has been outstanding in the last two Tests for Australia. For Argentina however, we just think the bruising ball carrying abilities and defensive attributes, especially at the breakdown if they can keep their disicipline, of the Pumas Pablo Matera and Javier Ortega Desio are that much more dangerous and destructive. We may be wrong but we give Argentina the nod by a very small margin here.

At number eight, however, the balance swings back to Australia. Sean McMahon had an absolute blinder of a game in the second Test against New Zealand, and this is an exceptional player. However, like many in the Wallaby squad he seemed rather quiet last weekend, so if he shows up on Saturday like he did against New Zealand, Argentina’s Tomas Lezana may pale into insignificance. While Lezana is certainly an able player, we actually preferred the look of Benjamin Macome who we thought had an outstanding game against New Zealand, to the point where we were even starting to relax about the loss of Facundo Isa for the Pumas. However, Lezana although having plenty of talent is not quite the same calibre of McMahon.

In the halfbacks, it’s an even contest and one we can’t call. Both sets of halfbacks ooze talent but really need to click, something that they have trouble doing consistently. Argentina’s Martin Landajo and Nicolas Sanchez can be masters of game management when the stars line up for them but we have yet to see this happen consistently this year. The same can be said for Australia’s Will Genia and Bernard Foley. Individually brilliant, with Genia producing one of the games of his career in the second Test against New Zealand, the Australian pair rarely asserted any kind of influence on proceedings against South Africa last weekend. However, we actually feel that Tomas Cubelli off the bench at scrum half is a stronger player than Australia’s Nick Phipps, plus Cubelli is more than familiar with Canberra as a surrounding, as he plays with the Brumbies. Impossible to call, but we think given the bench and if Argentina’s pair fire, Argentina could have the better day here.

In the centres, we fancy Australia’s chances. Since coming back from his time at Wasps in the English Premiership, Wallaby centre Kurtley Beale is on FIRE. Despite Australia’s problems at times this year, he has consistently stood out in every Test they have played. In short – brilliant and alongside the destructive force and power of Tevita Kuridrani, Australia have the clear edge here over the equally talented but less experienced Pumas duo of Jeronimo  De la Fuente and Matias Orlando. As brilliant as Samu Kerevi is for the Wallabies off the bench, he was exposed defensively in no uncertain terms against New Zealand, and if the Pumas are gaining any kind of momentum here, this could be a concern for Australia going into the final quarter.

However, in the backs, we are once more putting our money on Argentina. After his monster boot performance last weekend, we doubt many are surprised to see Emiliano Boffelli off the wing and in at fullback for the Pumas. Boffelli is all class and as usual Argentina produce one of the top ten most exciting newcomers of the year in this exceptionally capable player. Australia’s Israel Folau is a player of enormous pedigree and talent, but he seems to be all over the park in one Test for Australia and then strangely absent in the next – last week’s performance against the Springboks versus his performance in the second Test against New Zealand being a perfect example. Right now given the WOW factor surrounding Boffelli we give Argentina a better chance in the contest between the two. On the wings, we also feel that Argentina possess a bit more X-factor in the shape of Matias Moroni and Ramiro Moyano, with Manuel Montero packing a few more surprises up his sleeve off the bench. These are three big, fast and powerful men who will be difficult to contain. Henry Speight for Australia has definitely caused defences some serious problems so far this year, and for us Reece Hodge can be very effective if Australia are able to play to his strengths, as well as him being a strong defensive proposition. However, if Argentina are getting the upper hand here we feel their bench and any traction they have gained on the Australian defences should give them an advantage in this contest.

This should be a very tight and enthralling match between two very evenly placed and competitive teams. We think we may be wrong, but on paper we actually feel that Argentina are fielding the better unit, and as a result think they are more than in with a chance on this one. However, it is that inability to back themselves at times and lose the plot in the final quarter that prove such liabilities for them and negate any dominance they may have established in the first hour. Fortunately they seem to have got a handle on their discipline and their execution seems to have improved. The big question is can they hold it together for 80 minutes? Sadly we feel that despite many of the odds being in their favor on Saturday, that ability is just not there at the moment especially away from home. We think the Pumas could steal this by two points, but given home advantage are actually giving it to the Wallabies by two! Either way folks hold on to your hats and pints as this could be a real humdinger!

Endnote

We’re including the 1014’s excellent preview of this year’s Rugby Championship on YouTube. As stated after the Lions Tour, we are HUGE fans of the work these two fine gentlemen, Steven and Gareth, are doing. So give them a big thumbs up and subscribe in order to keep this excellent content coming. Well done guys and looking forward to more!

And as always head over to our TV listings page for video highlights if you missed last weekend’s action:

https://therugbylineout.com/tvinternet-game-listings/

This weekend’s action is sure to have most of us glued to our TV screens especially the match between Australia and South Africa in Perth. Of all the teams, these two have given us the most food for thought. The horror show that was 2016 is clearly over for the Springboks, and the importance of that first win of the year on the road against Argentina cannot be understated for South Africa. Meanwhile the spectacle that unfolded in Dunedin between Australia and New Zealand in Round 2 was one which we will all be talking about for a long time to come. Given the fact that most people, ourselves included, had written off Australia before the match, the turnaround in the Wallabies’ fortunes in the space of a mere 7 days and on the road to boot was the stuff of legends. Full marks must go to their Coach Michael Cheika and the character that his charges showed a fortnight ago in Dunedin. Meanwhile Argentina, seem at sixes and sevens despite some obvious potential, but perhaps their biggest concern is a disciplinary issue that is crippling any chances they may have to be competitive.

The match between Australia and New Zealand in Dunedin was breathtaking and definitely one of the most memorable Test Matches we’ve seen for a long time. Australia came out all guns blazing and their opening three try blitz left most of us, who had predicted a whitewash by the Men in Black, with a healthy smattering of egg on our faces. It was brilliant, energetic attacking rugby from the Wallabies and they were playing as a unit as opposed to the individual flashes of brilliance we saw from Australian players in the second half of the opening match of the Rugby Championship between Australia and New Zealand. New Zealand were slightly out of sorts and their defensive structures were clearly battling to come to grips with Australia’s new-found sense of purpose, execution and intensity. Australia appeared to have completely reinvented themselves in the space of seven days, and as mentioned above, to do this on the road is quite an achievement. New Zealand once more looked rattled at times, and as a result were making errors we are simply not used to seeing while at the same time their defence looked alarmingly porous far too often. However, once more though the All Blacks demonstrated their remarkable ability to regroup in the final quarter, and as always their bench were able to deal the final hammer blows to close out a game that had produced some spectacular rugby from both sides. It’s this ability to finish, unlike any other Test side at the moment, which still makes New Zealand the benchmark team to beat. However, as we have seen on the Lions tour, last year in Chicago and in the opening rounds of the Rugby Championship, New Zealand are clearly trying to shape the team they want for the 2019 World Cup – a process that is clearly not without its teething problems. Are they still the team to beat? Yes. Can they be beaten? It would seem on the evidence of the last twelve months – yes albeit with great difficulty. Don’t get us wrong we are huge fans of New Zealand, but it does make International Rugby that much more interesting if every time the All Blacks grace a pitch it is not necessarily a foregone conclusion as to who the winner will be, as it essentially has been since the 2011 World Cup.

In the other contest between South Africa and Argentina, the Springboks showed that the momentum since the series against France in June is clearly building and more importantly can be maintained when the team is on the road. Admittedly Argentina are struggling to define themselves at the moment, but South Africa played with purpose, cohesion and a focus that was clearly lacking in 2016. Despite the struggles South Africa went through last year, we never doubted for a moment that the country was not blessed with some truly impressive rugby talent. We always felt that once that talent was allowed to come to the fore and the politics plaguing South African rugby was put aside, then South Africa would once more become the powerhouse of International Rugby it has always been. Consequently we are delighted to see the Springbok jersey being worn with such pride and intent this year and more importantly producing the results that justify such beliefs. Argentina on the other hand are clearly struggling to map out their path to the 2019 World Cup. Like South Africa there is some remarkable rugby talent in Argentina, although it clearly doesn’t have as much depth in terms of a player base that South Africa has. However, since the last World Cup and the inclusion of an Argentinean franchise in Super Rugby, Argentina have struggled to turn their considerable prowess on paper into results on the pitch. Always competitive and a force to underestimate at your peril, Argentina just can’t seem to string a solid eighty minute performance together at the moment. Add to that their woeful disciplinary record, and despite the world-class brilliance of many of their players, it would appear that they are often playing with one hand tied behind their backs. We hope it changes soon as they still remain one of our favourite teams to watch, and one which can produce some breath-taking rugby when they click as a team.

So with that said, let’s look at the matchups this weekend for Round 3.

New Zealand vs Argentina
Saturday, September 9th
New Plymouth

Despite some of the question marks around New Zealand at the moment, especially in defence, it is hard to see Argentina pulling off the kind of upset that Australia came so close to doing in Dunedin a fortnight ago. We have to admit to liking the Pumas team sheet for this match, especially up against perhaps the most experimental All Black side we’ve seen in a while. However, there is still enough star-studded power in the All Blacks side that will run out in New Plymouth to make life incredibly difficult for a Pumas side that would appear to have lost its way in the last year. Still as mentioned above, underestimate the South Americans at your peril and as we saw last year in this round of the Rugby Championship, Argentina certainly gave New Zealand a healthy scare in the first half. Whether they will be able to do so this year remains to be seen but they will clearly be up for the challenge.

Up front it’s clear that Argentina are not the force of old, and the All Black front row offering for Saturday’s clash should get the upper hand. Argentina’s front row of prop Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Hooker and Captain Agustin Creevy and prop Lucas Noguera Paz is a solid and capable unit, but they clearly struggled against a rampant South African front row in the opening two fixtures of the Championship. New Zealand sees Hooker Dane Coles back to his best with props Joe Moody and Nepo Laulala a real force to be reckoned with. Moody has been superb so far in the Championship, and despite his lack of experience we really like the potential we see in Laulala. In the second rows, Sam Whitelock gets a much-needed break, being replaced by Luke Romano, but the indomitable Brodie Retallick remains. Retallick is simply in a class of his own and has been for quite a while now. Even though the jury is out for us on Romano, the mere presence of Retallick should cover for any shortcomings in his teammate. We do think although they’ll come off second best here, Argentina will be competitive. Even though he has had a quiet tournament so far, we are huge fans of the Pumas’ Guido Petti and his fellow second rower Matias Alemanno also brings much to the table for Argentina. In the back row although we were slightly surprised to see Sam Cane on the bench for New Zealand, we have to confess to being more than just a little excited about seeing Ardie Savea getting a start at 7. In our opinion he is one of the most destructive and unpredictable loose forwards in Test Rugby and Argentina are going to have to work overtime to keep him in check. His back row partner for us is a surprise in Vaea Fifita, who normally plays in the second row for the Hurricanes. As a result we can’t really say too much here. However, we have yet to see Argentina’s answer in the shape of Javier Ortega Desio and Pablo Matera really fire this year, and Matera has had more than his fair share of disciplinary discussions with referees. So despite the experimentation New Zealand should comfortably win the day here, especially when you have Kieran Read shoring everything up at number eight, even though we’ve heard great things about new Argentinian number eight Benjamin Macome.

The half backs see All Black scrum half Aaron Smith sit this match out, and TJ Perenara get the starting position, with Chiefs scrum half Tawera Kerr-Barlow on the bench. There is no question that Perenara is an exceptional player, but his penchant for trying to referee the game alongside his scrum half duties has meant that he sometimes doesn’t have the overall view of the game and opportunities that can be created that Smith does, as he focuses too much on the immediate action in front of him. Meanwhile Kerr-Barlow has some real skill but struggles with consistency and the kind of game management needed at this level – attributes that will only improve with continued exposure. However, Beauden Barrett remains for New Zealand at flyhalf and now he seems to have found his goalkicking boots again, it would seem that this contest should sit firmly in New Zealand’s favour. Tomas Cubelli is Argentina’s scrum half, and in a match where the slightest mistake will cost you dearly, we feel his slightly calmer albeit more conservative approach to the game is a wise choice, leaving Martin Landajo to come in for impact later in the match. Pumas fly half Nicolas Sanchez makes his return but really needs to bring both his vision and accuracy back to the game, two qualities that we haven’t really seen from him that much this year.

In the back five we are absolutely ecstatic to see the return of winger Nehe Milner-Skudder into the starting fifteen. Having had the privilege of watching this exceptionally talented player in action at the last World Cup we can’t wait to see him in action on Saturday, and hope to see much more of this player during Ben Smith’s sabbatical. We are also happy to see Anton Lienert-Brown get a start at centre, though New Zealand will feel the loss of Ryan Crotty to injury. We have to confess to not being overly impressed with Lienert-Brown’s centre partner Sonny Bill Williams and have seen very little from him so far this year that justifies Coach Steve Hansen’s continued reliance on him. We’re not saying he’s a bad player, we just don’t think he is that creative and rather one-dimensional, making him much easier to read than his elusive partner Lienert-Brown. Still it would seem that New Zealand are struggling to find a long-term centre pairing, particularly if injuries continue to plague the exceptional Ryan Crotty. Israel Dagg makes a return to the wing while Damian McKenzie shores up the fort at fullback. We have to share the reservations that many in New Zealand seem to have regarding Damian McKenzie. He is utterly outstanding make no mistake, and on attack almost impossible to stop once he has built up a head of steam coupled with the fact he has a fantastic almost cat-like sense of where players are around him. However, we’re just not convinced he is Test level yet, but by the same token how is he going to become so without these kind of opportunities? Clearly a conundrum, but as a result a big performance will be expected from the youngster on Saturday to put such doubts to rest. Argentina bring their usual quality and excitement to the back five, particularly in the shape of winger Emiliano Boffelli and a welcome return of his teammate Santiago Cordero on the opposite wing. These two provide skill and speed all over the park, though Cordero’s star has dipped in relation to Boffelli’s meteoric rise this year. Matias Moroni is great value for money at centre, but his partner Jeronimo de la Fuente has yet to really stand out. Lastly the battle between the experienced head of Pumas fullback Joaquin Tuculet and New Zealand’s Damian McKenzie should be fascinating as both players can be electric with ball in hand, though we favor McKenzie to provide more of the surprises on Saturday. Argentina’s back line has danger written all over it, but the superb combination of youth, experience and extraordinary talent that New Zealand are boasting should see them dominate the metres made on Saturday.

We would love to see a tight contest, but sadly in Argentina’s current condition and the fact they are a long way from home, we can’t help feeling it is going to be a long and uncomfortable day in the office for Argentina. Their discipline should be better with wild card second rower and hot head Tomas Lavanini out of the equation, but experimentation aside, they are going up against a very skilled All Black side which if all its component parts click should be able to blast holes in a fractured Pumas defence from all over the park. Bring New Zealand’s bench into the equation and the deal should be sealed. Argentina to put up a good fight but ultimately New Zealand to run away with it by 32 points!

Australia vs South Africa
Saturday, September 9th
Perth

If Australia play anywhere near like they did a fortnight ago in Dunedin, South Africa will be put to their first major Test of 2017. Australia put in a blinder of a performance in the second round which made most of us eat humble pie, fortunately with a great deal of relish, as it was great to see Australia bounce back onto the world stage with a vengeance after the misery and rot that seemed to grip Australian rugby as a whole since the England tour to Australia last year. If Australia put in the kind of performance they put up against the All Blacks in Round 2, we will really get to see if the enormous progress South Africa has made this year is based on a solid foundation. South Africa really need to hold their own in what should be a serious challenge, with both sides having absolutely everything to prove in terms of where they are in the pecking order of International Test Rugby. This is clearly the game of the weekend, and one of the most eagerly anticipated match-ups of the tournament after Australia’s remarkable transformation a fortnight ago.

Despite a better showing at scrum time from Australia in Round 2, we still can’t help feeling that this is still a problem area for them, whereas for South Africa it is one of the defining features of their resurgence this year. The Springbok front row of props Tendai Mtawarira and Coenie Oosthuizen, with the exceptional Malcolm Marx at Hooker in the middle is a force to be reckoned with and Australia are going to struggle on Saturday to match up to the power and clinical efficiency of these three.  The only side that can in our opinion challenge South African dominance in this aspect of the game in this tournament is New Zealand. Australia is getting better but there is still too much work to be done to really match up to this South African trio, so we expect to see the Springboks dictating conditions in this department on Saturday.  However, one area we really were impressed by last week was Australia’s efforts in the second row. While they couldn’t match up to New Zealand’s remarkable partnership of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, Australia looked stronger here than they have in the past and we thought Wallaby lock Rory Arnold was one of the unsung heroes of Australia’s efforts in Round 2. Pair him up with the outstanding Adam Coleman, and Australia are clearly going to give as good as they get against South Africa’s Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit. We still favor the Springbok duo but it’s going to be quite the contest here. In the back row it’s South Africa all the way for us. Flankers Siya Kolisi and Jaco Kriel are already well on their way to taking this tournament by storm, and quite frankly we expect to see them run rings around Australia’s Ned Hanigan and Michael Hooper. Hooper had a solid game in Round 2, but as we saw in Round 1, put him under pressure and cracks appear while Hanigan has been almost invisible so far. However, at number eight Australia has a clear advantage in Sean McMahon who played out of his skin in the second match against New Zealand. We have always been a quiet fan of the Wallaby number eight and feel there are some very big performances to come from this gentleman as we head towards the World Cup, and he rewarded our confidence in his abilities a fortnight ago in no uncertain terms. His Springbok opposite Uzair Cassiem has pleasantly surprised us, but to contain a guy like McMahon we would much rather have seen Jean-Luc du Preez get the starting number eight berth, instead of getting a bench spot. However, overall we just feel that South Africa are going to dominate forward play in this match as the traditional ‘smash and bash’ Springbok forward game has given way to a much more mobile and intelligent approach, whilst still keeping many of the physical attributes that have always been associated with Springbok rugby.

In the half backs, we actually give Australia the edge perhaps to the surprise of some. If you watched the way Genia turned up for the Wallabies in the second round against New Zealand then you’ll understand our bias. The Australian scrum half was utterly outstanding and one of the key components in the Wallabies remarkable turnaround. South Africa’s Ross Cronje is a competent and skilled player, but unlike Genia is still growing into the role at Test level, coupled with a much more conservative approach. Elton Jantjies has been excellent for South Africa this year at fly half, and is clearly the way forward for South Africa in this position as they build to the World Cup, however Bernard Foley is still in our opinion an exceptionally dangerous and fearless player. If he had brought his goalkicking boots with him a fortnight ago, then there would be everything to play for in the third Bledisloe Cup match in October. As readers of this blog know we are big fans of Foley and feel he is one of Australia’s strongest assets, especially as he seems to pop up all over the park, much more so than Jantjies. South Africa have a great platform in their half back partnership, but the sheer experience and unpredictability of the Australian duo give the Wallabies the clear edge here.

In the backs, after what we saw a fortnight ago from Australia, then we hand the contest to Australia. In the centres, Tevita Kuridrani and Kurtley Beale had a huge game for Australia. South Africa’s response in Jan Serfontein and Jesse Kriel make for worthy and exciting opponents, but they’ll be hard pressed to match the physicality of Kuridrani and the X-factor of Beale. On the wings we also think that this is the first real defensive test for South Africa’s Raymond Rhule and Courtnall Skosan, with Australia’s Reece Hodge and Henry Speight providing plenty of explosive and powerful running for Australia to keep the South African pair more than just a little busy. In the fullback position Israel Folau was a constant source of excellence for the Wallabies a fortnight ago in Dunedin, and expect more of the same in Perth. Springbok fullback Andries Coetzee has consistently made us sit up and take notice this year, but he simply hasn’t as yet got the pedigree and experience of Folau, especially when the Australian is on song which at the moment he very much appears to be.

This is going to be a contest of South African forward dominance against the speed, power, and vision of Australia’s backs. For us the key linchpin of this match is going to be at 9 and 10. If Australia, as we suspect, get the upper hand here it will be up to the South African forwards to simply suffocate any creativity that Genia and Foley can conjure up. If neither side has created any kind of dominance on the scoreboard after the first hour, then the game could go either way as a mixed bag in terms of the benches from both sides could make it anybody’s game, with South Africa perhaps having the slight edge. However, despite Genia and company’s genius at times, we still hold that this South African side is the more settled of the two especially from 1-7, and a pair of cool heads at 9 and 10. It’s the combination of the power and mobility of the South African forwards, coupled with some safe play from the Springbok half backs that should ultimately get the better of Australia’s creativity and unpredictability. Either way an epic contest should be in store with South Africa just edging it by two points!

Endnote

We’re including the 1014’s excellent preview of this year’s Rugby Championship on YouTube. As stated after the Lions Tour, we are HUGE fans of the work these two fine gentlemen, Steven and Gareth, are doing. So give them a big thumbs up and subscribe in order to keep this excellent content coming. Well done guys and looking forward to more!

And as always head over to our TV listings page for video highlights if you missed the first two rounds of the tournament:

https://therugbylineout.com/tvinternet-game-listings/

There were thrills aplenty on hand as this year’s Rugby Championship got underway with New Zealand and South Africa having plenty to shout about. Australia meanwhile were left staring into the abyss not helped by the fact that most of their players would have trouble figuring out which letter of the alphabet the word defence starts with let alone spell it. Argentina showed promise but as usual their execution and discipline let them down too many times, as well as the absence of one of last year’s best players, Facundo Isa, was there for all to see.

New Zealand completely destroyed Australia in the first 50 minutes, running in a score of 54-6. However, despite the emphatic scoreline, they will surely be asking themselves some very uncomfortable questions about how they let such a woeful Australian side back into the match with four unanswered tries in the space of 15 minutes, even if the fourth try was marginal at best in terms of a refereeing decision. New Zealand were spectacular in the first 50 minutes by which time they had got the job done. Whether or not they then took their foot off the gas will remain a subject for debate long after this tournament closes. However, All Black Coach Steve Hansen was clearly displeased by their performance in the last quarter of the match as they looked distinctly sloppy at times. Australia were so bad in the first half and New Zealand so unfocused in the final twenty that it was hard to really judge where the All Blacks are at. There were certainly questions raised about New Zealand’s supposed invincibility during the Lions Tour, but the Wallabies in their current shape were not the side to test out whether or not such vulnerabilities had really been addressed. New Zealand will be happy with the win which was emphatic, but concerned about the concentration lapses in the second half. Brilliant in the first 50 minutes, but decidedly average and almost unsure of themselves in the final 30 is not something we’re used to writing about in terms of New Zealand. No doubt many of these questions are likely to be addressed and resolved once and for all this Saturday in Dunedin.

Australia have little if anything to get excited about from the proceedings in Sydney. That first half was one of the worst displays of defensive rugby we have ever had the misfortune of witnessing. Australia did come back in the second half but mainly because New Zealand appeared to rest on their laurels and take the rest of the night off. As many have said Australia’s moments of good fortune in the second half arose from All Black mistakes and individual efforts from Wallaby players, most notably Kurtley Beale, Tevita Kuridrani and Israel Folau. There wasn’t much of a team effort going on, and the sight of All Black flyhalf Beauden Barrett effortlessly ripping a bobbling ball out of the normally steadfast Michael Hooper’s arms was an image that summed up the dark place the Wallabies find themselves in at the moment.

South Africa proved that the form shown in the series against France in June, was continuing to build as they dismantled a strong but ineffective and error strewn Pumas side. The forward effort from South Africa in Port Elizabeth was immense, but despite its physical prowess it showed some real intelligence and ability to create and use space rather than just bash the opposition into submission as in the past. The current Springbok forward pack is exceptionally powerful, fast and highly mobile. On top of that South Africa made mincemeat for the most part out of the much vaunted Pumas scrum while dominating the lineouts and making Argentina’s dangerous second row seem almost nonexistent. The Springbok half back partnership was steadfast and reliable and controlled the game well, while their backs were electric, and the centre partnership of Jesse Kriel and Jan Serfontein made some excellent inroads into a stretched Pumas defence. In short, it was a quality Springbok performance from start to finish. Argentina came to the party make no mistake and the tries by Landajo and Boffelli were a joy to watch, and showed once more that if you allow the Pumas into any kind of space then magic is in the air. However, there is no getting away from the fact that Argentina made far too many errors, and fly half Nicholas Sanchez was clearly way off the boil both in terms of game management and goal kicking. There was plenty of passion from the Pumas but a few key players simply did not have the game their team needed them to have.

Australia face another painful schooling from the All Blacks at the House of Pain in Dunedin this Saturday, while South Africa make the trek to Argentina where they hope to shake off their seeming inability to perform well away from home – something a Pumas side with everything to prove will be keenly aware of.

New Zealand vs Australia
Saturday, August 26
Dunedin

Australia somehow desperately need to prove to the world that the current Wallabies side has the ability to make some inroads at the World Cup in two years time, however, Dunedin and an All Black team keen to answer some niggling questions about their current structure and form, are neither the place or team to do it against. Consequently and sadly for the Wallabies we fully expect Dunedin to live up to its nickname of the House of Pain.

On thing New Zealand are unlikely to lose much sleep over is the battle of the front rows, even without the services of Owen Franks who made such an impact last Saturday in Sydney. Dunedin sees the return of the exceptional Dane Coles at Hooker and the ever reliable Joe Moody continues to man the fort at loosehead prop. The only real question mark is Nepo Laulala at tighthead for the All Blacks. Nevertheless, the Wallaby front row looks so weak by comparison, and Laulala it should be pointed out does have four Test caps to his name already, that we can see little other than complete dominance by New Zealand here. The Australian scrum got pushed around in Sydney last week and with Hooker Stephen Moore’s lineout throwing erratic to say the least, then it is likely to be a long day at the coal face for Australia’s front three with New Zealand benefitting from their pain and suffering. Meanwhile in the second row, despite Wallaby lock Adam Coleman’s best efforts at being one of the few things to be excited about in this Wallaby lineup, New Zealand are likely to walk all over Australia in the shape of the incomparable duo of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick. Retallick in particular was a source of constant misery for the Wallabies last Saturday. We simply don’t rate Rob Simmons for Australia who is clearly light years beyond his sell by date and feel that Coleman is going to have to do the work of two in Dunedin. Australia’s agony is set to continue in the back row as New Zealand’s Liam Squire, who had a blinder of a game last weekend at flanker, and his back row partner Sam Cane take on a completely lacklustre Michael Hooper and Ned Hanigan. As mentioned above the sight of All Black fly half Beauden Barrett ripping the ball at speed out of Hooper’s flailing arms last weekend sums up the Wallabies woes in this part of the field. We don’t think that Australian number eight Sean McMahon is a bad player it’s just that he is simply no match for New Zealand’s Kieran Read, who has a wealth of Test experience and the knowledge it brings behind him. In short the forward aspect of Saturday’s game will be all about the Men in Black.

In the halfbacks we didn’t get too excited about Australia’s performance in Sydney with scrum half Will Genia just not having his customary snap and spark of days gone by, and his replacement Nick Phipps just doesn’t cut it for us. Bernard Foley is a good player but he very rarely if at all, took control of the game in Sydney and despite a reliable boot for goalkicking duties did little to really spark the Wallabies into action. New Zealand’s Aaron Smith and Beauden Barret by comparison were everywhere on Saturday and certainly for the first 50 minutes completely controlled the pace and energy of the game. Smith’s decision-making at scrum half was superb whilst Barrett was a tactical genius as well as wrong footing Wallaby defences on his own all over the park. Both however did seem to take their foot off the gas slightly in the last quarter and TJ Perenara failed to really get New Zealand back into the proceedings after he replaced Smith. Nevertheless when on song as we saw in New Zealand’s first 50 points in Sydney last Saturday, the two New Zealanders are in a league of their own and something Genia and Foley are unlikely to be able to match up to especially away from home. So once again expect New Zealand to be conducting the orchestra in this aspect of the game in Dunedin.

In the backs, New Zealand’s offering was just sublime last Saturday. Winger Rieko Ioane proved he was no flash in the pan, running in two superb tries of his own. While he may not have the brute force of Julian Savea he clearly has a turn of pace and elusiveness that is going to cause him to be a nightmare for defences to read as New Zealand builds towards the World Cup. His opposite number, the veteran Ben Smith put in his traditional vintage performance with a fine try of his own and New Zealand will sorely miss his presence after this match as he takes a sabbatical. Fullback Damian McKenzie embraced his first Test start with vigor and was absolutely outstanding so expect plenty more in the fireworks department from this magician in Dunedin. Centre Ryan Crotty had a huge impact in the match and is clearly one of the best in the business right now. His partner Sonny Bill Williams made an impressive return to the jersey after his Lions red card mishap, however, we were still not convinced he is the way forward for New Zealand in the long-term at centre. Australia meanwhile had little to cheer about especially in defence. Centre Samu Kerevi had a shocker of a game, especially in defence and doesn’t even make the bench this week. There is some hope for Australia as they see the return of Dane Haylett-Petty on the wing, someone who can really provide some spark to Australia’s attack.  Henry Speight looked good on the opposite wing but again was found wanting in defence at times. Coach Michael Cheika is rewarding centres Kurtley Beale and Tevita Kuridrani for their performances last weekend, as they both start, and as individual playmakers they did manage to put some lustre back into Australia’s performance last week. Israel Folau also made an important contribution on his own last weekend and expect more of the same. However, as a group unless these five really gel it is unlikely that despite their individual talents they will be able to change the fundamental problems inherent in Australia’s performance as a team last weekend. In short, New Zealand boast all the class and vision and know how to use it in their offering from 11-15. Australia may have some brilliant individuals but not much of a platform to enable them to perform effectively. New Zealand are likely to be much more focused for the full eighty minutes than in Sydney and dominate the running game at Australia’s expense.

New Zealand’s bench once more looks the stronger of the two and more likely to make an impact, especially with names like Ardie Savea, Anton Lienert-Brown and Codie Taylor in the mix. New Zealand are unlikely to fall asleep at the wheel like they did in Sydney and as a result in front of a passionate crowd in Dunedin, it looks like it is going to be another dominant display from the New Zealanders. The All Blacks at home to run away with it for the full eighty minutes this time by 26 points!

Argentina vs South Africa
Saturday, August 26
Salta

From a Springbok perspective there was a lot to cheer about as a packed Port Elizabeth stadium saw South Africa put in a clinical and effective display against a passionate but ultimately error strewn Pumas side. South Africa are clearly out of the nightmare known as 2016 and a rebuilding process is clearly bearing fruit. They were better organised, infinitely better disciplined and their execution across the park was watertight. When the Pumas managed to click they looked a real threat, the problem was they were only able to do this in short bursts and several of their key players were simply not putting in the kinds of performances we have come to expect. The result is the Argentinian line up sees a brace of changes for this match while South Africa see only one.

The once dominant Argentinian scrum clearly came out worse for wear last weekend in Port Elizabeth against a rock solid Springbok platform. Springbok Hooker Malcolm Marx continues to make the rugby world sit up and take notice and last weekend was no exception. We were very pleasantly surprised by a monumental effort from his two props Coenie Oosthuizen and Tendai Mtawarira.  Mtawarira was immense both in the scrum and with ball in hand and Oosthuizen clearly had the better of his Pumas counterparts. With no change to these three this weekend expect more of the same and even with Ramiro Herrera back alongside Captain Fantastic and Hooker Agustin Creevy for the Pumas we still expect to see the South Americans struggle to contain the Springbok front three. The Pumas duo of Tomas Lavanini and Guido Petti, normally such a threat in the second row, were strangely quiet in Port Elizabeth, so much so that Petti doesn’t even make the bench this weekend in Salta. While Lavanini stays Petti is replaced by another reliable figure in the shape of Matias Alemanno. However, despite the pedigree of these two and on home soil to boot they are still going to be hard pressed to keep South Africa’s Eben Etzebeth and the exceptional Franco Mostert in check. In the back row, Argentina are clearly struggling to find some answers. While Flanker Pablo Matera is a proven commodity he too was strangely quiet last weekend except towards the end of the match, and Leonardo Senatore at number eight was clearly past his best. We like the look of Tomas Lezana but for now he is still too green especially up against the powerhouse that is Jaco Kriel for South Africa. Kriel allied to Siya Kolisi was devastating on Saturday in Port Elizabeth and expect these two to dominate once more for South Africa this Saturday. We liked the look of new Springbok number 8 Uzair Cassiem despite our initial reservations and feel he merits the second consecutive start he has been awarded. Argentina are clearly struggling to find the right fit for their back three with the departure of the exceptional Facundo Isa. Although Manuel Leguizamon comes in for the injured Senatore, doubts remain about his longevity in this Pumas squad despite the considerable presence and solidarity he brings to the squad. South Africa’s forward pack is simply so strong and Argentina’s still clearly a work in progress that even at home we still expect to see the Springboks dominate the contest here.

At fly half we have to confess to being very disappointed in Puma fly half Nicholas Sanchez’s performance last weekend. Normally the Argentine 10 is a reliable source of points and a boot to put his team into space. Neither really happened much at all last weekend, and is surely a concern for the Pumas. This week sees Sanchez move to the bench and veteran Juan Martin ‘the Magician’ Hernandez take over the number 10 shirt. When this player is on form he really can do something special for his team, but like many of his countrymen he has good days and bad days. Scrum half Martin Landajo despite a try that showed off some dazzling footballing skills, finds himself on the bench and the slightly more conservative Tomas Cubelli take his place. Cubelli seems to have a calmer head under pressure than Landajo despite not being nearly as impressive with ball in hand. South Africa make one change as the injured scrum half Ross Cronje makes way for Francois Hougaard. We still reserve judgement on Hougaard, although he makes quick decisions they are not always the smartest and feel under pressure Cubelli could actually have the edge over the South African here. Elton Jantjies was solid last weekend and expect more of the same but has yet to be in a winning Springbok side on the road. Consequently we actually hand the Argentines the battle of the halfbacks in Salta, especially given the benches in this area of the game.

Get their execution right and we still hold that the Pumas set of backs is more than a match for their Springbok counterparts especially on home soil. Winger Emiliano Boffelli had a good game last weekend in Port Elizabeth, our only criticism being some soft defence on the Springbok try by Raymond Rhule. On home ground we still hold that the Argentine centres and wingers are bigger, meaner and faster, especially in space, than their Springbok counterparts. This is in no disrespect to the Springboks especially the centre pairing of Jan Serfontein and Jesse Kriel which clearly got the better of the perceived advantage we feel the Pumas have in this part of the park last weekend. Add to that the Springbok pair being much better at hanging on to the ball and able to go to ground when needed. However, despite some real razzle dazzle from Springbok wingers Raymond Rhule and Courtnall Skosan who both scored excellent tries last weekend, questions still remain for us about their defensive capabilities especially when matched up against the size of their Argentine counterparts. We have to admit to being pleasantly surprised at some strong tackling from Rhule at times last weekend, but until we see the results of this weekend, the jury is still out for us on the Springbok pair, especially as away from home they are going to be put under immense pressure from this Pumas back line. At fullback it’s an even contest between the excellent Andries Coetzee for South Africa and Joaquin Tuculet for the Pumas. Tuculet looked fantastic with ball in hand at times last Saturday and expect more of the same, but then so did Coetzee allied to some superb defence to the point we actually rate the Springbok slightly higher of the two. Although we feel that the Pumas set of backs could really turn this game upside down in Salta on Saturday, we can’t help feeling that this all dominant Springbok pack will effectively smother any chance the Pumas have to cut their backs loose especially if last weekend’s performance was anything to go by.

Once more we feel that Argentina, especially at home, has the match clinching bench. If the Pumas are in it with a points difference of a converted try or less going into the last 15 minutes, then at home this Pumas bench could swing the match Argentina’s way as a group of relatively untested Springbok replacements struggle to find their footing under pressure and away from home. However, the problem is we just can’t see the starting Springbok XV let the match get to this point. Consequently it is likely to be a lot tougher contest than the match in Port Elizabeth but South Africa should get over their notoriously poor performances on the road of last year and seal a tight and fiercely contested match by 3 points! Argentina will have everything to prove and South Africa will have their first truly nail biting test of character of 2017.

Endnote

We’re including the 1014’s excellent preview of this year’s Rugby Championship on YouTube. As stated after the Lions Tour, we are HUGE fans of the work these two fine gentlemen, Steven and Gareth, are doing. So give them a big thumbs up and subscribe in order to keep this excellent content coming. Well done guys and looking forward to more!