It’s been a fascinating month of Test Rugby which has been highly informative in terms of what it has told us about depth, especially in terms of the Northern Hemisphere teams, with perhaps Scotland being the biggest surprise package of the month. We’ll be doing our Annual Report Cards on all the big teams starting next week and leading up to Christmas, but for now there is one more final order of business in the November Test Calendar to deal with, this Saturday’s match between Wales and South Africa in Cardiff.
Both sides need a win here in no uncertain terms. South Africa have laboured through 2017 much as they did in 2016, with Coach Alastair Coetzee’s head seeming to be on the chopping block whatever the outcome of Saturday’s match. Despite the euphoria of the clean sweep against a fractured and disinterested French side in June, the Springboks had a woeful Rugby Championship with the record losses to the All Blacks and Ireland this year being the low points of yet another season to forget. There were brief moments of respite as witnessed in the second Test against the All Blacks in Cape Town, but to be honest that’s been about the only performance to cheer about this year from a Springbok perspective. This end of year tour has highlighted a tired and disillusioned team out of touch with their Coaching staff. Their two victories against France and Italy on this tour were joyless affairs which saw them simply batter weak opposition sides into submission. Just like this time last year the Springboks clearly want this season to end, and return home and hope that some direction will be given to South African rugby between now and when Super Rugby gets underway again in February.
Wales too have had a mixed bag of results in 2017, but none which have really left us with the impression that this is a team on the way to bigger and better things. A Six Nations campaign which should have delivered so much more, despite impressive wins against Ireland and running England close, left us with more questions than answers in terms of the kind of direction Wales was trying to take. While some Welsh players, particularly Jonathan Davies, really stood out on this year’s Lions Tour to New Zealand, it’s been an indifferent November Test series with Wales coming short when it really mattered. A poor performance against Australia highlighted how much the new talent that Wales have put through their paces this month still need to learn at Test level. This was followed by perhaps one of the most dismal Tests of the year to date, as Wales laboured past a very physical and determined Georgian side in a performance that looked woefully unconvincing. Their Test last weekend against New Zealand was clearly a step up, and there were many positives that Wales could take out of the game, but the defensive frailties of the youngsters in the squad was there for all to see. Wales clearly have some talent to work with at the moment, but much like in the Six Nations it is simply not working as a cohesive unit with any degree of consistency. However, the same could be said of South Africa, making this weekend’s contest very difficult to call.
So without any further ado here’s our preview of the matchups on the pitch this Saturday in Cardiff.
Wales vs South Africa
Saturday, December 2nd
It’s hard to say who needs the win here more, South Africa or Wales. For South Africa it has been such a dismal year with another set of management changes on the cards seemingly inevitable. As a result their motivation and unity may be questionable after another turbulent twelve months. As a result one could argue that Wales are the more motivated side needing to lay down a marker in front of a home crowd as they head into the Six Nations after a season of mixed fortunes.
In the front rows, despite the presence of prop Rob Evans for Wales, we think that South Africa should still have the edge here. Wales may learn much about depth through the performance of hooker Kristian Dacey and prop Scott Andrews, but for us the far more dangerous unit is South Africa. Malcolm Marx at Hooker has still for us been one of the players of the year and when he plays from the heart as seen in the second Test against the All Blacks, he is capable of a legendary performance. Stephen Kitshoff is an exceptionally dangerous prop and is no stranger to the try line, while Wilco Louw could be the answer to South Africa’s problems at tighthead in the absence of Coenie Oosthuizen.
In the second rows, we also feel that the sheer brute force South Africa possess in the shape of Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager should also prove too much for Wales, much as it did for France and Italy, despite the presence of Welsh talisman Alun-Wyn Jones. Expect the South Africans to simply wear down Wales in this part of the park.
In the back rows, we feel the contest suddenly evens out. One of the standout players of last weekend’s Test between Wales and New Zealand, was Welsh flanker Josh Navidi who had a barnstormer of a game. He put in an exemplary 80 minute performance and caused the New Zealand defences continuous problems until the final whistle. We also liked the look of his partner Aaron Shingler and Welsh number eight Taulupe Faletau once more proved his intrinsic value to this Welsh side. This is likely to be the most intense battle on the park as the Welsh three go up against an equally accomplished Springbok trio in the shape of Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, and the promising Daniel Du Preez. However, the fact that Kolisi is fresh off the plane after returning home briefly for the birth of his child and Du Preez’s lack of Test experience could make for slightly less cohesion in the South African unit, leading us to give the edge to Wales in a tight contest.
In the half backs matchup, we feel that on paper South Africa should be better placed to run proceedings on Saturday. After a long absence from the Springbok fold, fly half Handre Pollard seems to be coming back into his own and there is no question that he has talent to burn. While he may not exactly be setting pitches alight this year, scrum half Ross Cronje has been a reliable figure for the Springboks and consequently we feel that the South African unit is likely to be less susceptible to mistakes than the untried Welsh offering of Test veteran Dan Biggar at fly half and newcomer Aled Davies at scrum half. Provided South Africa don’t resort to aimlessly kicking away possession, which they seem to do under pressure, they should have the upper hand here on Saturday.
In the backs, though we feel provided the Welsh Coaching staff have attended to the defensive frailties seen in the Welsh young bloods so far this month, Wales have more of the X-factor in this part of the park going into Saturday’s Test. One of the most interesting contests this weekend will be between Welsh winger Hallam Amos and his Springbok opposite number Warrick Gelant who, after turning heads in this year’s Currie Cup, finally gets a long overdue callup to the Sprinbok starting XV. Despite some defensive mistakes, winger Hallam Amos has consistently made us sit up and take notice this month and there is no question he is an exciting prospect for Wales’ Six Nations and World Cup ambitions. On the opposite wing Steff Evans has lived up to the hype surrounding his inclusion in the Welsh squad but, particularly from a defensive standpoint, he has shown that it is a very big step up from the PRO 14 arena to the Test level circuit, and one he clearly still needs to grow into. Dillyn Leyds despite a bright start this year has gone strangely quiet in recent outings and it remains to be seen what kind of performance South Africa get out of him on Saturday. In the centres Francois Venter has impressed this month, while Jesse Kriel has failed to gain the headlines in any shape or form this year. He hasn’t exactly been a bad player, but by the same token is not one you would notice should his name not be on the team sheet. The same could be said of the Welsh offering, as we have liked what we’ve seen from Scott Williams but newcomer Hadleigh Parkes is very much an untried commodity at this level. Lastly, the wise head of Leigh Halfpenny at fullback for Wales meets the youthful exuberance of Andries Coetzee for the Springboks. Halfpenny seems to have come back into his own since his return to Wales, and he seems to be having a much greater impact on the Welsh attack. Coetzee has been a player who has consistently given his all to the Springbok cause this year, even if the team seems unsure of how to make the most of his work rate. Given the speed of the Welsh youngsters on attack and with the wisdom of Halfpenny behind them, we hand the contest in this part of the park to a Welsh side keen to lay down some markers for the future.
This should be an intensely physical contest and hopefully a fitting end to the 2017 Test calendar, especially if both sides look to run the ball and really test each other’s defences out wide. If South Africa resort to the kind of slugfest we saw against France and Italy this could end up diminishing the quality of what should be a good contest as they simply attempt to batter Wales into submission. However we feel that Wales in front of a home crowd, have enough speed and pace in the backs coupled to a hungry back row that they should just squeak a much-needed win to close out a troubled season with a positive statement of intent for 2018. As a result we give this to Wales by four points!
As always we end with some very solid content from the 1014’s review of last weekend’s action, and continue to thoroughly enjoy the vast body of work, especially in terms of detailed analysis that these two fine gentlemen, Steve and Gareth, are putting out. These two reviews give some valuable insights into where South Africa and Wales are at in terms of heading into this weekend’s Test, as well as some excellent feedback on the other teams and how they performed. For some in-depth understanding of who’s who in the pot when it comes to Test Rugby and the buildup to the World Cup you can’t go wrong having a look at some of their excellent work. Enjoy, give them a big thumbs up and make sure you subscribe to keep this excellent content coming!