Canada and the USA kick off exceptionally challenging World Cup campaigns tomorrow. Canada get their journey in what is essentially the “Pool of no Hope” underway, while the USA commence operations in the “Pool of Death”. In short both teams have the unenviable task of collectively facing up to five of the best teams in the world.
In Canada’s case, New Zealand and South Africa are so beyond them in terms of skill levels at the moment that one is almost scared to watch. Although they managed to give Italy one hell of a scare at the last World Cup, given Canada’s form of late, it’s hard to imagine a repeat performance on the same scale. That leaves a possible consolation win against Namibia as the best that Canada can realistically look forward to, and even that could be a challenge.
For the USA, they start their World Cup journey against a menacing looking English side, widely tipped by many to top Pool C and ultimately have a shot at lifting the tournament’s silverware. If that wasn’t challenging enough the Eagles then have to face France and follow it up with Argentina. You could not ask for three tougher back to back matches at World Cup intensity. While it’s difficult to realistically see the Eagles getting past any of these three heavyweights, even mercurial France, you’d have to argue that they are in a better position than Canada at having an outside chance of causing an upset. With France prone to massive concentration lapses come World Cup, the USA may find les Bleus their biggest potential wild card. Although France beat Argentina by the narrowest of margins at the start of this tournament, and in our opinion some help from the officials, they seem incapable of playing a solid game of two halves at the moment. Argentina on the other hand got better as the match progressed. England would appear to be in a league of their own in terms of Pool C, so it is likely that the USA is targeting a performance tomorrow more than a result. Put in two good games against France and Argentina and then Tonga should be theirs for the taking.
The growth of professional rugby in North America through Major League Rugby is clearly starting to pay dividends, as the shock win for Uruguay today over Fiji showed. With many of the Uruguayan team plying their trade in the MLR, and for Canadian fans two players in the Toronto Arrows, the evidence was there for all to see as there were several standout performances from MLR based players. While it still may be a stretch for Canada or the USA to take down any of the six big guns they will be facing this World Cup, the boost to rugby in North America and the continued expansion of the MLR would be enormous were they to do so.
Italy vs Canada – Thursday, September 26th – Fukuoka
This match in the last World Cup provided the 2015 tournament with one of its most memorable tries, as Canadian winger DTH van der Merwe produced a mesmerizing display of footwork and ball handling skills. In case you’ve forgotten cast your minds back to this.
This will probably be the legendary Canadian winger’s last World Cup, but we can only hope that he still has a few more vintage moments like this left up his sleeve over the next three weeks. Sadly though the rest of his team have struggled to match up since the last World Cup, and even DTH himself has been ominously quiet in the red jersey for much of the four year period leading up to tomorrow.
Canada has struggled plain and simple since the last World Cup and now find themselves ranked 22nd in the world and if things don’t start to improve soon, could find themselves skirting the borders of becoming a Tier 3 nation. We’re still quite a ways from that, though the dizzying fall of Canadian rugby from being ranked 12th in the world at the start of the 2011 World Cup, to their current position of 22 makes for depressing reading. As to what’s gone wrong, there are a myriad of reasons, but gone wrong it has and given the rather daunting Pool Canada find themselves in this year, one has to wonder what further damage will be done to a country whose rugby identity seems in tatters.
Italy will be a tough call tomorrow, and unlikely to be such an opportunity for an upset as they were four years ago. While Italy themselves have failed to really progress beyond being Six Nations wooden spoon holders, the point is they still compete in such competitions as well as having the opportunity to face the big Southern Hemisphere sides every year in November. They have even claimed the odd big scalp such as South Africa, France and Argentina, something it would seem Canada can only dream about at present. Canada will bring plenty of passion and heart to proceedings tomorrow, but whether or not it will be enough to unseat a side to determined to finish with nothing less than third place in their Pool is questionable. Watch the above video again though and you can’t blame Canada for thinking big.
As Canada’s only outside chance at a big upset, we once again scratched our heads over the selection for this one
Let’s be completely honest, the chance of Canada in its present condition upsetting New Zealand or South Africa’s apple cart is such a pipe dream it’s sadly laughable. Surely an upset against Italy and a win over Namibia, thus potentially securing them a third place finish in the Pool and automatic qualification for the next World Cup, given their struggle to qualify for this one would have been the goal. Consequently, you would have thought the selectors would have placed all the emphasis on this match as Canada’s number one priority. Agreed one doesn’t want to completely lose face against New Zealand and South Africa, but the bigger picture should surely have been the priority. While we accept that the loss of Evan Olmstead and Taylor Paris have no doubt forced the selectors hand somewhat, we still remain somewhat baffled. In truth it’s only in the back row and on the wings, where we feel Canada will be truly competitive on Thursday. For the rest of it, well we may be surprised but we’re not holding our breath. Italy on the other hand appear to be taking no chances and field a squad that has proved themselves at European club level as well as catching the eye at times during the Six Nations.
Canada’s back row – something to get excited about
While we took one look at Italy’s back row offering for this match and almost recoiled in horror as it boasts some very frightening characters, Canada should also be able to provide plenty of heart and all out grit here to try and counter it. As regular readers of this blog know, we are huge fans of Toronto Arrows stalwart Mike Sheppard who finds himself moved from the second row to the back for this match. However, his work rate is off the charts and never say die attitude will be an enormous talisman to Canada tomorrow. Tyler Ardron has been hands down Canada’s best player of 2019, and Lucas Rumball appears to have recovered from the injury that saw him miss much of the Toronto Arrows MLR campaign. It may not be the world’s flashiest back row but it is one that can definitely muscle up to the likes of Sebastien Negri, Jake Polledri and Braam Steyn, even if the Italian trio are the more fancied unit. The three Canadians will put their bodies on the line and then some tomorrow and expect plenty of heroics from the Canuck trio.
Canada’s half back combination really needs to click tomorrow and hasn’t shown much evidence of it so far
We won’t say much about the choice of the rather pedestrian scrum half Gordon McRorie for this match, since we’ve said enough already on that score this year. However, he and Irish import Peter Nelson don’t appear to complement each other, and up against a very composed high energy Italian unit, we feel Canada is going to struggle tomorrow. Jamie Mackenzie makes the bench as scrum half cover, and we’d prefer to see him on sooner rather than later tomorrow, as Italy’s bench offerings for both positions will continue to provide pace and accuracy.
Canada may have DTH but Italy have Matteo Minozzi
Agreed DTH van der Merwe plays on the wing and Minozzi at fullback, but whatever DTH can do so can Minozzi and probably more at this stage. The electric Italian fullback really lit up the 2018 Six Nations for Italy and was one of the players of the tournament, but injury left him sidelined for a year. He appeared to be spooling up nicely against Namibia last week and Canada are going to have to watch him like a hawk, as just like DTH he is absolutely lethal given any kind of space. Tommaso Benvenuti against the legendary Canadian winger should also be a tasty match up, backed up by a bruising and highly mobile Italian centre unit. If Canada make the mistake of relying too heavily on DTH to get them out of jail or work miracles, as they tend to do all too often, Canada could be in for a long afternoon.
Verdict
This may have been one of the great matches of the 2015 World Cup Pool Stages, but we fear this edition may not have quite the same luster. If Canada are to reverse their seemingly inevitable slide into the abyss of Tier 3 rugby then arguably this is their biggest match of this World Cup, yet we can’t help feeling that they are heading into it with one hand tied behind their back. We sincerely hope it is not the case and we will have plenty of egg to wipe off our face tomorrow morning, but we simply can’t get the tea leaves to arrange themselves with any great degree of optimism. A tough encounter in which, as they always do, Canada will put up a brave fight, but which the Azurri will comfortably take by 21 points!
England vs USA – Thursday, September 26th – Kobe
If the USA are to make a statement that they are genuinely an emerging rugby power, and that the growth of a professional league in North America is strengthening that contention, then perhaps more than any other tomorrow’s match against England will be the proof, irrespective of the fact that an upset is not really on the cards. If the USA are able to make England question themselves to a greater degree than Tonga did, and on the basis of that go on to score an upset over Argentina or France, then the argument that American rugby has come of age will be hard to dispute. They certainly have the squad to do it tomorrow with a good mix of players plying their trade in Europe and the MLR.
England bring their usual powerhouse squad, and know that they may be facing a side very keen to make a point. England perhaps underestimated Tonga at their peril in their World Cup opener and at times seemed off the mark. However, they still ultimately kept Tonga comfortably at bay and perhaps most telling of all not a single Tongan crossed the English whitewash. The USA might be able to match it up front with England relatively well tomorrow but we’re not convinced their backs are of equal caliber. England will want an emphatic victory over a challenging opponent tomorrow that pushes them hard in preparation for their crucial encounters with France and Argentina – we think in the shape of the Eagles they may well get it.
You might end up seeing the name John Quill a lot in this tournament
If the niggling injuries that have haunted the big American back rower don’t come back to haunt him this World Cup, then Quill could be one of the Eagles big breakout players this tournament. We’ve been particularly impressed with his antics in the MLR with Rugby United New York this season, and he couldn’t ask for a better test of his mettle in the shape of England’s Tom Curry. Curry is arguably one of England’s most important players, and in our opinion an English Captain in waiting for the next tournament in 2023. If Quill can match up to him, then the USA have a genuine big match talent for this World Cup. With Quill ably assisted by another of the USA’s headline grabbing players, number 8 Cam Dolan, expect some fireworks in this part of the park from the Americans, even up against the likes of Curry, Billy Vunipola and Mark Wilson.
Another benchmark of how far the USA has come will be the contest between AJ MacGinty and England’s George Ford
The USA’s Irish import brings some real pedigree to the Eagles. He is already a well recognized facet of the English Premiership in his regular exploits with Sale Sharks, but MacGinty is a talent that the USA holds dear to its plans for this World Cup. If MacGinty can run the game for the Americans to the degree where his opposite number George Ford is unable to really carve out a genuine advantage for England, then the Americans could definitely rattle the English. As we have seen on numerous occasions this year when England, and Ford in particular are spooked, they tend to unravel slightly. When he is on form there is no denying that MacGinty is capable of pulling it off, and the Eagles will be placing a great deal of trust in their play maker tomorrow. If MacGinty can keep them in it and force Ford’s hand, then the Eagles will certainly be able to keep the English on their toes. Owen Farrell will ultimately be there for England to restore order should MacGinty become too problematic, but expect the American play maker to make life difficult at times for England, and punish them with the boot for any disciplinary infractions.
At the end of the day though it’s that English set of backs that will really test how far the Eagles have come in the last four years
The Americans may be courageous and play with plenty of heart in this part of the park, but we have trouble seeing them really containing the likes of Piers Francis, Joe Cokanasiga, Jamie Joseph and Anthony Watson. Despite some feeling that Elliot Daly shouldn’t be England’s first choice fullback we beg to differ. Sure he makes the odd mistake but in general he is a pretty reliable and capable backstop for England with a rather handy boot. Our one over riding impression of MLR rugby is that while there may be lots of tries by the league’s backs they emanate from generally poor back line defense. A trait which the Americans may end up paying heavily for tomorrow. While their forwards may be able to grunt it out with England, defensively we feel they may struggle to contain England at the back.
Verdict
While we don’t feel this is a match that’s too hard to call, we do feel that it could well be one of the most interesting of the Pool Stages. A big brash rugby nation desperate to prove that it is a growing force to be reckoned with, up against the game’s traditional order. While the Eagles will clearly want to cause the upset of the century, a solid performance against England that sees them remain competitive with the Men in White till the final whistle will be more important than the result. If they do manage that then they will make a big statement about where Rugby in the US is headed. England should anticipate a Test match that will be excellent preparation for their must win encounters with France and Argentina, but one which they should ultimately emerge comfortable winners by 18 points!
The Lineout 