Posts Tagged ‘Japan’

While it may be hard to top events on Saturday, these two quarter-finals will provide plenty of drama, and certainly in the case of Japan an expectant host nation will watch to see if their heroes can make this tournament one where dreams really do come true. The form books may be even less kind to the two underdogs, Japan and France than it will be to Saturday’s wild cards Ireland and Australia, but in many ways that makes these contests all the more fascinating. Japan have shown the world that this is a special team that still may have some surprises up their sleeves and who are not short on belief. Meanwhile France have shown flashes of brilliance that still lead us to believe that we haven’t yet seen their traditional big game in a World Cup yet, 2015 being the only notable exception to that trend where there weren’t any.

The favorites for Sunday’s encounters Wales and South Africa, do enter this stage of the competition with a certain degree of confident swagger that is well justified. Wales have looked the part from day one, and despite being clearly rattled at times by Fiji they still managed to produce arguably one of the best games of the pool stages in their thriller against Australia. Wales look the part and a have a quiet air of assurance about them that France will struggle to deal with. Wales have got the basics right and it is a tight and well drilled unit that is fully conversant with their roles as a group and as individuals within it.

South Africa may have come short against New Zealand in their opening match, but they put up one hell of a fight in the process, and the All Blacks were left in no doubt that they had just experienced a “genuine Test match” of the highest order. South Africa then went on to dispatch the rest of their Pool B opponents with relative ease, though like New Zealand were not overly challenged in the process, something that Japan will have an edge over them in as they have had to fight tooth and nail for all four of their Pool wins. Then there’s the small matter of the “Brighton ghosts”. South Africa will be out for revenge and the 2019 edition of the the Springboks is dramatically different to that which Japan encountered four years ago. Better coached and with a raft of players who can match the raw energy and excitement levels that Japan offers, South Africa are a different beast in 2019 and justifiably have their eyes set on the main prize.

So here’s what got us talking in relation to Sunday’s proceedings.

Wales vs France – Sunday, October 20th – Oita

These two sides have an interesting history in that the result is never a given between them, no matter what the form book says. France invariably give Wales a game to think about, and in recent years have posed the Men in Red with some serious questions come half time. Wales however do seem to be better at reinventing themselves against France in the final forty minutes, while France struggle to understand that what was working for the first forty has clearly been found out and undone by the Welsh. Herein lies France’s biggest problem of the last four years – they simply aren’t an eighty minute team. Wales on the other hand are and if anything tend to play their best rugby in the final forty minutes.

Wales have looked composed even under adversity such as against Australia and Fiji this tournament, and that Welsh defense just gets better and better as the clock winds up to the final whistle. One thing it seems you can’t do against the Welsh is wear them down, as if anything they become more resolute and impervious to the effects of fatigue as the the full time whistle approaches. If you’re going to catch Wales napping, you’ve essentially got to do it in the first twenty minutes and then spend the rest of your game keeping them at bay and not allowing them to return the compliment.

France on the other hand have, much like Australia, got the job done but not looked overly flash in the process. Sure their opening game against Argentina showed off some outstanding attacking skills, particularly through center Damian Penaud, but they got an almighty fright in the second half and in all honesty were lucky to win that match. While they comfortably dispatched a plucky USA side, they almost came horribly unstuck against Tonga, and were spared the potential embarrassment of having to face England courtesy of Typhoon Hagibis. In short, most people have written France off in this tournament, but to use the well worn cliche that is when they are at their most dangerous.

Welsh resolve is at its most convincing in Alun-Wyn Jones and Justin Tipuric – something France simply don’t have

If you ever wanted an analogy between Rugby and Marvel Super Hero comics then look no further than Wales. Welsh Captain Alun-Wyn Jones and flanker Justin Tipuric could easily move to Hollywood after this World Cup and take roles as Thor and Ironman in the next Marvel blockbuster. These two characters are completely indestructible and can be depended on to pull their team from the brink of disaster consistently for eighty minutes. In short, you can’t and will not break them. In France’s offerings we see none of the same qualities, despite Captain Guilhem Guirado’s inspirational leadership and complete disregard for his own safety. Not only are Jones and Tipuric extraordinarily skilled players in their own right, their on field heroics are such a key part of providing motivation to the rest of this Welsh squad, that in our opinion they are Wales’ two most important players.

We have trouble seeing France gain much in the way of parity in any of the forward battles

France have some quality players in their forward pack make no mistake. Hooker and Captain Guilhem Guirado and number eight Louis Picamoles are world class through and through and there is some genuinely promising talent in the likes of second rower Bernard le Roux and back rowers Gregory Alldritt, Wenceslas Lauret and Charles Ollivon. However, as a unit we struggle to see them matching up to a capable Welsh second row and back row that has been rock solid and highly dynamic so far in this tournament. The essential difference in the two sides is this Welsh pack plays as a finely tuned unit whereas France play as an eclectic collection of brilliant individuals. Without any kind of cohesive forward dominance France will struggle to unleash the mercurial talents of world class backs like Gael Fickou, Damian Penaud and Virimi Vakatawa.

While he’s often had his critics there is no doubt that Dan Biggar has got better and better this year and has ultimately negated the loss of Gareth Anscombe, while Rhys Patchell has been a noteworthy understudy

The loss of Gareth Anscombe prior to the tournament caused a genuine stir amongst Welsh supporters and we felt some rather unjustified criticisms leveled at Dan Biggar his replacement. We’ve always held Biggar in high regard and when he is on song, which he has been this tournament, there are few who can better him in terms of reliability. Furthermore, Rhys Patchell has really risen to the occasion as Biggar and Anscombe’s understudy. In short, despite the cries of alarm prior to the World Cup, we’d argue that Wales are in exceptionally rude health at fly half.

The most entertaining contest on the park on Sunday – the battle of the scrum halves

Both France and Wales arrive in Oita with a full deck in the scrum half department. Gareth Davies for Wales and Antoine Dupont for France are excitement machines through and through, and the kind of players who in the blink of an eye can change the momentum of the game in their side’s favor. Davies excels at being the intercept king while Dupont’s eye for opportunity and some searing breaks that suddenly open up an entire pitch are becoming the stuff of legends. Expect both sides to monitor their opposition nines with the utmost of vigilance. There are also some very handy replacements for both sides on the bench, though we’d argue that France’s Baptiste Serin has yet to really hit his stride in the tournament and had an absolute shocker against Tonga.

Remember this guy?

No not number 7, the great Olivier Magne, but number 14 Philippe Bernat-Salles and the try that rang around the world in the 1999 Rugby World Cup, as France who had essentially been written off, knocked the highly vaunted All Blacks out of the tournament in the semi-finals. Well we think his successor in the number 14 jersey for Sunday, Damian Penaud has all the same qualities if not more. For us he is the embodiment of those exciting French backs of yesteryear, and if Wales give him just a sniff of space then you could well end up seeing a repeat of 1999. On the big stage it will be the biggest Test his opposite Welsh number, youngster Josh Adams, has had to date in what is turning out to be an equally promising career.

Verdict

Despite rumors circulating in the press that dissension within the French camp is rife, one shouldn’t read to much into it, as France being France there is always some sort of sideshow going on. Despite all of this France somehow always manage to come to the party for the big moments at World Cup time, even if 2015 was an exception to the rule. There is still enough raw talent in this French squad to upset the best laid plans of the top sides. Wales though simply look too polished to really allow the form books to be tossed out the window. There still seems to be the fundamental disconnect between the French coaching staff and the players and that is what undid them in 2015 and history certainly looks set to repeat itself this year. It still should be an interesting and entertaining match spiced with the “what if France shows up” perennial question. For us though Wales look like the finished product and are still the contenders and dark horse to lift the trophy they were when they headed into the tournament. As a result we’re handing this to Wales by sixteen points!

Japan vs South Africa – Sunday, October 20th – Tokyo

As much as we love the underdog here at the Lineout, we have to admit we really didn’t see this coming. Japan’s success in this tournament has been a glorious advertisement for the game globally and we have thoroughly enjoyed watching the Brave Blossoms extraordinary journey to this point. And brave they certainly have been, in slaying the Irish tiger and the Scottish lion. What’s next for this extraordinary band of rugby players buoyed on by 126 million ecstatic Japanese? To say that they have exceeded their country’s expectations and got every neutral rugby fan across the globe onto their bandwagon for the ride is an understatement, making Sunday’s match up with South Africa’s Springboks one of the most eagerly anticipated fixtures in the tournament’s history.

South Africa, apart from their initial do or die tussle with New Zealand at the start of the tournament have had a much easier ride to Sunday’s quarter final than the hosts. One thing they may well be wary of though is the fact that the last match they played against a brave Canadian side was almost two weeks ago. Having to sit around and watch the country you’re in go ballistic for the team you are to face in the quarter finals, without any game time under your belt in the process must have been slightly disquieting no matter how professional your setup is. How much will nerves ultimately play a part in Sunday’s proceedings as the Springboks will have had to watch all the momentum favor their opponents heading into the match. The flip side of that coin is that with all the attention on Japan, the Springboks have been allowed to go about their business quietly out of the spotlight, and in terms of pressure then that is all on Japan.

Can Japan really out muscle a Springbok tight five that takes physicality to a level that they just haven’t encountered yet?

Ireland were off the boil physically against Japan, so although they had the edge on paper they failed to make it count. Scotland were simply at sixes and sevens for too much of the match as a superbly drilled Japanese unit from a technical point of view got the better of them. We don’t feel that will be the case on Sunday, as South Africa pack a formidable front row with an equally capable unit on the bench. Although Japanese Hooker Shota Horie has been outstanding he will meet his match in Bongi Mbonambi and Malcolm Marx. Meanwhile Eben Etzebeth in particular will bring an edge and physicality to the engine room in the second row and the lineout that Japan will struggle to contend with, and expect to see their discipline suffer as a result. And when you’ve got the destructive forces of Franco Mostert and RG Snyman (with the latter simply being able to terrify opposition defenses on the basis of looks alone) waiting on the bench to add further fuel to the fire, we can’t help feeling Japan could well unravel here on Sunday.

In the back row Japan have looked strong but South Africa is one of the best in the business

That Japanese back row of Michael Leitch, South African import Lappies Labuschagne and Kazuki Himeno has been one of the revelations of the tournament, but we struggle to see it competing for a full eighty minutes with an intensely physical South African unit. As regular readers know we consider South Africa’s Pieter-Steph du Toit to be one of the best loose forwards in the world, and he just gets better and better with every outing. Japan will be intensely competitive here make no mistake and with Leitch probably dominating the motivational speeches and selflessly putting his body on the line for the jersey, South Africa will get a challenge here make no mistake but we doubt it will be strong enough to negate the South African threat for a full eighty minutes.

There’s nothing like experience at the highest level and at the pivot points South Africa clearly has the edge

Japan’s halfback pairing has impressed make no mistake this tournament, but we feel it will be hard pressed to match South Africa’s big match temperament in the shape of Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard. Pollard has been good with the boot and a reliable kicker and de Klerk is the devastating live wire he excels at being. The one thing the Japanese pair do have going for them is speed and precision, qualities that they have consistently delivered on this tournament, especially scrum half Yutaka Nagare. Despite some of the cricket score results in the tournament so far by the bigger sides, Japanese fly half Yu Tamara finds himself heading into this match as the competition’s leading points scorer, meaning that if nothing else he will keep South Africa honest with the boot if their physicality becomes overly exuberant in the eyes of referee Wayne Barnes. Nevertheless, South Africa have so much proven talent in these key positions, especially with new sensation Herschel Jantjies on the bench, that ultimately South Africa should find themselves running proceedings with ease. However, as a caveat this Japanese side went up against one of the best half back pairings in the world in the shape of Ireland’s Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray and clearly got the better of them – so anything could happen on the day!

Japan can do this but South Africa can also do this!

You have to admit that is some pretty compelling viewing from both sides! That Japanese try against Scotland shows some offloading skills that simply defy belief, and we here at the Lineout would dearly love to see this become the new norm in Test rugby, as it certainly is easy on the eyes. Then again so is pint-sized South African winger Cheslin Kolbe’s running game. Expect Kolbe to be one of THE players of the tournament once it is done and dusted and to receive the same kind of accolades and respect from teams that the late great Jonah Lomu of New Zealand received. What is perhaps even more impressive about Kolbe is his ability to bring down giant second rowers – in short if you want commitment from a player then look no further than this mini version of Jonah Lomu. Along with Justin Tipuric and Alun-Wyn Jones from Wales there is clearly a role for the South African in the next Marvel Action Heroes film.

Much talk of the Brighton ghosts has been made leading up to this match, but in reality the two scenarios couldn’t be more different

There is no doubt that South Africa will have this at the back of their mind. Sure they played a warm up match against Japan in Kumagaya a week before the tournament started, and thrashed the hosts comprehensively. However, that is all it was – a warm up game and the Japan we have seen in this tournament has grown into a very different beast. By the same token though South Africa are almost unrecognizable from the shambolic outfit that ended the 2017 season (one of the worst in their proud history), and unlike the last World Cup there has been a much more consistent approach to and preparation for the global showdown. South Africa have done their homework and look the part, whereas the 2015 World Cup Springbok side did not, and instead looked a disjointed mess for much of the tournament. Japan also did not have the weight of expectation on their shoulders in Brighton that they will have in Tokyo on Sunday. This will be the biggest game of Japan’s rugby history and as good as this side may be, we fear that with little collective experience of these kinds of occasions it may all prove too much for them. They have been marvelous hosts and their team has done their country proud and been a credit to the sport as a whole, but it has had an almost fairy tale like tinge to it. Whether or not the carriage will turn into a pumpkin on Sunday at midnight remains to be seen, but there is no denying they and the rest of the world have thoroughly enjoyed the ride!

Verdict

We don’t for a minute think that this will be the one-sided blowout in favor of South Africa that many are predicting. We do believe, albeit with a genuine sense of regret, that the party has to end some time for Japan, and this will likely be their last waltz at the tournament. However, we think that the spirit that has characterized this exceptional side will come to the fore, and allied to some world class skills, Japan will be a difficult nut for South Africa to crack. But crack it will under the sheer physical force of a Springbok onslaught for eighty minutes. Japan does have the talent to spring one more shock of the century, and as a result another entry in the history books is not completely beyond the realms of possibility. Sadly though a big bruising Springbok juggernaut, blessed with some dancing feet of their own, is the side more likely to be standing upright at the final whistle. A powerful Springbok performance is thus likely to end Japan’s epic World Cup journey by eleven points!

With all the rugby going on at the moment, we have to confess to finding it hard to keep a handle on all of it and a balance with work and family. As a result it’s a slightly abbreviated look at some of this weekend’s action. After a bumper crop of top notch matches in Round 1, the pickings are slightly slimmer this weekend, but some big matches are on offer. We’ve picked out three that perhaps best capture the flavor of what is already proving to be a memorable World Cup.

First up is tomorrow’s headliner between hosts Japan and one of the tournament favorites Ireland. The Irish have recognized the potential banana skin posed by Japan in front of what should be a very vocal crowd in Fukoroi. Ireland field a full strength side with only one or two omissions, fully aware that Japan will throw everything at them. After Scotland’s annihilation at the hands of the Irish, Japan are probably looking at their final match of the Pool stages with the Scots to attempt one of the tournament’s big upsets. However, they couldn’t ask for better preparation than Ireland who would appear to be regaining the form that made them such a force in 2018.

For us though it is Sunday that provides the bulk of the action. It is Uruguay who caused the first big upset of the tournament, with their historic win over Fiji, and what a match it was! It caught the imagination of the fans in attendance and was a fabulous match to watch. Georgia also put on an impressive second half display against Wales. On the basis of that we think that Sunday’s fixture between Georgia and Uruguay could end up being one of the best Tier 2 Pool games of the entire tournament. Uruguay will have had a shorter turnaround than the Georgians but if they play with the same kind of heart and conviction they showed against Fiji, then as a spectacle this could be quite the match, as Georgia are also not short on passion and hard graft.

We end with THE big match of the weekend as Pool D’s heavyweights, Australia and Wales do battle. Wales may have blown Georgia away in the first half  of their World Cup opener but the Georgians came back with a real vengeance in the second half and caused the Welsh all kinds of problems. In Australia’s case they suffered a serious case of opening night nerves as Fiji had them on the ropes in the first half. They were able to regroup for the second half and ultimately secure the victory, but there is no denying that they had been asked some serious questions along the way. As a result this could be a very even contest on Sunday as both sides seek to gain ascendancy in Pool D.

Japan vs Ireland – Saturday, September 28th – Fukuroi

Arguably Ireland’s second most difficult game of the Pool stages and one which will require another emphatic performance similar to that against Scotland. Ireland will be well aware that they have struggled at times this year to hit the ground running. Should they have the kind of off day that we saw a lot of during the Six Nations, then Japan could fancy their chances at an upset akin to their triumph over South Africa in the last World Cup.

However, Ireland in their last three games prior to the World Cup would appear to have started to hit their straps again. The performance we saw against Scotland, admittedly an exceptionally poor Scottish effort, in tough conditions demonstrated that Ireland would appear to be back on an upward trajectory just when they need it most.

Japan got the job done against Russia, but didn’t look like the giant killers that some imagine they may be in front of their home crowds on Rugby’s biggest stage. There’s certainly enough there to cause Ireland problems, but at this stage we’re not quite envisaging an upset on Saturday, especially with Ireland fielding an exceptionally capable squad which clearly recognizes and respects the potential threat Japan could pose.

Ireland will want to see a good outing from winger Keith Earls and fullback Rob Kearney after they missed the Scotland game due to injury. Meanwhile Jacob Stockdale will need to be at his best to contain Japanese try scoring machine Kotaro Matsushima who looked outstanding against Russia. CJ Stander was back to his bruising best for Ireland and will really need to step up again against Japan’s Amanaki Mafi who is genuinely world class. Also after an outstanding contribution from Jack Carty who took over from Johnny Sexton in the last quarter against Scotland, the young Irish fly half gets the nod at the starting 10 spot for this match. Irish supporters will also be keen to see Joey Carberry make an appearance as Carty’s replacement, after Carberry’s absence with injury.

Overall, despite what we think will be an exceptionally vigorous Japanese challenge, there is just too much class, pedigree and experience in this Irish match day 23 to make the likelihood of an upset a reality. Japan will be brave make no mistake and cause Ireland some problems, but Ireland to ultimately seal the deal by 16 points!

Georgia vs Uruguay – Sunday, September 29th – Kumagaya

After both sides exploits against Wales and Fiji, we have to confess that we are really looking forward to this one. While Uruguay managed to win their match after a heroic effort, Georgia certainly gave Wales an uphill battle at times in the second half. Both these teams really play with their hearts on their sleeves and are likely to be firm crowd favorites during the pool stages.

Georgia are keen to make a statement this tournament as they continue to push for a spot in the Six Nations, and a strong third place finish in their pool would further strengthen that argument. Uruguay meanwhile will continue to be an emerging rugby force in the Americas and with an increasing number of their players plying their trade in Major league Rugby in the US and Top 14 in France, they will also be chasing that third spot and automatic qualification for the next World Cup in France in 2023.

As a result two highly entertaining sides with plenty of grit go head to head with each other. Georgia should have the better forward pack, but as Uruguay showed against Fiji their forwards are no slouches. Uruguay should have the edge in the backs, having displayed some lovely running in the Fiji game, but Georgia has also come a long way since the days of them being recognized as a bone crushing set of forwards but not much else. They too have some silky backs, and as we saw against Wales they were able to make some damaging incisions into the Welsh defenses. In short, two very high quality Tier 2 sides who should provide one of the best underdog competitions of the tournament. Georgia’s reputation being the more heavyweight of the two should see them through in a very tight contest by two points!

Australia vs Wales – Sunday, September 29th – Tokyo

Without a doubt the showpiece event of the weekend! Barring any major upsets this contest will decide Pool D, despite Wales and Australia in particular having their odd moments of uncertainty against Georgia and Fiji. Australia as we predicted found that their rather exuberant running game at times would catch them out against Fiji, particularly if the execution wasn’t quite up to scratch. It wasn’t in the first half and Fiji capitalized as there is nothing they love better than unstructured open play. Australia adopted a much more conservative approach in the second half and it paid dividends.

Wales appeared to take their foot off the gas in the second half against Georgia, and got the rudest of wake up calls for the first quarter. A mistake they are unlikely to repeat against Australia. Much like Scotland though they have serious concerns about how deep they can go into this tournament should the injury gods not be kind to them in the Pool stages.

For a match of this significance both teams are packing a powerhouse match day 23 and bringing out all their big guns. While Wales managed to beat Australia in Cardiff last November for the first time in 8 years, it was at home, and the Welsh record against the Wallabies is not a favorable one. However, this Wallaby side blows so hot and cold, much like the French, that we are all wondering which Wallaby team will turn up on Sunday, even if it looks almost exactly the same on the team sheet bar one or two exceptions as the one that went up against Fiji. Wales meanwhile bring to Tokyo essentially the same team that faced off against Georgia.

The battle of the back rows should be one for the ages with David Pocock and Michael Hooper of Australia up against Justin Tipuric and Josh Navidi. Newcomers Isi Naisarani for Australia and Aaron Wainwright for Wales have both impressed, and should be well mentored by the four veterans surrounding them. The battle between Justin Tipuric and David Pocock though is one of the key battles on the park. Pocock seems back to his best after injury and Tipuric is probably one of Test Rugby’s most dependable men in a crisis.

Australia though have gone for a sea change in the half backs, while Wales stick with the tried and trusted formula of Gareth Davies and Dan Biggar. Biggar really seems to have a handle on how to pull Wales out of the fire should things start getting away from them and his goal kicking appears to be spot on. Australia bring Will Genia and Bernard Foley back into the mix and for a match of this importance, and despite being really impressed with Nic White, we feel it is the right call. Christian Lealiifano just didn’t seem in the match last weekend for the Wallabies and Bernard Foley and Matt Toomua look like more reliable platforms at number 10. The other notable inclusion for Australia is the long awaited return of Adam Ashley-Cooper on the right wing. However, we feel that the outstanding winger’s best days may be behind him, so expect to see Fijian missile Marika Koroibete and centre Samu Kerevi have more to say in the try scoring department for Australia on Sunday.

The benches look solid, but Australia may have the edge in their front row replacements, as we saw last week against Fiji. Otherwise we think it’s fairly even, and it’s another big call for Welsh fly half Rhys Patchell on the replacements bench. However, we’ve been fans of the Scarlets play maker for a while now and for the most part he seems to rise to big occasions like Sunday’s match.

Two very evenly matched teams face up in what should be a thrilling contest. Two teams who love to run the ball, with Wales perhaps having the better kicking game, but Australia a more enterprising and unpredictable back line. In the forwards it’s even stevens, with the Welsh pack perhaps being the more settled of the two. In short, almost impossible to call but we’re hedging our bets that Wales have a better understanding of the type of game they want to play and how to execute it. No we haven’t been taking betting tips from Rob Howley, but we’re giving it to Wales by three!