The November Test window opens in earnest this weekend, with some interesting fixtures in prospect, though for most the highlight of the weekend is likely to be the clash between Ireland and a resurgent South Africa. England take on Argentina and seek to give some new caps their first taste of the International stage. Meanwhile a depleted Wales look to take on their nemesis Australia who seem to be on a solidly upward trajectory, and France desperately seek to find a squad from the casualty wards that can take on an All Black team that still has some questions to answer. For Wales and France it will be all about trying find depth rather than results, whereas for Ireland and England a performance based result will clearly be the order of the day from the coaching staff.
Ireland will need to put a disappointing Six Nations behind them, and demonstrate that they have both the depth and skill set to be the competitors everyone knows they can be in the buildup to the World Cup. Ireland will need to show the consistency they so often lack over the coming months. They are without doubt the most potent threat in the Northern Hemisphere after England, but have so far struggled to string two solid wins together on the trot. South Africa will be desperate to prove that despite a truly heroic effort against the All Blacks last month which in our opinion was the THE Test of 2017 so far, they can perform to the same level away from home. Ireland as a first attempt at proving this is a truly daunting task, and as a result this should be a Test match to remember and the highlight of the weekend.
England in the process of blooding several new caps, should learn a great deal about their depth as well as securing a comfortable win against an Argentinian team that has simply failed to fire for more than fifty minutes in any given match this year. Make no mistake Argentina will be solid and gritty competition and if England let their guard down for a minute this could end up being their banana skin of 2017, but based on the Pumas current form we think it unlikely.
Wales face a team they simply seem unable to beat in the shape of the Wallabies, and with their squad riddled with injuries and as a result missing several key players, it is unlikely the status quo between these two sides is likely to change on Saturday. Australia will be keen to show that the renaissance we witnessed during the recent Rugby Championship, is no flash in the pan despite the chaos surrounding rugby at club level in Australia.
France will learn much about the depth they have available over the coming months as the insatiable demands of their club structure have meant that Coach Guy Noves is left with little choice other than selecting a squad we hardly recognise. While this may mean that France will struggle to put in much of a performance during November, it may also be beneficial in the long run as they uncover a raft of new talent at the beginning of their preparations for the next World Cup. New Zealand may be vulnerable at the moment, but we doubt that a relatively unknown French squad will unhinge the All Black juggernaut to any great degree. However it is France, and the history between these two sides is full of memorable surprises, and as a result always a contest worth watching, with the 2015 World Cup quarter-final perhaps being the only exception.
Anyway enough of the preamble and on to our usual look at the head to head matchups of the four key Tests this weekend.
England vs Argentina
Saturday, November 11th
Twickenham
We look at this match as the warm up game for England’s big match of November which in our opinion is their game against Australia next weekend. This is not to diminish Argentina as a threat but there is no question that this Pumas side is faltering at present and as a result will give England a workout but are unlikely to trouble an all-star England team. England will want to lay down the marker that they are the best team in the Northern Hemisphere and have made the most progress in building for the World Cup in Japan in 2019, whereas Argentina will simply be looking to put in a good performance and build the confidence of some their newer players.
In the battle of the front rows, England should easily have this wrapped up. Argentina’s Captain and Hooker Agustin Creevy is absolutely outstanding but England’s unit of Dan Cole, Dylan Hartley and Mako Vunipola packs experience and power that simply puts their Argentinian opponents in the shade. A tight battle but one that England should dominate is likely to be the order of the day. Add to the mix Jamie George off the bench as Hooker replacement for Hartley and the deal is sealed for England.
In the contest between the second rows, once again England should have the match sewn up in the shape of Courtney Lawes and George Kruis. We are really surprised to see Argentina’s biggest discipline liability, Tomas Lavanini in the starting lineup, and as much as we like Matias Alemanno we just can’t see this Argentine unit getting any traction on their English counterparts.
In the back row, the contest is a little edgier between the two teams, as we have to confess to really liking the Argentine trio of Pablo Matera, Marcos Kremer and Tomas Lezana. Lezana and Kremer have been new additions to the Pumas lineup this year and have consistently impressed. We have to admit that as a result of not having watched any of the English premiership English flanker Sam Underhill is a bit of a novelty to us so can’t really comment. However, Nathan Hughes and Chris Robshaw need no introduction and our money is on them to contain a very energetic and powerful Argentinian challenge in this part of the park.
In the half backs, Argentina just haven’t fired for us this year either with Nicolas Sanchez or the veteran Juan Martin Hernandez. Martin Landajo is a quality and gifted scrum half, but given the fact that as a unit the Argentinian half back partnership has not really clicked this year, it is difficult for us to see the two Pumas gaining any kind of authority over England’s tried and trusted pairing of scrum half Ben Youngs and fly half George Ford. So no surprises here but England to run the show on Saturday.
In the backs, despite some genuine talent in Argentina’s offerings, England just look far too dangerous. The two Pumas wingers Emiliano Boffelli and Ramiro Moyano are big fast men but England’s Elliot Daly and Anthony Watson just boast too much pedigree and experience for it to be anything other than England dictating the play here. Add to that a genuinely exciting English centre partnership of the outstanding Henry Slade and Jonathan Joseph and once more England would seem to have the clear advantage. It is perhaps only at fullback where we’d argue that Argentina have an edge in Joaquin Tuculet over England’s Mike Brown. In our opinion the Puma packs more of an X-factor than the Englishman, and as a result is likely to be the more dangerous of the two. However, overall this English set of backs just look the more complete unit and as a result we expect it to be all about England here on Saturday.
Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of England’s game on Saturday will be the impact of the bench from prop Harry Williams, flanker Sam Simmonds and fly half Alex Lozowski. Lozowski and Williams both made us sit up and take notice on England’s tour to Argentina this June, and Williams has been immense for the most exciting team in the English premiership Exeter Chiefs. Despite their lack of experience when matched up against an Argentinian bench boasting more caps we still predict England to have the edge here.
It should be a tight battle at times, especially in the loose, but we can’t help feeling that England are ultimately going to run away with this one by 18 points!
Wales vs Australia
Saturday, November 11th
Cardiff
As we have said already Welsh supporters need to look at this match with an eye to developing some depth in their squad at this stage of the World Cup cycle. Their first outing against a rampant Australian side, is likely going to be a very tall order and as a result getting a solid performance by some of the newer players will be more important in many ways than an actual win. Australia on the other hand will want to show that they have now moved up a few gears in their preparation for the next World Cup and the recent win against New Zealand was clear evidence of this.
In the front rows, it should be Australia’s day, as after having been one of Test Rugby’s bad jokes, the Wallaby front row now looks solid and able to mix it with the best in the shape of Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Scott Sio. The Welsh offering boasts some solid prowess in the shape of Ken Owens, Rob Evans and Tom Francis but we just feel that the Australians have really stood out this year and with the familiarity of playing together now for the last 3 months they should have the edge over the Welsh.
In the second rows, we are really looking forward to the battle between Australia’s Adam Coleman and Welsh talisman and Captain Alun-Wyn Jones. We have been one of Coleman’s biggest fans since he first pulled on a Wallaby jersey and we expect a ferocious battle between the youngster and the veteran here on Saturday. We’d argue otherwise it’s an even match between the other two second rowers Rob Simmonds for Australia and Jake Ball for Wales, with the Welshman perhaps having the edge. Consequently we think Wales just might get the better of the contest here, especially if Ken Owens is solid with the throw-ins come lineout time.
In the back rows, we’re looking forward to seeing how the two new Welshman perform in the shape of flankers Aaron Shingler and Josh Navidi. Having said that though we expect to see the class and experience of Australia’s Michael Hooper at flanker and the outstanding Sean McMahon at number eight rule the day. Taulupe Faletau for Wales will add plenty of spark but may be so busy caretaking his two rookie partners at Test level that his impact may be slightly diminished. Australia should win the contest but as we said, it’s going to be fascinating to see the two new Welshman in action and what this tells us about Welsh depth in this part of the park with an eye to Japan in 2019.
In the half backs, Will Genia has been on fire for Australia since the Rugby Championship, and although Bernard Foley may have struggled at times especially with the kicking duties, there is no doubting the value he adds to this Wallaby side and his willingness to throw himself into the fray. Dan Biggar and Gareth Davies need no introduction for Wales and if these two fire they can provide plenty of sparks of their own. However, based on performance, especially Genia’s we’re handing the contest to Australia here.
In the backs, we should once more get an idea of what kind of depth Wales are developing as both winger Steff Evans and centre Owen Williams get their first call to arms at Test level against a major rugby superpower. The rest of the Welsh back line backs some serious experience and punch in the shape of winger Liam Williams who is electric, and in our opinion the most exciting player in a Welsh jersey centre Jonathan Davies, with the veteran Leigh Halfpenny shoring up the fullback spot. However, in our opinion Halfpenny is not the player he once was. As good as this Welsh five are, along with the excitement of the new talent it’s Australia’s turbocharged offering which lit up pitches this Rugby Championship that we feel is going to carve massive holes in an inexperienced Welsh defence. Wallaby winger Marika Koroibete was one of the revelations of the recent Rugby Championship and his partner Reece Hodge is an exceptionally versatile back line player and brings with him a massive point scoring boot. Our only surprise is seeing Kurtley Beale at fullback given his stellar performances so far this year at centre. However, with Israel Folau on sabbatical it is perhaps no bad thing to give the versatile Beale some exposure at fullback, a position he has played before. Tevita Kuridrani effectively steamrolled his way through opposition defences this year for Australia and his partner Samu Kerevi, despite some defensive frailties, is electric with ball in hand. There is just too much raw talent in the Wallaby back five for it to be anything other than Australia’s day here on Saturday, but if the Welsh offering especially the youngsters can really stand up and be counted, Welsh supporters will still have a lot to cheer about.
The benches are, especially in the case of Wales, all about blooding new talent, so again lots to learn here. However, overall especially given Wales’ woeful record against Australia, we can’t see it being anything other than an emphatic Australian win by 15 points!
Ireland vs South Africa
Saturday, November 11th
Dublin
Without any shadow of a doubt THE big fixture of the weekend, and one which we will be glued to our screens for. The South African performance against New Zealand in their final match of the Rugby Championship in Cape Town was for us the game of 2017 so far, and we expect this match to be of an equal calibre. Two sides with plenty to prove, and given their respective strengths and weaknesses being essentially equal competitors. In short this could go either way and should be an absolute belter of a Test.
In the front rows, despite the presence of the exceptional Tadhg Furlong and Cian Healy for Ireland, we hand the contest to South Africa, simply on the presence of Malcom Marx alone. If you’re wondering why we are so emphatic in our rating of the South African hooker then just watch this:
Add to Marx the incomparable Tendai “Beast” Mtawarira and Coenie Oosthuizen packing down alongside him and this is a truly terrifying unit. Ireland especially in the shape of Healy and Furlong will be exceptionally competitive make no mistake, but we just can’t help feeling that Rory Best is just not the match of Marx, especially at lineout time, given the fact that South Africa will be packing three second rowers in their lineout. It will be a brave struggle by Ireland here, but one which South Africa should win comfortably. Throw in Steven “the ginger Ninja” Kitshoff off the bench along with the impressive Wilco Louw and South Africa’s dominance is assured.
In the second rows, we also hand the contest to South Africa fair and square. Lood de Jager and Eben Etzebeth are so familiar with each other and such gigantic figures in the lineout that Ireland’s Devin Toner and the exceptional Ian Henderson are going to struggle to keep these two powerful figures in check. Add to that the incomparable Franco Mostert waiting on the bench and it is going to be hard for Ireland to contain South Africa here let alone acheive any kind of dominance, especially if Rory Best’s lineout throwing is not up to scratch.
It’s in the back rows, where things start to even up between the two sides. With CJ Stander at number eight and Peter O’Mahony and Sean O’Brien on the flanks this is a fast and dangerous Irish loose trio. However, they will be equally matched by South Africa’s outstanding Siya Kolisi and Pieter-Steph du Toit, despite the latter usually playing as a second rower. Despite playing out of position, Du Toit excelled in the flanker role in the second Test against New Zealand and expect more of the same on Saturday. We just can’t pick a side that has a clear advantage here and as a result expect this to be one of the most exciting contests on the field on Saturday.
In the half backs, though the ascendancy starts to swing firmly in favor of Ireland. The Irish half back partnership of scrum half Conor Murray and fly half Jonathan Sexton is simply one of International Test Rugby’s finest and should easily completely dictate the passage of play on Saturday in Ireland’s favor. It’s also worth noting that Murray’s replacement on the bench Kieran Marmion had an outstanding game under pressure against England in the Six Nations this year and is likely to provide ample support in continuing whatever dominance the Irish are able to achieve here. Ross Cronje and Elton Jantjies are a solid pairing for South Africa but they simply don’t have the X-factor and tactical skill sets of the Irish pair. Like many we are interested to see if Handre Pollard comes off the Springbok bench as number 10 or a centre and feel South Africa will learn much about who should be playing these positions by the end of this November Test series.
In the backs, we can’t help feeling that it is going to be a run away contest in favor of Ireland. This is one area of South Africa’s game which so far this year hasn’t really made anyone sit up and take notice. It’s not that they haven’t got good players, but more a question of not really knowing how to use or support them. Furthermore, we cannot for the life of us understand the inclusion of Damian de Allende in the starting fifteen at centre when there are so many more talented centres in South Africa. We just can’t see De Allende working all that well alongside Jesse Kriel who is an impressive ball carrier but like De Allende is also rather one-dimensional and fairly easy to read defensively. Ireland boast a lethal centre partnership of Robbie Henshaw and newcomer Bundee Aki who gets his first start for Ireland after having lit up the Pr012/14 at Connacht for the last few years and is Henshaw’s former partner at club level. We’re very excited to see two new starts for Ireland on the wing in the shape of Andrew Conway and Jacob Stockdale with the latter being the talk of Irish rugby this season for all the right reasons. South African wingers Dillyn Leyds and Courtnall Skosan are exciting players in their own right but given that the Irish pair are going to have the likes of Sexton and company looking to put them into space, we just can’t help seeing Ireland running rings around South Africa here on Saturday. Lastly at fullback although we question the selection of Rob Kearney at fullback as opposed to newcomer Tiernan O’Halloran, especially as there are question marks around Kearney making it to Japan, there is no doubt that there are still some big games left in the veteran fullback. We questioned his inclusion in the Irish starting fifteen against New Zealand in Chicago last year only to have him put in a vintage performance. Nevertheless we would have at least liked to see O’Halloran on the bench, perhaps we’ll see him for the match against Argentina. South Africa’s Andries Coetzee is a fine player but if Kearney produces one of his vintage performances it will be hard for the South African fullback to really get the better of his much more experienced Irish counterpart.
This will very much be a game where if South Africa establish forward dominance and suffocate Irish go forward ball the contest will be a dead heat till the final whistle. However, if the Irish back row gets the better of the South Africans then Ireland’s more accomplished and dangerous set of players from 9-15, plus home advantage should see them home. South Africa are still desperately trying to shake the demon of performing badly away from home off their back, something we think they are likely to do this tour, but not against the second best side in the Northern Hemisphere as an opening Test. Consequently we are handing this to Ireland by five!
France vs New Zealand
Saturday, November 11th
Paris
Despite the seemingly inevitable outcome of this match there is still plenty of interest to be had. Let’s face it at this stage we know pretty well everything about this star-studded New Zealand squad but virtually nothing about this French squad, which to be fair has been cobbled together at the last-minute due to many of French Coach Guy Noves’ first choice selections littering the casualty wards of hospitals across France at the moment. Once more much like Wales, what French supporters should take from this November series is how much depth they are developing for the World Cup in Japan in just under two years as opposed to actual success in terms of results on the pitch.
In the front rows, there is some familiarity for those of us who have been watching France in the last few seasons, in the shape of Captain and Hooker Guilhem Guirado, alongside props Rabah Slimani and Jefferson Poirot. We are big fans of both Guirado and Slimani but there is no question that they are going to be up against it when going head to head with New Zealand’s new look partnership of Nepo Laulala, Dane Coles and Kane Hames. This is by no means New Zealand’s second string front row as was evidenced in the Rugby Championship and can easily fill in for regulars Owen Franks and Joe Moody. Solid, reliable and with the X-factor of Coles, New Zealand are going to be very hard if not impossible to beat here, with New Zealand’s bench looking to complete the destruction.
In the second rows, with the presence of perhaps the best in the world in the shape of Sam Whitelock, New Zealand will have the clear edge here and his partner Luke Romano provides plenty of firepower as well. We know a fair bit about France’s Sebastien Vahaamahina but next to nothing about newcomer Paul Gabrillagues having watched none of the TOP 14 this season. However, whatever talents the French pair have we just can’t see them getting the better of the New Zealand duo, especially with Whitelock in the mix. With Scott Barrett waiting on the bench for New Zealand the pain here is only likely to intensify for France.
In the back rows, it’s once again all about New Zealand though expect France to be more competitive here. Flanker Vaea Fifita was sensational in the Rugby Championship prompting many to draw similarities between him and the great Jonah Lomu. While still relatively inexperienced at Test level this remarkable player is only going to get better and more dangerous in the buildup to the next World Cup. Packing down alongside him are Sam Cane and Captain Kieran Read and France are going to have to be rather extraordinary to gain any kind of traction here. However, in the shape of Louis Picamoles at eight who is always inspirational and Kevin Gourdon who is someone we have consistently enjoyed watching, France should manage to at least be competitive here even if New Zealand are likely to dominate proceedings.
In the half backs, having not watched any of the TOP 14 we have to confess to knowing nothing about France’s two newcomers fly half Anthony Belleau and scrum half Antoine Dupont. However, New Zealand’s Beauden Barrett and Aaron Smith are arguably the best in the world at their trade to the point we just can’t see France being even remotely competitive here. We do know a great deal about Baptiste Serin who occupies the French bench as a scrum half replacement and must confess surprise to not seeing him start, as he genuinely brings some excitement and X-factor to the position for France. With New Zealand’s TJ Perenara and Lima Sopoaga waiting on the bench in the half back berth’s France’s demise in this part of the park would seem assured.
Lastly in the backs it should once more be all about New Zealand plain and simple. The names Damian McKenzie, Waisake Naholo, Ryan Crotty, Sonny Bill Williams and Rieko Ioane for Zealand ring like a roll call of honor in back line play in International Test Rugby right now. While names like French winger Yoann Huget and his partner Teddy Thomas may be familiar to us, they have hardly been occupying the bright lights of the Test stage in the last year like the New Zealanders have. The choice of Mathieu Bastareaud at centre for France to us smacks of sheer desperation in an attempt to contain the physicality and ball carrying skills of Sonny Bill Williams. As for the rest of France’s back line offering we simply know nothing of them and as a result simply can’t imagine them having much say in proceedings when up against the ridiculous skill sets of their New Zealand opponents.
As we said above, like Wales French supporters will need to see this match through the lens of what it shows them in terms of depth going forward in their World Cup preparations. Despite the proud history of epic matches full of surprises, between these two sides, we are hard pressed to see too many surprises in the making come Saturday. New Zealand should walk away with this without too much difficulty by 22 points, though having said that we have to confess to hoping that France may just turn the form book upside down – doubtful but fun to hope for!
Endnote
As always we include the 1014’s preview of November’s action, and continue to thoroughly enjoy the vast body of work, especially in terms of detailed analysis that these two fine gentelemen, Steve and Gareth, are putting out. For some in depth understanding of who’s who in the pot when it comes to Test Rugby and the buildup to the World Cup you can’t go wrong having a look at some of their excellent work. Enjoy, give them a big thumbs up and make sure you subscribe to keep this excellent content coming!
The Lineout 