We had mixed feelings about the November Internationals when they were announced as we would have liked to have seen the two leading Northern Hemisphere rivals England and Ireland have a crack at more than just one of the Southern Hemisphere’s big three, despite them both getting a chance to play Argentina. Instead it would seem that Wales, Scotland and France will get that privilege and in the process really find out how much depth there is in their talent banks and where the glaring gaps are, with the Welsh being tested the most. Nevertheless the opening weekend still served up some tasty fixtures and left us with much food for thought as we look ahead to the four matches we will be focusing on this weekend.
Italy get us started against Argentina, who despite a sloppy performance against England last weekend, still managed to end the match within a respectable distance of the scoreline. Italy ground out a confidence building win against Fiji and the progress that Coach Conor O’Shea is making with his side was there for all to see. Italy will want to make a big statement about their future this weekend, and if they do so, could even contemplate another historic win against a Springbok side reeling from one crisis to another. Argentina themselves are a shadow of the side that lit up the 2015 World Cup, and seem to have more questions than answers at the moment. However they are still not a side to be taken lightly and should they click then could prove to be the surprise of the month, setting up a mouth-watering showdown with Ireland in a week’s time.
England have their BIG game of the November series against an Australian side that is literally humming with intent and danger. For us this is THE match of the weekend and will tell us a great deal about Australia’s resurgence and how sound England’s position in the World Rankings at number two really is. Let’s be honest England’s display against Argentina last weekend did not exactly leave us awestruck, and they know they will have to notch their performance up quite a few gears this weekend if they are to justify their lofty status at number two in the World rankings. There is no doubt they are likely to rise to the occasion, but this Australian side is not the one they ran rings around last summer in Australia or at Twickenham last November. Settled and having had a long period of time together over the last three months, this is a formidable looking Wallaby outfit that is lean, mean and fast. A worthy Test of England’s character and progress to date awaits this Saturday at Twickenham.
Scotland then take on New Zealand, and while their defences were a matter of serious concern against a brave and plucky Samoa last weekend, their attacking prowess was breathtaking at times. As some have said, Scotland’s seemingly self-processed aim of playing some of the fastest attacking rugby on the planet appears to have left the defensive aspect of their game somewhat lacking. However, given the solidity of their attack and given the challenge facing them this weekend, it is likely that Coach Gregor Townsend and his charges have worked relentlessly at the defensive structures in their gameplay this week. New Zealand’s back line is more than capable of shredding any team on the planet and if Scotland don’t have a healthy understanding of how to use and understand what they see unfolding in their rear view mirrors on Saturday it could turn into a long and painful afternoon for the Scots, especially if their white line fever is not tempered with some solid and well thought out defensive patterns. New Zealand ultimately pulled off a comfortable win against France last weekend, but clearly took their foot off the gas in the second half, and were exposed badly at times by an exuberant French team.
Lastly, a grudge match of epic proportions awaits in Paris as the two finalists to host the 2023 World Cup go head to head in the Stade de France. With France much to the surprise of many, ourselves included, being awarded the World Cup in six years time, South Africa will feel more than just a bit resentful. It remains to be seen if this is yet one more humiliation they will have to suffer this year, or it will inspire them to put in a performance to well and truly spoil France’s party on home soil. To be honest after the truly awful display by the Springboks against a clinical and ruthless Ireland last weekend, we can’t help feeling that such aspirations on the part of South Africa are sadly nothing more than flights of fancy. France on the other hand were a revelation last weekend against New Zealand. Once Coach Guy Noves’ team started to click in the second half, we all put down our pints and watched in fascination as one of the most exciting debutant half back partnerships we’ve seen in a while went to work in blue jerseys. To be honest we had kind of written off France, but were delighted to see that there was finally some truth to the rumor that France is once more a sleeping giant in Test Rugby!
Just before we go into our usual head to heads for this weekend, we feel we need to give a big shout out to Canada’s opponents last weekend Georgia and Scotland’s foes Samoa. Georgia dispatched a Canadian side that still seems like South Africa to be completely rudderless, and did it in spectacular style making their fixture with Wales this weekend one we are more than likely to tune into. This try by fullback Soso Matiashvili surely has to be contender for try of the year, even though the nominations are now closed. If Canada had only half this kind of commitment then their current woes could start to be a thing of the past.
As mentioned above we also give Samoa, who faced a crisis of epic proportions within their own union last weekend, full credit as they were able to rise to the challenge so heroically against Scotland. It was inspirational stuff to a man and once more displayed the character and passion which is such an integral part of our glorious sport – Canada take note! Samoa we salute you!
Italy vs Argentina
Saturday, November 18th
Italy need to win this and win it well, to both set themselves up for their encounter with South Africa in a week’s time as well as prove that the work that Coach Conor O’Shea is doing with this side is paying dividends in making Italy a genuinely competitive side. Despite Argentina’s lacklustre performance against England last weekend, this is a quality Pumas side that simply needs to click and if it does then Italy are going to be put to the test in no uncertain terms. A fascinating contest awaits especially if Argentina really turn up.
In the front rows, Argentina need to come to the party given the experience they have while Italy’s youngsters need to face up to the challenge. Given the fact that Argentina have the vastly experienced Agustin Creevy packing down we give the Pumas the edge here, despite the fact that they can no longer count on the scrum being one of their dominant platforms. Nevertheless, expect Italy to be competitive in this part of the park.
In the second rows, we also hand the contest to Argentina, especially as we were pleasantly surprised by Tomas Lavanini last weekend. He clearly seemed to have learnt the errors of his ways in terms of discipline and put in a remarkably composed performance against England who must have had him as a clear target in any attempts to get under the Pumas skin. Matias Alemanno was also solid and these two are a daunting unit. Italy’s offerings in Marco Fuser and newcomer Dean Budd are no slouches and will give as good as they get, but we just feel if the Pumas fire, the Argentinian duo are likely to be the more destructive pairing, especially with Guido Petti on the bench.
In the back rows, we also hand it to Argentina. Despite the fact that the Pumas number eight Juan Manuel Leguizamon is getting to close to the end of his tenure, there is no denying his pedigree and influence on this team especially if he can keep his discipline. As a result the contest between him and Italian talisman Sergio Parisse will be one of the highlights of this match, although the sheer inspiration that Parisse provides to his teammates should see the Italian come out on top. However, it’s at 6 and 7 where we feel that Argentina are going to be exceptionally dangerous. Pablo Matera is one of the best in the world and is often regarded as Argentina’s miracle man when the chips are down. His colleague, the towering Marcos Kremer, has also been a player who individually has impressed all season for Argentina. Their Italian counterparts Francesco Minto and Braam Steyn need no introduction, but the mere presence of Matera alone for Argentina, along with the rest of his all-star back row cast, makes us believe that despite Sergio Parisse Argentina may just have the edge here on Saturday.
Italy boasts a solid and promising half back partnership in the shape of fly half Carlo Canna and scrum half Marcello Violi. Canna’s kicking continues to improve and he has shown himself to be more than willing to take ball in hand and throw himself into the fray when needed. A player who we feel gets better with each outing and is a genuinely bright prospect for Italy. Argentina’s pairing of Martin Landajo and Nicolas Sanchez really needs to click in this match. They often seem impatient and out of sync with each other which sees Argentina lose possession after one or two phases. However, with Sanchez scoring Argentina’s only try after an impressive 20 phases against England last weekend, it is clear that if they work together and stop trying to pull off moves that their skill sets can’t match, the Pumas pair provide the ability to run a tight game. Italy are still learning here, and Argentina just aren’t firing so as result on home soil we are just nudging it in favor of Italy, especially if it comes to a kicking contest between the sticks, as Canna’s success rate seems better than Sanchez’s of late.
In the backs, there is definitely some speed and pace here for Italy with winger Leonardo Sarto looking very good against Fiji and we also like the look of Mattia Bellini, so much so that we think Italy has the edge here, despite the presence of the Pumas new superstar winger Emiliano Boffelli. Boffelli’s colleague Sebastian Cancelliere made us sit up and take notice in the Americas Rugby Championship this year, but the Pumas pair were simply too quiet for us against England whereas the Italians really shone against Fiji at times. In the centres the balance swings back in Argentina’s favor with Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias and Matias Orlando, even if we really didn’t see anything of them in the England game up against a relatively new Italian pairing of the two Tommassos, Boni and Castello. Italy finally seem to have a decent fullback in Jayden Hayward but Argentina’s Joaquin Tuculet is a special talent and as a result should have the edge here.
It is likely to be close with both sides wanting to make a statement, but despite home advantage for Italy we just feel that Argentina’s pedigree is simply that much better, despite them really not firing as a unit this year. Consequently a gritty battle with occasional flashes of brilliance from both sides, should see Argentina clinch it by two points!
England vs Australia
Saturday, November 18th
This is probably the most anticipated fixture of the November Internationals. England’s epic run of back to back victories came to a screeching halt this March in Dublin as Ireland finally managed to derail the English juggernaut. Since then a successful tour to Argentina which gave many up and coming English players their first real taste of the heat of battle at Test Level, and a good performance by English players on the Lions Tour, has meant there are plenty of grounds for optimism. However, between now and the World Cup the pressure is only going to increase and the opposition be more challenging. England looked rather pedestrian at times against Argentina, and distinctly average for large periods of the game. It is unlikely that Coach Eddie Jones will tolerate a similar performance against a Wallaby side that are a mere shadow of the shambolic outfit England went up against in 2016. England will be tested to the full on Saturday by an Australian team that is gaining momentum at an alarming rate. Unlike South Africa, Australia have emerged from the nightmare of 2016 looking in increasingly fine mettle and worthy challengers to England’s position of number two in the World rankings. A battle royale between two quality sides awaits us all at Twickenham this Saturday.
In the front rows, it is going to be tight but England should have the advantage. Australia are only just emerging from the wilderness in terms of scrum prowess. Although their progress here in the last six months has been nothing short of remarkable, it is still not as settled as that of England’s front row trio of Mako Vunipola, Dan Cole and Dylan Hartley, with Vunipola being one of the few standout English performers in the match against the Pumas last Saturday. Australia to be competitive and troublesome but England to win the contest here.
In the second rows, England should also have the edge in the shape of the tried and trusted platform of Courtney Lawes and Joe Launchbury. While we think that Australia’s Adam Coleman is someone we will all be talking about come the World Cup, his partner Rob Simmons simply doesn’t match up at the same level, especially given the English offering, and the fact that Maro Itoje will be waiting on the bench for England. England to clearly dominate here, but Coleman to cause them all kinds of problems especially at lineout time.
In the back rows, the contest suddenly levels out and the advantage swings in favor of Australia. We thought Sam Underhill was outstanding, albeit naive at times, for England last weekend and clearly a force to be reckoned with for the future. Nathan Hughes also impressed at number eight along with the ever reliable Chris Robshaw at flanker. However, Australia’s Michael Hooper and number eight Sean McMahon are just that much more dynamic and unpredictable in our opinion. The only weak link here for us is the Wallabies’ Ned Hanigan, but even he is starting to silence some of his doubters. Nevertheless despite a very solid English offering here, we hand the contest to Australia given the X-factor and sheer nuisance value of Hooper and brute force of McMahon.
In the half backs, despite the presence of the exceptional Will Genia at scrum half for Australia it should be all about England. The pairing of scrum half Ben Youngs and fly half George Ford is once more starting to settle nicely, with some real intelligence on display here. As a unit we just think the English pair is firing better, especially in the kicking department. Furthermore despite some epic performances this year for Australia, on the odd occasion Genia has gone missing for Australia and there will be plenty of pressure on both him and fly half Bernard Foley on Saturday, something which Foley in particular seems to be struggling with of late as good a player as he is. Therefore England to run the show here on Saturday.
In the backs, it’s a hard one to call but with Owen Farrell in the mix for England at centre alongside Jonathan Joseph, England may just have the slimmest of margins in terms of which side will get the upper hand. The Wallaby offering of Tevita Kuridrani and Samu Kerevi packs plenty of power and pace, but we just can’t help feeling that the English pair have the better tactical mindset especially when allied to their half back partnership of Ford and Youngs. On the wings though we feel Australia has the edge in the shape of the remarkable Reece Hodge and Australia’s find of the year Marika Koroibete. Elliot Daly and Jonny May provide plenty of potential to light up the pitch but we just feel that Hodge and Koroibete have some useful familiarity at the moment with the latter proving to be a nightmare for opposition defences to cope with. Lastly at fullback Australia’s Kurtley Beale has shown us some real magic in the last six months and we just feel he possesses a bit more X-factor than England’s Anthony Watson, albeit not by much. The contest between the Wallaby and English back lines is going to be fascinating and often equal. If Owen Farrell doesn’t quite shine as England need him to then Australia are likely to win the margins. However, with Farrell on form and the rest of his backs stepping up we hand this to England by the slimmest of margins.
It’s England’s bench with the exception of Joe Marler, who we still regard as a disciplinary liability for England, that should seal the deal in England’s favor on Saturday, albeit not by much. As much as Marler is a liability for England, the same could be said of Nick Phipps for Australia. But overall it is a very strong bench for England with some of their brightest up and coming talent packing the ranks, whereas the Wallaby bench is much more of a mixed bag particularly in terms of form. It is going to be incredibly close at times and hopefully a spectacle of Test rugby that we will all be talking about for many weeks to come. However, at home we can’t help feeling that this is England’s match by 2 points!
Scotland vs New Zealand
Saturday, November 18th
We all know that Scotland are one of the most exciting attacking teams on the planet, but they are going to have to be that and one of the best teams defensively as well on Saturday if they are to give New Zealand a genuine run from their money. As impressed as we were by Scotland at times last Saturday against Samoa, there were simply too many alarm bells going off in the defensive quarters for us to feel confident about Scotland causing an upset this Saturday. They are likely to have spent the week working on their weaknesses in this department, but given the speed and ruthlessness of New Zealand we sadly doubt it will be enough of a turnaround in the space of a mere seven days. New Zealand will be looking no doubt to put in two “complete” performances to end their year, and it would seem that Scotland and Wales could well end up being the sacrificial lambs to that cause.
In the front rows, even without the presence of Dane Coles for New Zealand, the All Blacks should still have the clear edge. Coles’ understudy at Hooker, Codie Taylor needs no introduction and is a fearsome weapon in his own right. His partners Nepo Laulala and Kane Hames have also impressed throughout 2017. Scotland will be brave here make no mistake and we are huge fans of Scottish prop Zander Ferguson and like the promise of Hooker Stuart McInally, but they will be up against it as they seek to try to keep the New Zealand trio at bay.
In the second rows, Scotland’s offering of the exceptional Jonny Gray and Ben Toolis are likely to once more put up a brave fight, but the fact that the New Zealand second row boasts Sam Whitelock says it all. Whitelock is probably the best in the world at his position and Scotland are going to be working overtime just to keep his influence on proceedings to a minimum, let alone his partner Luke Romano.
In the back rows, it’s also hard to see Scotland getting the better of New Zealand, especially if Vaea Fifita has the kind of game he had against Argentina in the recent Rugby Championship. The contest here however is slightly less one-sided as we rate the two Scottish flankers John Barclay and Hamish Watson very highly. Both possess extraordinary work rates and seem to be virtually indestructible with Watson able to cause havoc at times. However, the pedigree of Sam Cane and Kieran Read should ensure that as the match wears on New Zealand start to dominate in this part of the field, especially once the bench starts making an impact in the shape of Matt Todd and Liam Squire.
In the half backs, it will be hard for Scotland to better New Zealand’s Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett. England, Ireland and New Zealand have without a doubt the best half back pairings in Test rugby right now, and it will be a tall order for Scotland’s Finn Russel and Ali Price to unseat Smith and Barrett’s complete control of proceedings. Having said that though we must confess to finding Scotland’s Finn Russell to be a very exciting player with scrum half Ali Price bringing some real fizz to the position that has been lacking in Scottish rugby in days gone by. There will be plenty of sparks here on Saturday, but with TJ Perenara waiting on the bench for New Zealand, it is going to be hard to for Scotland to really exert the kind of control and continuity needed here. Expect New Zealand to dictate proceedings with occasional flashes of brilliance from Scotland.
In the backs, there should be plenty of excitement from both sides. Scotland’s 12-15 axis has danger written all over it in the shape of the electric centre pairing of Alex Dunbar and Huw Jones, winger Tommy Seymour and speed merchant Stuart Hogg at fullback. However, for us New Zealand just look that much more accomplished and settled in their 11-15. The centre partnership of Sonny Bill Williams and the exceptional Ryan Crotty seems to have developed an effective formula, while Rieko Ioane has proved almost unstoppable out wide. Waisake Naholo packs plenty of pace and power on the opposite wing, and Damian McKenzie’s catlike elusiveness and sense of where the gaps are coupled to some exceptional passing skills and turn of pace, mean that New Zealand have the complete package here. Once again Scotland are likely to be exceptionally competitive in this area especially for the first hour, but New Zealand look the more tried and tested unit with a solid track record since August.
Despite the fact we feel a Scottish win is sadly not on the cards, we still think it should be an exceptionally exciting match at times with some spectacular running rugby from both sides. However, New Zealand look the more accomplished and familiar side and as a result we see them taking it by 21 points in a runaway finish in the last quarter!
France vs South Africa
Saturday, November 18th
Let’s be brutally honest it has been a harsh week for South African rugby. It starts with the schooling the Springboks got in Dublin intensifying the calls for the head of Coach Alastair Coetzee. Then mid-week South Africa learns that after seemingly having the 2023 World Cup bid in the bag, they are pipped at the post by France. Now to add insult to injury a demoralised South African team has to take on France on the ground that will see the final of the 2023 global showdown. It is going to be hard for players and supporters to drag themselves out of the funk surrounding the sport in South Africa on Saturday, but that is precisely what they need to do to vindicate their standing in the World Rugby order, and show that despite the disappointment they are still one of the sport’s great competitors. It will be a tough ask against a French team likely to be bubbling over with a degree of joie de vivre, as well as confidence from a respectable showing against the mighty All Blacks last weekend.
In the front rows, all is not lost for South Africa and despite the fact that the entire front row went missing in Dublin last weekend there is some serious firepower here. Hooker Malcolm Marx if he produces the kind of game he pulled off in the second Test against New Zealand in Cape Town in October, could singlehandedly demolish the entire French forward effort. However, we also highly rate France’s front row offering especially of Hooker Guilhem Guirado and Rabah Slimani. South Africa possess the legendary Tendai “Beast” Mtawarira in support of Marx, and despite the loss of Coenie Oosthuizen to injury, we like his replacement Wilco Louw. These three really need to click for South Africa on Saturday, and with Stephen Kitshoff on the bench we just feel that provided they turn up South Africa have the edge here.
In the second rows, South Africa should also have the clear edge in the shape of Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager, provided that unlike last week they actually show up. However Sebastien Vahaamahina and Paul Gabrillagues had a solid game against New Zealand with Vahaamahina catching the eye on more than one occasion. Franco Mostert could provide some salvation for South Africa off the bench, but this contest is hard to call. Based on form alone from last weekend, we are perhaps controversially handing this one to the French.
In the back rows, there is also plenty of firepower for South Africa but it too really needs to find some character and polish that was so woefully lacking last Saturday in Dublin. Francois Louw returns to the flank alongside Siya Kolisi who was remarkably quiet and even inept at times, especially given the kinds of performances he has put in so far this year. At number eight Duane Vermeulen makes a return to the Springbok jersey, but doubts remain about his fitness especially as he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire for Toulon this season. France bring two players we rate very highly in the shape of talisman Louis Picamoles at number eight and Kevin Gourdon at flanker. We thought Gourdon in particular had an excellent game against New Zealand last Saturday. In short, despite the talent they have South Africa are going to be hard pressed to match France in this part of the park especially on home soil for les Bleus.
In the half back contest, we have to confess to having been blown away by the two French youngsters, scrum half Antoine Dupont and Anthony Belleau, last weekend against New Zealand. Despite the fact that South Africa are finally starting Handre Pollard once more at fly half, it’s been a while since he has worn the number 10 jersey for the Springboks. The French half back pairing was outstanding against New Zealand, especially given their lack of experience, something that so far we can’t say about the South African unit. We know Pollard has the talent but we haven’t really seen it for a while now, and he was remarkably quiet off the bench last weekend in Dublin even though he was not playing at fly half. On X-factor alone we’re giving this one to France.
In the backs, we also feel that it is once more all about France. Teddy Thomas scored a fine try last weekend, and Nans Ducuing was a revelation at fullback. The centre pairing of Geoffrey Doumayrou and Mathieu Bastareaud also got some serious go forward traction on New Zealand, and Bastareaud’s aggressive physicality is likely to prove problematic for South Africa’s Francois Venter and Jesse Kriel. At least South Africa are not starting Damian de Allende at centre though we scratched our head over his inclusion on the bench, but even Jesse Kriel has made increasingly little impact on the Springbok cause of late while Francois Venter has little Test experience. On the wings and under the high ball Courntall Skosan and Dillyn Leyds looked exceptionally vulnerable last weekend and expect France to target both this weekend. The only Springbok player in the backs who we thought tried to make a go of it against Ireland last weekend was fullback Andries Coetzee, but as a lone wolf with no support from his teammates up against a water tight Irish defence he was able to achieve very little. We know France can be exciting here and they proved that last weekend, whereas South Africa’s backs have for the most part been a constant Achilles heel for them, and we just can’t see that changing on Saturday meaning that France should have the clear edge in the running game.
The South African bench with the exception of Franco Mostert and Stephen Kitshoff is unlikely to give France much cause for concern, especially if they have managed to gain any sort of dominance by the final quarter. South Africa simply can’t be as woeful as they were last weekend, but it is still a big ask and one which will really determine what kind of character this side and its coaches are made of. However, given the events of the last week and South Africa’s continuing dismal record away from home we think this is France’s match for the taking. Consequently we expect to see France take it by six points in front of a delirious home crowd drunk on the fever of the World Cup bid!
As always we include the 1014’s preview of this weekend’s action, and continue to thoroughly enjoy the vast body of work, especially in terms of detailed analysis that these two fine gentlemen, Steve and Gareth, are putting out. For some in-depth understanding of who’s who in the pot when it comes to Test Rugby and the buildup to the World Cup you can’t go wrong having a look at some of their excellent work. Enjoy, give them a big thumbs up and make sure you subscribe to keep this excellent content coming!